Originally posted by c.d.
View Post
This isnt rocket science. You have evidence that is official. You have evidence that is not. You have evidence that is circumstantial, and you have evidence that is corroborated, and as such, more trustworthy. You have evidence about the characters themselves, about the particular moment in time that is being scrutinzed, info about the area, friends and known associates. You have geographical data. You have pre-events local histories. You have opinions, and conclusions and observations.
The only way you can safely make any determinations about specific evidence is how it fits with other established evidence. What it suggests. An example would be coming across a man holding a knife and standing over someone who had just been stabbed. No-one else is visible in the area. Based on just that evidence, do you know for a fact it was that knife and that man that was used to attack the victim on the ground?...No. But the evidence does suggest that is the most probable answer. Thats how you construct a workable theory......accumulate all that is known, and find within the most probable answer. When I do that and find I have come to a different conclusion than you, I have to assume that the most probable reason for you not to see or grasp the logic of an idea is because you have no idea all the factors I used to make that most probable determination. Or you have used similar data and for whatever reason cant connect that to the idea presented to you.
-A man holding a knife
-No one else in sight
-Standing over the victim
-Obvious cut or puncture wound(s) on victim
Just on that small amount of data,..... without knowing if the man and victim knew each other, or where the knife came from, or whether they were both there at the exact time the stabbing happened, of if these 2 people or anyone else was seen by any other witness with a view of that spot, or whatever else you might want to know to determine what happened, it appears most probable that the man with the knife used it to stab or cut the victim on the ground. If I was a policeman, I would hold him for further questioning.
Something I might expect as rebuttal from you would be...well, since we dont know if the actual killer left before being seen, and we dont know if the man holding the knife just pulled it out of the victim, and we dont know if the victim fell into the knife by accident, there would be no evidence or reason to suspect the man holding the knife is most probably the killer. We would need the other questions answered to know whether he was likely the killer or not, so just take his contact information and let the man go on his way.
Although I would agree with the idea that all the questions must be answered before any firm conclusions can be made, I believe that the evidence such as it is is good enough to hold the man on suspicion. My preliminary conclusion, barring any contradictory evidence that may yet surface in the discovery aspect of the investigation, would be to hold him as person of interest until that additional information can be determined. But I believe that he most probably was the killer, based on just the face value evidence of the sighting.
In the absence of any contradictory evidence, witness accounts, physical or circumstantial evidence, I have said and stand by a declaration that Israel Schwartz story was not considered as "wholly believed" or of any value to Strides Inquest into her death. Why...because his story is not on any records pertaining to the Inquest, his story is not mentioned, submitted in written form, given by proxy, nothing.....and the details of his sighting, IF truly believed, would have made his sighting THE most important of ALL the witness accounts in this murder investigation.
Leave a comment: