Geographic Profile

[Septic Blue]

St. Mary Matfelon

In my opinion, the epicenter of the crimes was St Mary Matfelon, which is the very center of your red zone. I think the Ripper may have hung around this area, and possibly considered it his jumping off point.

What was in that area? Is it known?

'St. Mary Matfelon' was a colloquial reference to the Parish Church of St. Mary Whitechapel. Its origin stems from the dedication, by which the predecessor chapel that once stood in its place was so named: 'The Chapel of St. Mary Matfelon' - a medieval chapel of ease, for those parishioners that lived in the western-most reaches of the Parish of St. Dunstan Stepney; the chapel, from which the area's name, 'Whitechapel', was derived.

With the establishment of Whitechapel as a Civil Parish (c. 1329), the chapel was re-dedicated and consecrated as 'The Parish Church of St. Mary Whitechapel', not 'St. Mary Matfelon'.*

* This; from everything that I have been able to gather, from my research, thus far.

An image that I compiled about three years ago …


The Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, County of Middlesex (Click to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2010

The Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, County of Middlesex*

* A very small portion of the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel lay within the City of London, until becoming part of the Parish of St. Botolph without Aldgate, in 1900:

- ___ 43-47 Aldgate High Street, Ecclesiastical Parish of St. Botolph without Aldgate, Civil Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, Portsoken Ward, City of London

- ___ 2, 4, 6 Mansell Street, Ecclesiastical Parish of St. Botolph without Aldgate, Civil Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, Portsoken Ward, City of London

- Population (1891 Census): 42

The area is not color-shaded, in the image above; but can be seen at the very western edge of the 'Blue' region, on the south side of 'Butcher's Row' (i.e. Aldgate High Street).

Yellow: The Ecclesiastical Parish of St. Jude, Civil Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel
--- Purple: St. Jude's Church

Blue: The Ecclesiastical Parish of St. Mary, Civil Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel
--- Purple: St. Mary's Church; i.e. the Parish Church of St. Mary Whitechapel***

Red: The Ecclesiastical Parish of St. Mark, Civil Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel
--- Purple: St. Mark's Church
--- Blue: Leman Street Police Station

Green: The Ecclesiastical Parish of St. Paul, Civil Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel
--- Purple: St. Paul's Church

*** If the above image is enlarged in flickr, the color-shaded 'footprint' of this church-edifice, which was destroyed by German bombing, in ~1940(?), …


The Parish Church of St. Mary Whitechapel, c. 1937
Courtesy of Casebook.org 'Photo Archive'

… can be seen; along with the brick outline of this church-edifice, which was destroyed by fire, in ~1878(?).


The Parish Church of St. Mary Whitechapel, c. 1870
Courtesy of Casebook.org 'Photo Archive' / Tower Hamlets Local History Library

Again;

In my opinion, the epicenter of the crimes was St Mary Matfelon, which is the very center of your red zone. I think the Ripper may have hung around this area, and possibly considered it his jumping off point.

I am inclined to believe that had these murders continued to the point of there having been, … let's say … 100 murder-sites; that the 'Mean-Center' would have been in very close proximity to the 'population-weighted' 'Mean-Center' of the Gentile common-lodging-house 'quarter', consisting of …

- Dorset Street (excepting three-or-four Jewish dwellings, at its western end), and adjoining courts
- Little Paternoster Row
- 8 White's Row (the remainder having been overwhelmingly Jewish)
- Flower & Dean Street (excepting that portion occupied by Rothschild Buildings, i.e. its southwestern quarter), and adjoining courts
- George Street (excepting that portion occupied by Rothschild Buildings and Lolesworth Buildings, i.e. its western side), and adjoining courts
- Thrawl Street (excepting that portion occupied by Rothschild Buildings and Lolesworth Buildings, i.e. its western half), and adjoining courts
- Wentworth Street (northern side, between George Street and Brick Lane)

… all in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields

… and …

- Wentworth Street (southern side, between George Yard and Osborn Street)
- George Yard (northeastern quarter)

… both in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel

I have yet to pinpoint the 'population-weighted' 'Mean-Center' of the Gentile common-lodging-house 'quarter'; but my non 'population-weighted' preliminary analysis has inclined me to 'guess-timate' that it is located somewhere along the southwestern side of Flower & Dean Street, Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, more-or-less opposite Elizabeth Stride's last known address, at #32.

