Broad Shoulders, Elizabeth's Killer ?

[Herlock Sholmes]

And presumably Diemschutz could read English?
So, Schwartz who couldn't read English mistaking Batty St. for Berner St. may not be so 'off the wall' as it first sounds?

Absolutely Wick.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Therefore, you should have no problem providing an approximate time for Goldstein, based on your 12:55 Diemschitz arrival hypothetical.

How about I do it for you. Let's say 6 to 7 minutes prior to 12:55,

Why not 30 seconds before, or a minute before or a minute and a half before or two minutes before? Apart from the fact that it doesn’t get you back far enough into potential Schwartz territory of course.

Mortimer sees Goldstein. So just before 12:50, she sees a man enter Berner St from Commercial Rd, walk down the street on her side, crossing over in the vicinity of the club, and then pass out of her sight as he rounds the board school corner into Fairclough St, proceeding on to his residence in Christian St, down near one of the railway arches. Now the mystery is, why didn't she see Israel Schwartz at a similar time, enter Berner St from Commercial Rd, walk down on her side until crossing over in the vicinity of the club, and then pass out of her sight when turning into Fairclough St, before running to the railway arch?

Fanny Mortimer saw Goldstein because he passed while she was on her doorstep. She didn’t see Schwartz because she was indoors when he arrived. This isn’t difficult unless you are deliberately trying to make it so.

[Herlock Sholmes]

What never ceases to amaze me is that some people are so reticent to accept something that some might consider coincidental and yet they have absolutely no problem in accepting that a man falsely placed himself at the scene of a murder. How often has that occurred? How often have we read of a street murder to find false witnesses outside of a novel?

So something vanishingly unlikely is a definite possibility and yet something as simple as a short incident occurring when no one else is around is impossible.

How many rabbit-holes do we have to keep disappearing down?

[Sunny Delight]

What never ceases to amaze me is that some people are so reticent to accept something that some might consider coincidental and yet they have absolutely no problem in accepting that a man falsely placed himself at the scene of a murder. How often has that occurred? How often have we read of a street murder to find false witnesses outside of a novel?

So something vanishingly unlikely is a definite possibility and yet something as simple as a short incident occurring when no one else is around is impossible.

How many rabbit-holes do we have to keep disappearing down?

I wouldn't even entertain the notion of a club conspiracy. That is for the flat earther's or we didn't land on the moon contingent.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I wouldn't even entertain the notion of a club conspiracy. That is for the flat earther's or we didn't land on the moon contingent.

Agreed Sunny.

[Sunny Delight]

Agreed Sunny.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves however. A lot of the Police documentation has not survived and we are relying on what has survived, memoirs and press reports of the time. It is far from ideal. The City files didn't survive at all due to the Blitz. It is far from ideal and our picture is very incomplete.

As an aside and if any of the researchers are reading this I am from Ireland and have an interest in the Fenian movement in Ireland. I recently came across a snippet which referred to a George Hutchinson in the 1890's. Now it wasn't connected to the Fenian headline. It was underneath but it referred to a George Hutchinson who had returned from England and had died in an accident. Maybe worth further discussion on the Hutchinson thread.

[JeffHamm]

The length of Berner Street (from Commercial to Fairclough) is about 418 ft, which at a walking pace would take approximately 1m 30 seconds (1 m 29 seconds at 3.2 mph). The entire event described by Schwartz takes place as he traverses that distance, and he does say he runs at some point, so he enters and leaves the area in under 1m 30s by some small amount.

The statements we have provide a number of "holes" in the timeline in which it is more than possible to place a 1m 30s event, so the idea that Schwartz must be lying is uncalled for. Given the imprecision of Fanny's statements, I think one could build a case for the "Schwartz event" to have occurred either before or after her vigil on her doorstep, and there would be pro's and con's to either choice depending upon how chooses to interpret other statements. In the end, though, the best we can probably do is come up with two alternative sequences, both of which deserve equal consideration, meaning neither of which can be said to be the better choice even though we know at least one must be wrong.

When I put together the simulation of the Berner Street event, I opted to go with the idea that all sightings purported to be of Stride were correct, just to see if it is impossible for them to be. I found it wasn't, and there are patterns of movements by Stride that are not unreasonable (in my opinion) that would result in the pattern of witness statements we have available. That doesn't mean the simulation must be what happened, though, it just means what I present is one viable option that cannot be ruled out.

Since the time I put that together, there have been a lot of interesting discussions, and there are a few bits that I would probably adjust, some other events that could be added (earlier and later), and so forth. Berner Street is very complicated, with all the witnesses to try and include, but it is also the most interesting to work on as a result. At some point, when I have the time and energy, I hope to update it, but until then I do think it is useful to view it and to see that the events as described are not really so hard to piece together. While I went with B.S. kills Stride, if one doesn't prefer that notion it is still useful as one can get a feel for how much more time is available (at least in the version I present) to insert other ideas.

