Window of Time for Nichols murder

[drstrange169]

>>If Paul nevertheless came close to the neck, it would be hard for Lechmere to say "No! Don´t touch the neck!", would it not?<<


In control means not letting that situation arise.


>>Once again, there is also the factor of the perceived invincibility many serial killers speak of. Lechmere could well have thought "there is no risk involved, and I can rule the day whatever happens here", they way that ilk generally reason.<<

I can certainly see that agruement, but again, it falls down against you own theory, if he had perceived invincibility, he wouldn't be worrying to much about Mizen, only someone in fear would need to lie.

[drstrange169]

>>>C/ Lechmere head Paul from 40 yards away. Why didn´t the others do that? They were as close.<<

>>Good question, Off hand, I don't know, unlike you I'm happy to admit anomalies instead of trying bluff my way through them. Anomalies are not evidence, they are just unknown things awaiting an answer.<<

Having done some tests I'm now able to answer this. Somebody outside is able to hear soft footfalls that cannot be heard inside. Seems pretty obvious, but I did want to test it first.

[drstrange169]

>The main reason why i joined this site around a week ago, was to put forward different scenarios, theories and ideas which i deliberately want to be challenged and countered, in order to flush out as many different aspects of the case as possible. There is always new things to discover and sometimes asking questions is the best way to move forward<<

A perfect reason for using these boards.

[FrankO]

I keep saying that Lechmere will have heard Paul from 130 yards away.

Just as I keep saying that I agree that a guilty Lechmere will have heard him at that point because he had every reason to listen for sounds (unlike an innocent Lechmere). What I wouldn't agree to is that a guilty Lechmere would have decided to wait for Paul right after hearing him for the first time. He would have had enough time to get away (more than a minute) and he would have realised that. The corner of the board school was only 40 yards away. That he would have waited for Paul just to play games while he had enough time to get away belongs to stuff in Hollywood films as far as I'm concerned.

But anyway, my point to Patrick and others was that Paul wasn't 40 yards off when a guilty Lechmere would have heard him for the first time (as he and others keep writing), but at the very least some 60 yards.

[Elamarna]

Frank,
Can I ask what you base the at least 60 yards on?
I am more than open to any suggestion, once I see how it is arrived at.

He Paul does not give any distance and Lechmere says around 40, so I wonder where 60 comes from.

Or are you saying, he must be at least 60 if Lechmere is guilty and not telling the truth?

Steve

[drstrange169]

Key to point out here is that no human can judge distance by sound alone, it's simply not possible, therefore the 40 yards needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[FrankO]

Frank,
Can I ask what you base the at least 60 yards on?
I am more than open to any suggestion, once I see how it is arrived at.

He Paul does not give any distance and Lechmere says around 40, so I wonder where 60 comes from.

Or are you saying, he must be at least 60 if Lechmere is guilty and not telling the truth?

Steve

Hi Steve,

I assume that, if about 40 yards would have been the distance at which Lechmere could discern Paul, then this would be about the same for Paul. Even though that's just supposition on my part, it seems realistic enough to me.

Then, assuming this is, in fact, realistic, Lechmere would have to do a number of things right after hearing Paul for the first time. Like, at least, covering the abdominal wounds, move to the head, cut the throat twice, put the knife away and move away from the body as silently as possible and take his position in the middle of the street and wait for Paul.

I estimate that this would have taken about 15 seconds at least. Supposing that Paul walked at a speed of 6.3 km/hr, Paul would have covered about 26 meters in 15 seconds before he was at a distance of about 40 yards. Which would make the distance between the 2 man some 60 yards when L. heard P. for the first time.

All the best,
Frank

[Elamarna]

With you now Frank, i agree with that in general.
I work in mph so had to convert that 6.3, and it's 3.9
I have worked to slightly slower, my preferred rate being a tad over 3.5mph, or 5.6kph.

Both are above average and I can work with either.

I have in my work include a range from 3 up to 5mph.

Thanks

Steve

[Herlock Sholmes]

Then, assuming this is, in fact, realistic, Lechmere would have to do a number of things right after hearing Paul for the first time. Like, at least, covering the abdominal wounds, move to the head, cut the throat twice, put the knife away and move away from the body as silently as possible and take his position in the middle of the street and wait for Paul.