I should make note of the fact that the 'population-weighting' will be based on the numbers of female residents, between the ages of 18 and 55, as reported in the 1891 Census.

---------

My reason for viewing this particular 'Mean-Center' as having been the theoretical murder-site 'Epicenter', is that it can be rightfully seen as having been the 'Hub' of routine activity for the chosen prey of 'Jack the Ripper'.

I am inclined to believe that at any given hour of the day, this 'Hub' would have effectively been the 'Mean-Center' of a 'Normal Distribution' of middle-age, alcoholic, vagrant 'dollymops', going about their normal routines: e.g. begging, drinking, pick-pocketing, shop-lifting, hawking, soliciting, sleeping 'rough', 'dossing', etc.

While I believe that the victims of 'Jack the Ripper' were drawn to the specific sites of their respective murders, by totally random circumstances; I also tend to believe that they each died in areas where they were normally to be found, going about the sort of routine activities that characterized their collective identity: Again; that of the vagrant 'dollymop'.

If the distribution of 'hunter's prey', when grazing in the meadow, was characteristically 'Normal', then so too would the distribution of successful kill-sites have been, when the 'hunting season' had ended: 'Normal'.

At some point (time permitting, and God willing, I am afraid ...), I intend to adjust the 'Mean-Center' of my Geographic Profile, to incorporate a fractional 'weighting' of the 'Mean-Center' of the Gentile common-lodging-house 'quarter'.

[curious]

good golly!

At some point (time permitting, and God willing, I am afraid ...), I intend to adjust the 'Mean-Center' of my Geographic Profile, to incorporate a fractional 'weighting' of the 'Mean-Center' of the Gentile common-lodging-house 'quarter'.

thank you for sharing all this. Very interesting, even though it is far, far, far over my head.

curious

[JRJ]

Originally Posted by JRJ
I would suggest the following:
1) That you include the location of Eddowes Apron on Goulston Street as a data point, …

Originally Posted by Septic Blue
I first considered doing so when I began work on this endeavor (over a year ago). I have pondered the idea again, since reading your suggestion, but I must stand by my initial conclusion: That the apron 'deposit' in Goulston Street was not an observed 'event' in itself; rather it was a component of the Eddowes 'event'. Therefore, any factorization of this 'sub-event' into the overall 'equation' would have to be 'weighted' (e.g. 25% of a data point); thereby reducing the weight of the Eddowes murder-site accordingly (i.e. to 75% of a data point).

Since the point of this exercise is to help determine a likely locus from which the WM operated as Marauding rather than a Commuting Murderer, I therefore suggest that if we cannot use the Eddowes murder scene and the Goulston Street Apron loci as separate events that we then use the Apron as the sole loci (100%) for this event as it almost certainly was deposited by the killer as he retired for the night after the event (IIRC this was after 2:00 a.m.) Most though not all ripperologists would agree with this assessment.

Therefore, if it is not too much trouble I'm sure many would like to see the following scenarios:

Definition: C4 = C5 minus Eddowes Mitre Squre murder scene
Apron + C4
Apron + C4 + Martha Tabrum
Apron + C4 minus Not universally accepted victim Liz Stride
Apron + C4 minus Not universally accepted victim MJK
Apron + C4 minus Not universally accepted victims Liz Stride & MJK

With thanks and respect

JRJ

[robhouse]

In my opinion, what we have here is a geographic profile that is based on the likeliest Ripper victims—ie. the C5—which is entirely valid. (And I do not really see much point in getting sidetracked in debating if Stride and Kelly should be included in the profile, but that is just me.)

The apron, it seems to me, gives us a different type of information. The general "common sense" assumption has been that the apron tells us the direction JTR walked after the Eddowes murder in going toward his home—or a home base where he would feel safe. Now this seems to me to be a logical assumption, but there is simply no way of knowing for sure if this is the case. However, if we do utilize this as an assumption, then clearly it would have to be considered as a different type of data incorporated into the profile since it gives us a vector (?) or a trajectory as opposed to a single point. So if (again, a significant if) the killer was walking homeward, then I think we must assume we can eliminate at least a few parts of the heat map... specifically the areas around liverpool st, since if the Ripper was indeed going home after the Eddowes murder, then his home was not in that direction.