Anyway, perhaps the most important point I'm trying to make is to keep in mind the Schwart event is a pretty short period of time, and we have some reasonably large holes that could easily contain it. It doesn't really matter which hole you think it best fits in, but to argue there's no place for it is, I'm afraid, not true.

- Jeff

[DJA]

What is the location of this man in the police report? The opposite side of the street to the man with the woman who shouts 'Lipski'. Therefore, to what doorway do you refer?

Schwartz crossed Berner Street,hence Pipeman was then on the opposite side.

[Sunny Delight]

The length of Berner Street (from Commercial to Fairclough) is about 418 ft, which at a walking pace would take approximately 1m 30 seconds (1 m 29 seconds at 3.2 mph). The entire event described by Schwartz takes place as he traverses that distance, and he does say he runs at some point, so he enters and leaves the area in under 1m 30s by some small amount.

The statements we have provide a number of "holes" in the timeline in which it is more than possible to place a 1m 30s event, so the idea that Schwartz must be lying is uncalled for. Given the imprecision of Fanny's statements, I think one could build a case for the "Schwartz event" to have occurred either before or after her vigil on her doorstep, and there would be pro's and con's to either choice depending upon how chooses to interpret other statements. In the end, though, the best we can probably do is come up with two alternative sequences, both of which deserve equal consideration, meaning neither of which can be said to be the better choice even though we know at least one must be wrong.

When I put together the simulation of the Berner Street event, I opted to go with the idea that all sightings purported to be of Stride were correct, just to see if it is impossible for them to be. I found it wasn't, and there are patterns of movements by Stride that are not unreasonable (in my opinion) that would result in the pattern of witness statements we have available. That doesn't mean the simulation must be what happened, though, it just means what I present is one viable option that cannot be ruled out.

Since the time I put that together, there have been a lot of interesting discussions, and there are a few bits that I would probably adjust, some other events that could be added (earlier and later), and so forth. Berner Street is very complicated, with all the witnesses to try and include, but it is also the most interesting to work on as a result. At some point, when I have the time and energy, I hope to update it, but until then I do think it is useful to view it and to see that the events as described are not really so hard to piece together. While I went with B.S. kills Stride, if one doesn't prefer that notion it is still useful as one can get a feel for how much more time is available (at least in the version I present) to insert other ideas.

Anyway, perhaps the most important point I'm trying to make is to keep in mind the Schwart event is a pretty short period of time, and we have some reasonably large holes that could easily contain it. It doesn't really matter which hole you think it best fits in, but to argue there's no place for it is, I'm afraid, not true.

- Jeff

Difficult to see on my phone but it is very intriguing. Two things immediately struck me. PC Smith must have taken a few minutes at least to leave Berner Street. Secondly Smith then passes the bottom of Berner Street during his next rotation. This was something I hadn't considered.

On the simulation it appears you have Mortimer coming to her door and going back inside before Schwartz and BS man entered Berner Street. Are you placing the time of the BS man attack at 12:55am.

[Herlock Sholmes]

The length of Berner Street (from Commercial to Fairclough) is about 418 ft, which at a walking pace would take approximately 1m 30 seconds (1 m 29 seconds at 3.2 mph). The entire event described by Schwartz takes place as he traverses that distance, and he does say he runs at some point, so he enters and leaves the area in under 1m 30s by some small amount.

The statements we have provide a number of "holes" in the timeline in which it is more than possible to place a 1m 30s event, so the idea that Schwartz must be lying is uncalled for. Given the imprecision of Fanny's statements, I think one could build a case for the "Schwartz event" to have occurred either before or after her vigil on her doorstep, and there would be pro's and con's to either choice depending upon how chooses to interpret other statements. In the end, though, the best we can probably do is come up with two alternative sequences, both of which deserve equal consideration, meaning neither of which can be said to be the better choice even though we know at least one must be wrong.

When I put together the simulation of the Berner Street event, I opted to go with the idea that all sightings purported to be of Stride were correct, just to see if it is impossible for them to be. I found it wasn't, and there are patterns of movements by Stride that are not unreasonable (in my opinion) that would result in the pattern of witness statements we have available. That doesn't mean the simulation must be what happened, though, it just means what I present is one viable option that cannot be ruled out.

Since the time I put that together, there have been a lot of interesting discussions, and there are a few bits that I would probably adjust, some other events that could be added (earlier and later), and so forth. Berner Street is very complicated, with all the witnesses to try and include, but it is also the most interesting to work on as a result. At some point, when I have the time and energy, I hope to update it, but until then I do think it is useful to view it and to see that the events as described are not really so hard to piece together. While I went with B.S. kills Stride, if one doesn't prefer that notion it is still useful as one can get a feel for how much more time is available (at least in the version I present) to insert other ideas.

