Suspect breakdown

[Abby Normal]

I would be curious to know how you break down the possibility of suspects for JtR. In my view, I break it down as thus:

60% chance-unknown/unamed person. As in there name has never surfaced in any way with the case

20% chance-it was one of my top 5 named suspects: Chapman, Kosminski, Bury, Hutchinson, James Kelly

20% chance-other possible named suspects, witness, etc. or anyone who's name is associated with the case. for example-Barnett, Letchmere, Bowyer, one of the PC's, etc.

How do you see it?

[Phil H]

I never tried to calculate it in this way before, Abby.

I have to make one caveat before Ido so: I am increasingly of a mind that "Jack" only killed Nichols, Chapman and Eddowes, plus maybe McKenzie and possibly other earlier/later unidentified victims. I prefer now to identify Kidney as the killer of Stride, and a close/intimate friend of MJK. But I have equally not ruled out JtR as killing all canonicals and more.

So on the basis that these relate to "Jack" killer of Nichols, Chapman, Eddowes, I'd say:

70%-80% Kosminski - or someone like him (maybe wholly unknown today), i.e. a poor, probably Jewish or foreign local man with a mental problem;

5% someone we know but have never really looked at properly for some reason (i.e. the murderer is string us in the face - Barnett, Fleming, Hutchinson, Donovan - lodging house keeper; Lechmere/Cross) maybe because of lack of evidence and we are not assessing the case the right way;

15% - a killer somehow connected with "politics"/intelligence, Fenian, Irish or other for some or all of the killings. There are enough comments by senior players to suggests that something was going on, and potential clues in the odd way that Kosminski; Ostrog and MJD are brought into focus - there are anomalies here. The SB registers if released might allow us to assess this better.

I have not yet been able to weigh up suggestions about Le Grand; and wholly eliminate royal conspiracies, toff and doctors.

I might want to revise this marginally given more thought.


Phil