[wesleyenglish]

Just a quick note to let you know I'm following the thread still but am out of town on business so I don't have the time to respond to posts.

Rest assured, I will post various scenarios. My point in doing this is not to force any kind of "definitive" geographic profile upon the community (as if I could...). It's more an exercise to share some of my knowledge and encourage and equip the those who are interested to think about the case along the lines of spatial psychology. Many of you have knowledge and expertise in areas I don't so I find this dialog stimulating. So I'll run whatever scenarios I have time for and let all of you choose which ones are valid. Of course, I'll share my thoughts occasionally, especially if asked.

[Septic Blue]

Since the point of this exercise is to help determine a likely locus from which the WM operated as Marauding rather than a Commuting Murderer, I therefore suggest that if we cannot use the Eddowes murder scene and the Goulston Street Apron loci as separate events that we then use the Apron as the sole loci (100%) for this event as it almost certainly was deposited by the killer as he retired for the night after the event (IIRC this was after 2:00 a.m.) Most though not all ripperologists would agree with this assessment.

... the Apron deposit-site should not be included, unless as a 'subset' of the Eddowes murder-site.

Imagine the look of horror on Ben's face, if he were to see one of Wesley's 'Buffer Zones', extending from the doorway of 108-119 Wentworth Model Dwellings, to the main entrance to the Victoria Home for Working Men!

The inclusion of a 'Buffer Zone' in the immediate vicinity of the Apron drop-site, would be very misleading!

I'm still working my way through your report, but I thought I could help out a bit when I came across your mention of the Center of Minimum Distance (CMD).

My project is still in its infancy, and that portion, which I have presented thus far, is in dire need of some 'fine-tuning'. But, thank you for your interest; and many thanks, indeed, for your assistance with the CMD estimation.

I have provided more accurate 'eyeball' estimations of the six murder-sites under consideration.



(1)-(Black Dot) Martha Tabram (7 August 1888) First-Floor Stairway Landing of George Yard Buildings, George Yard, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 4' 18.45" West
Latitude: 51° 31' 0.60" North

(2)-(Black Dot) Mary Ann 'Polly' Nichols (31 August 1888) Gateway to Brown's Stable Yard, Buck's Row, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 3' 37.53" West
Latitude: 51° 31' 12.14" North

(3)-(Black Dot) Annie Chapman (8 September 1888) Back Yard of 29 Hanbury Street, Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 4' 21.40" West
Latitude: 51° 31' 13.67" North

(4)-(Black Dot) Elizabeth Stride (30 September 1888) Gateway to Dutfield's Yard, Berner Street, Parish of St. George in the East, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 3' 56.14" West
Latitude: 51° 30' 49.44" North

(5)-(Black Dot) Catherine Eddowes (30 September 1888) Southeast Corner of Mitre Square, Parish of St. James, Aldgate Ward, City of London
Longitude: 0° 4' 41.06" West
Latitude: 51° 30' 49.35" North

(6)-(Black Dot) Mary Jane Kelly (9 November 1888) Interior of 13 Miller's Court, Dorset Street, Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 4' 30.47" West
Latitude: 51° 31' 7.17" North

(Green Dot) Murder-Site Mean-Center
Southwest Corner of the Intersection of Wentworth Street and Osborn Street, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 4' 14.18" West
Latitude: 51° 31' 2.06" North

(Purple Dot) My 'Rough' Estimation of the CMD

…

I hope these coordinates will be of assistance.

... thank you very much for pointing out the error of my crime scene locations. When I first ran the profile I used some coordinates I found unsourced on the web with no idea how accurate they were. I will rerun the profile ... with the correct coordinates you so kindly provided.

(White Dot) Doorway to 108-119 Wentworth Model Dwellings, Goulston Street, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, County of Middlesex
Longitude: 0° 4' 30.13" West
Latitude: 51° 30' 59.29" North

The inclusion of the Tabram murder-site has put a bit of a 'stranglehold' on the 'red zone' / 'peak' of the profile. In fact, it has precipitated the establishment of two separate 'peaks':

- Alie Street (Western Portion); formerly Great Alie Street, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel
- Greatorex Street; formerly Great Garden Street, Hamlet of Mile End New Town / Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel

When Wesley has had the opportunity to adjust his original murder-site plots, for greater accuracy; the Kelly and Stride murder-sites, in particular, will almost assuredly increase the effect of that 'stranglehold', and thereby enhance the prevalence of each of the two distinct profile 'peaks'.

