Your top 3 suspects?

[DYLAN]

Hi all.

My personal top three suspects would be as below.

1. Druitt

2. Kosminski

3. Any viable suspect that Tom Wescott comes up with. I've got a lot of faith in Tom.

Best regards all.

DYLAN

[j.r-ahde]

Hello you all!


I will add mine;

1. A common man, unidentified to the LVP police officials and us!

And very, very far behind;

2. A wanna-be-doctor.

Even further behind;

3. A twisted police official.

However, I am open-minded to any seriously presented views to this question!

All the best
Jukka

[Steve S]

1) Kosminski/Cohen
2) Bury
3)Un-named Local

For what it's worth,I think the bit often overlooked in MacNaughten is 'Any of whom would be more likely'...Bearing in mind the reason the Memorandum was written,I don't think he did much research....Probably just asked around..'Who do you think it might have been?'...And put three down........

[Ben]

Hi David,

On the subject of Fleming's height, I admit to being somewhat troubled by the revelation that the information was committed to paper not by a registrar, as I had suspected initially, but by one of the examining doctors - Patterson or White, I can't recall which. Since the doctor in question would undoubtedly have recorded his own observations, it's difficult to see how an error could have been made, or more specifically, how a "6" could possibly have entered into the equation if Fleming's real height was only 5"7. I begin to wonder now if the entry was supposed to read 6"1.

What think ye?

Regardless, Joseph Fleming is still comfortably second on my list of three...then a long sea mile...then possibly Kosminski or Bury depending on my mood. No prizes for guessing my preference for the top spot.

All the best,
Ben

[Garry Wroe]

Toppy?

[Stephen Thomas]

Or perhaps SWANSON stating "KOSMINSKI WAS THE NAME"?

Or something to that effect with a different pencil.

[spyglass]

top three suspects

I certainly have a top three who JTR was'nt

1. Chapman

2. Ostrog

3. Cohen

[DVV]

Hi Ben,

what about "160 years" ? Same pen ?

Amitiés,
David

[DVV]

Toppy?

Hi Garry,

Toppy's list would be interesting.
At least, we know who is on the top!

Amitiés,
David

edit : you think the "7" is a "1", Ben ? Hmmm...

[Septic Blue]

First Choice:

- Male
- Age: 24-to-48
- Charles Booth's Socio-Economic Class*: 'C' - 'F'
- Gentile
- Resided within one 'Standard Deviation' of the murder-site 'Mean-Center' (Red)**

Second Choice:

- Male
- Age: 21-to-51
- Charles Booth's Socio-Economic Class*: 'B' - 'G'
- Gentile or Sephardic Jew
- Resided within two 'Standard Deviations' of the murder-site 'Mean-Center' (Red/Orange)**

Third Choice:

- Male
- Age: 18-to-54
- Charles Booth's Socio-Economic Class*: 'A' - 'H'
- Gentile, Sephardic Jew, or perhaps Ashkenazi Jew
- Resided within three 'Standard Deviations' of the murder-site 'Mean-Center' (Red/Orange/Yellow)**

---------

* Charles Booth's delineations of socio-economic classification …

"In Poverty":

Class 'A': "Vicious" (i.e. vice-ridden); "Semi-Criminal"
Class 'B': "Very Poor"
Class 'C': "Poor" - Irregular Income
Class 'D': "Poor" - Regular but Inadequate Income

"In Comfort":

Class 'E': "Above the 'Line of Poverty'" - Regular "Standard" Income
Class 'F': "Highly Skilled Labour"
Class 'G': "Lower Middle-Class"
Class 'H': "Upper Middle-Class"

---------

** ...


Cumulative Probability Distribution (0.00 - 3.00 Standard Deviations) (Elliptical) (Click to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

Red: 0.00 - 1.00 Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center
Semi-Major Axis (i.e. 'Long Radius'): 707.53 Yards
Semi-Minor Axis (i.e. 'Short Radius'): 501.83 Yards
Area: 0.36 Square Miles
Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 63.68% *
Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 31.84% **

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 63.68% would occur within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 1.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of the impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical area, should have been 63.68%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 31.84% probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 1.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

Red / Orange: 0.00 - 2.00 Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center
Semi-Major Axis (i.e. 'Long Radius'): 1,415.06 Yards
Semi-Minor Axis (i.e. 'Short Radius'): 1,003.67 Yards
Area: 1.44 Square Miles
Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 89.80% *
Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 57.60% **

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 89.80% would occur within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 2.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of the impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical area, should have been 89.80%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 57.60% probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 2.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

Red / Orange / Yellow: 0.00 - 3.00 Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center
Semi-Major Axis (i.e. 'Long Radius'): 2,122.58 Yards
Semi-Minor Axis (i.e. 'Short Radius'): 1,505.50 Yards
Area: 3.24 Square Miles
Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 97.00% *
Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 75.12% **

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 97.00% would occur within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 3.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of the impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical area, should have been 97.00%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 75.12% probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 3.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

---------

Weighing-In the 'Suspects'

I am 'jumping ahead' of my own presentation, but feel that the following 'quoted' analysis is best-suited for this thread.

In a 'nutshell' ...

- Robert Mann (Whitechapel Union Infirmary): 70th Percentile

- Robert Mann (Whitechapel Union Infirmary Mortuary): 76th Percentile

- Aaron Kosminski (34 Yalford Street): 78th Percentile

- George Hutchinson & Joseph Fleming (aka 'James Evans') (Victoria Home for Working Men): 89th Percentile

- John Simmonds (60 Wentworth Street): 95th Percentile

I am still in the process of compiling my "Informal Presentation". The following analysis will therefore require some clarification/explanation. So, ask questions, folks: … I will try to answer them.


Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical Perspective) (Click to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

From the outside, in …

...

[Tom_Wescott]

My personal top three suspects would be as below.

1. Druitt

2. Kosminski

3. Any viable suspect that Tom Wescott comes up with. I've got a lot of faith in Tom.

Wow, that's awesome, Dylan. Thanks. I just last night typed your name into the acknowledgements of an essay I'm finishing up.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Chris]

SB

Just curious about your comments about Sephardic versus Ashkenazi Jews. Why do you think a Sephardic Jew would be a more likely candidate?

[Septic Blue]

Why do you think a Sephardic Jew would be a more likely candidate?

Admittedly; I am basing that assumption on a generalization:

That a Sephardic Jew who had immigrated from Amsterdam or Hamburg twenty years earlier, would have been less conspicuous in the vicinities of some of the murder-sites (i.e. George Yard, Buck's Row, and Dorset Street), than would an Ashkenazi Jew who had immigrated from Warsaw or Moscow just five years earlier.

[johns]

1 - Bury
2 - Cohen/Kaminsky/Kosminski
3 - A. N. Other

[DVV]

Hi Johns,

Cohen, Kaminsky and Kosminski are 3 different guys, aren't they ?

Amitiés,
David