Hello Frank

I don’t understand why Lechmere would have to have done any of these things after hearing Paul for the first time? Couldn’t he have already finished what he was doing when he first heard him approach? Also you’re saying that the abdominal wounds were inflicted before the throat (or neck as Fish would insist) wounds? Is that realistic?

[Elamarna]

I assume Frank is giving a worse case option, as per the suggestions made by pro Lechmere people

Steve

[FrankO]

Hello Frank

I don’t understand why Lechmere would have to have done any of these things after hearing Paul for the first time? Couldn’t he have already finished what he was doing when he first heard him approach? Also you’re saying that the abdominal wounds were inflicted before the throat (or neck as Fish would insist) wounds? Is that realistic?

Hi Herlock,

It's as Steve's supposing: I'm giving a worse case option with Christer's theory in mind. That is, if Lechmere's was guilty and wanted to stay & bluff it out, he had to do these things. There was no need to do these before hearing Paul. On the "abdominal wounds camera first", I alsof follow Christer's theory, but not because I necessarily believe it.

All the best,
Frank

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi Herlock,

It's as Steve's supposing: I'm giving a worse case option with Christer's theory in mind. That is, if Lechmere's was guilty and wanted to stay & bluff it out, he had to do these things. There was no need to do these before hearing Paul. On the "abdominal wounds camera first", I alsof follow Christer's theory, but not because I necessarily believe it.

All the best,
Frank

Cheers Frank

Ive never gone for the idea of abdominal mutilations first. Makes little sense to me. Surely thoat cutting achieves the priority most efficiently- silence then death?

[JeffHamm]

Cheers Frank

Ive never gone for the idea of abdominal mutilations first. Makes little sense to me. Surely thoat cutting achieves the priority most efficiently- silence then death?

And, if JtR has strangled the victims first, as is generally believed, he's already targeted the throat and is right there when he places them on the ground as all the evidence points to their throats being cut while prone, so if he's strangled them to the ground, then he's right beside the throat when he lets go and gets his knife out. If he's going to cut the throat, it seems that's the opportune time to do it.

- Jeff

[Herlock Sholmes]

And, if JtR has strangled the victims first, as is generally believed, he's already targeted the throat and is right there when he places them on the ground as all the evidence points to their throats being cut while prone, so if he's strangled them to the ground, then he's right beside the throat when he lets go and gets his knife out. If he's going to cut the throat, it seems that's the opportune time to do it.

- Jeff

Makes sense to me Jeff. Abdomen first just doesn’t add up.

[JeffHamm]

Hi,

I'm having a hard time finding Paul's address (30 Foster Street) as I can't seem to locate a Foster Street in the area? I've found Cross/Lechmere's address, and have marked that in blue and a probable route from his home to the location of Nichol's body. I've marked the other locations of the C5 for reference points as well.

What I would like to try and put together are a few markers, roughly indicating important locations (PC Mizen is reported somewhere around the end of Hanbury Street, which is fairly close, and so the 4 minutes (which Paul gives as an upper limit) seems about right given the distance Lechmere/Cross travelled in what people have been arguing should take about 7ish. I've put Mizen at the east end of Hanbury Street, as the exact location seems unclear, but perhaps there is a more precise location generally agreed upon? The distance (in pixels as the map doesn't have a scale bar) is about 100 pixels (99.4) from Cross to Nichols, and about 70 (69.4) from Nichols to the ? where I've placed Mizen. 4/7 is 0.57, while 70/100 is 0.7. Not a huge discrepancy, and if Cross/Lechmere and Paul both walk a bit faster (as they are now both delayed trying to get to work, and looking for a police officer), can be easily accounted for. Even if Mizen is thought to be a bit further along it's a big problem, particularly if the 7 minutes for Cross/Lechmere is longer than it would take him to traverse that distance and it only took him 6, for example. Everything is well withing error tolerances I think. Regardless, I'm trying to get a better handle on the movements of various people, and the locations they went to. (i.e. where was the ambulance obtained from? Where was Dr. Llewellyn's house? Where was PC Neil's beat, PC Thain? and so forth.

I'm sure someone who's done a more thorough research on this has probably done something similar already, but I can't find anything here on the site, and seeing the space and locations laid out, with time lines and reported locations, would be a big help I think.

- Jeff