The emergence of multiple 'peaks'* would suggest a degree of complexity and ambition (i.e. a lack of conservatism) about the overall profile analysis, that would surely render it quite sensitive, to the effects of unwarranted and completely "inappropriate" data-point selection, and its correspondingly misleading 'Buffer Zones'.

*Some readers may wish to re-examine the area around Liverpool Street Station, as seen in Wesley's first profile (i.e. the 'Macnaghten-Five'). There is no secondary 'peak'! It is barely a 'bump'! --- In Wesley's second profile (i.e. the 'Macnaghten-Five' minus Stride), the area appears to be slightly higher, and does, in fact, constitute the end of a quarter-circular 'ridge'. But, there is still no secondary 'peak'!

Dare I raise the ghost of Stephenson by pointing out that the Royal London Hospital lies pretty much bang in the middle of the 'red zone'...probably not.

The London Hospital, Whitechapel Road, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, does not appear in the 'red zone', let alone "bang in the middle", in any of Wesley's three profiles, depicted thus far:

- 'Macnaghten-Five'
- 'Macnaghten-Five' minus Stride
- 'Macnaghten-Five' plus Tabram

[tnb]

The London Hospital, Whitechapel Road, Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, does not appear in the 'red zone', let alone "bang in the middle", in any of Wesley's three profiles, depicted thus far:

- 'Macnaghten-Five'
- 'Macnaghten-Five' minus Stride
- 'Macnaghten-Five' plus Tabram

In the original (Macnaghten) version the red zone is pretty close to the Hospital, but you are quite correct it never appears 'bang in the middle' as I said. I apologise. Considering my comment was a reference to Stephenson's alleged nightly acrobatics over the institution's wall and back again though (not to mention all the pattern and black magic stuff that often goes with Stephenson), it could be suggested that I was being a bit flippant in the first place. Couldn't it?

I mean no offence to anyone who believes they have credible reason for suspecting Stephenson, nor did I intend to mislead or upset septicblue or anyone else. The fact that I have been having an ongoing and productive conversation with Wesley - whose work we are meant to be discussing here after all - shows that at least he believes I have something to add to the discussion, and that while I may have my qualms about geo profiling to an extent, I apologise if my inclusion of a flippant closing remark has appeared to suggest I do not understand the topic. I do, even if I cannot quote coordinates at will.

[cats meat man]

Hello Wesley
Very interesting.From my research I believe that I have found a suspect that could fit this theory.James Hardiman was born in what is now known as Greatorex Street.He lived at one time or another at 29 Hanbury Street,Cudworth Street,near to Bucks Row and died at 29 Hanbury Street.His address at the time of the Whitechapel Murders in 1888 was 13 Heneage Street.
Many thanks
Rob

[wesleyenglish]

I'm back from my trip and ready to jump back into the conversation. I'll post the request profiles in separate posts to make viewing and replying easier.

I'd be interested to see how the inclusion of Tabram and McKenzie and the exclusion of Stride would alter the results.

Ben, do you have the coordinates for McKenzie's murder site or know where I can find them?

[wesleyenglish]

When Wesley has had the opportunity to adjust his original murder-site plots, for greater accuracy; the Kelly and Stride murder-sites, in particular, will almost assuredly increase the effect of that 'stranglehold', and thereby enhance the prevalence of each of the two distinct profile 'peaks'.

Here's the profile updated with the coordinates you gave me:



Click on the image for the full-size version.

I did want to make a small clarification regarding so-called peaks. Some profiles, like this one, include more than one peak, which I think we're defining as a distinct area with a higher probability scores separated from other high probability areas with lower probability areas. Granted, a rise in probability could be considered a "hill" if it is relatively lower than another peak or other peaks.

As far as I know there is no objective definition in the field of what constitute a peak. Granted, we could create our own. For instance, we may define a peak as any rise in probability whose highest point is within one standard deviation of the highest point of probability for the profile. But I'm not sure there's much practical use in such a definition since it is recommended that investigators use the profile to search the area starting with the highest point of probability and moving on to progressively less points of probability.