Anyway, perhaps the most important point I'm trying to make is to keep in mind the Schwart event is a pretty short period of time, and we have some reasonably large holes that could easily contain it. It doesn't really matter which hole you think it best fits in, but to argue there's no place for it is, I'm afraid, not true.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Difficult to see on my phone but it is very intriguing. Two things immediately struck me. PC Smith must have taken a few minutes at least to leave Berner Street. Secondly Smith then passes the bottom of Berner Street during his next rotation. This was something I hadn't considered.

On the simulation it appears you have Mortimer coming to her door and going back inside before Schwartz and BS man entered Berner Street. Are you placing the time of the BS man attack at 12:55am.

Hi Sunny,

I think it works out to around there in the version I put together. I intended, but never got around to, going through the statements again and making some other choices that one could justify, to see what works if we place the Schwartz event before Mortimer's vigil. That gets a bit trickier if one keeps the footsteps she hears as being PC Smith, as one has to put the event after Smith and before Fanny comes out. It is probably do-able, but it will take some time to ensure that everything continues to fit within the constraints of the statements we have (once one takes into account reasonable error margins associated with witness statements).

The Berner Street murder is interesting to focus on because of the challenge it presents of trying to make sense of what we have, knowing that what we have is also going to be a bit wrong in some ways (as witness accounts always are).

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Sunny,

I think it works out to around there in the version I put together. I intended, but never got around to, going through the statements again and making some other choices that one could justify, to see what works if we place the Schwartz event before Mortimer's vigil. That gets a bit trickier if one keeps the footsteps she hears as being PC Smith, as one has to put the event after Smith and before Fanny comes out. It is probably do-able, but it will take some time to ensure that everything continues to fit within the constraints of the statements we have (once one takes into account reasonable error margins associated with witness statements).

The Berner Street murder is interesting to focus on because of the challenge it presents of trying to make sense of what we have, knowing that what we have is also going to be a bit wrong in some ways (as witness accounts always are).

- Jeff

Oh, and I should have mentioned, since I put the original simulation together, there has been some interesting discussions with regards to PC Smith's beat, and options as to how and at what point he covered some of the streets. Playing around with different versions of his beat can influence the estimation of where he would be at some critical points in time, which in turn leads to a number of possible "models", each with their own interesting specific implications on some of the finer details. At some point I hope to be able to explore a number of these options, with the objective of trying to work out what ideas are pretty robust against those variations, and what ideas become contingent upon making one choice or another. The more robust something is, then the more confident we can be that's "about right", while the bits that are contingent upon specific choices need to be viewed with a bit more caution.

- Jeff

[NotBlamedForNothing]

The length of Berner Street (from Commercial to Fairclough) is about 418 ft, which at a walking pace would take approximately 1m 30 seconds (1 m 29 seconds at 3.2 mph). The entire event described by Schwartz takes place as he traverses that distance, and he does say he runs at some point, so he enters and leaves the area in under 1m 30s by some small amount.

The statements we have provide a number of "holes" in the timeline in which it is more than possible to place a 1m 30s event, so the idea that Schwartz must be lying is uncalled for. Given the imprecision of Fanny's statements, I think one could build a case for the "Schwartz event" to have occurred either before or after her vigil on her doorstep, and there would be pro's and con's to either choice depending upon how chooses to interpret other statements. In the end, though, the best we can probably do is come up with two alternative sequences, both of which deserve equal consideration, meaning neither of which can be said to be the better choice even though we know at least one must be wrong.

Why does Schwartz's traversal of the street define the beginning and end of the event? He claims to have seen a woman standing in the gateway. If the issue is why did no one see or hear anything related to what Schwartz described, then we must first deal with Stride supposedly standing in the gateway. How long had she been there? Once Schwartz leaves the scene, the event does not come to end, only Schwartz's witnessing of it. The remaining actors, including any that Schwartz was unaware of, keep on acting.

Most of this cannot be modelled by simple calculations, but that is not an excuse to ignore these elements.

[NotBlamedForNothing]

Why not 30 seconds before, or a minute before or a minute and a half before or two minutes before? Apart from the fact that it doesn’t get you back far enough into potential Schwartz territory of course.

Yes, it does - ~12:44-12:54.

By the way, why is the notion of Fanny locking up very soon before Diemschitz arrived, being entertained? Have you been reading i caught Crippen?

[NotBlamedForNothing]

Schwartz crossed Berner Street,hence Pipeman was then on the opposite side.

Swanson's report and Home Office correspondence consistently refer to the opposite side of the street as meaning opposite to the man who assaults the woman in the gateway.

The man who threw the woman down called out apparently to the man on the opposite side of the road 'Lipski' & then Schwartz walked away...

The man calling out 'Lipski' is apparently directing it at a man on the opposite of the street to where he and the woman is. If your interpretation was correct, he would instead be calling out to a man on the same side of the street.

Pipeman did not come out of the doorway of the Nelson, which had closed at midnight.