So we would start with the two highest peaks as identified by Septic and others. But if we faithfully applied the profile we would eventually search that third area Septic hesitates to call a peak well before we searched a great deal of the map. So I think it's valid to talk about that third highest area, whether you choose to refer to it as a peak or a hill. Jack may just not fit the model as much as we hope. On the other hand, Septic is right in saying that we should focus more of our attention on the two other peaks given this profile.

Regarding the apex icon:

Geographic profiling is not an "x marks the spot" tool no matter how badly we may want it to be. That's why we talk of search areas. We are only modeling a few variables, and offenders follow the psychology modeled by the system to varying degrees. Hence a blended heat map or a contour map is used instead of an X or a single top profile region. With that said, it can sometimes be useful to see where the highest point of probability occurs, even if its just to better see the shape of the profile or for theoretical discussions such as these in this thread. So my system can display the apex, or highest point of probability, of the profile. The apex icon is the red, white, and black cross image.

[The Good Michael]

Wesley,

If I'm not mistaken, the apex according to the profile, is very, very near where the apron was left. If so, that makes a lot of sense as being the area where the killer lived and also where he may have read the grafitti, if not written it himself.

Cheers,

Mike

[Chadwick]

What can you tell me about the Liverpool Street Station? What kind of travelers used that station?

I ask because I always tell investigators to pay close attention in the profile has primary or secondary peak on a transportation hub because it can indicate a the location a commuter uses as his anchor point much like a marauder uses his home as his anchor point.

I came across a solved series once that was committed by a commuter. The interesting thing was that the top profile region lay directly over a major highway exit, which could have been the entry point into the neighborhoods where he perpetrated his shootings (though I don't know this for a fact as I have not talked to him).

I was looking through an old thread called East End Photographs and Drawings (an extensive thread in which one is likely to be lost for hours) and happened upon a contemporary photo of the entrance to that station. It claimed to connect to St. James Park. That seems to open up a larger field, if you pardon the pun. I think your idea is extremely interesting, because it does expand the horizon of "who" could have had been our murderer.

If, for instance, he did frequent Whitechapel, because it gave him more annonimity in regards the easy prostitutes, using the tube would be the ideal method to put him there and transport him away.

It is interesting to note that most of the murders took place on weekends. It would make sense that our hunter, our killer, would make this his weekend project.

[Chester Copperpot]

Very interesting theory.

Coming from the architectural field, what strikes me is the borders and boundaires. We tend to sub-divide the complexity of a city into smaller parts. We categorize parts of the city to be confined within small and easily understandable boundaires. One help is major thouroughfares, and what's on either side.

Looking at those maps, it's seems that JtR is roaming the streets, looking for prey. Some areas are safe, some areas are free for all. No matter why, he seems to hold himself on the right (or wrong) side of the way, all the time.

Some thouroughfares are used as boundaires, safe on one side, prey on the other. Some thoroughfares are hunting ground altogether.

There are two rectangles of safe areas, completely surrounded by major thoroughfares.

South of Aldgate High Street, there's rectangle 1 between Leman Street, Great Prescott Street, and Minories. North of Commercial Road, there's rectangle 2 between Church Lane, Osborn Street, Brick Lane, Cheshire Street, Bakers Row, and New Road. Those two rectangles are completely safe. It's like JtR is walking a beat, he completely surrounds those two ares. Incorporate Middlesex Street and Wentworth Street, and it becomes one large and irregular area altogether.

Complementing that beat, is a safe "field" from Aldgate High Street, Houndsditch, up Bishopsgate and Liverpool Street Station, Norton Folgate, meeting Cheshire Street on the north side.

And on the outskirt of all those safe areas are major railways and underground stations. On the inside is the hunting ground, which is also nothing but major thoroughfares. Especially the crossing of Commercial Street and Whitechapel High Street/Road. All the canonical five victims walked those roads a short time before their deaths, all were found in small alleys or squares right next to the major flow.

So, it seems that JtR had several and different anchor points. Whether he lived in the area or came there from somehwere else to hunt is not important, what is important is that he regarded some areas completely safe, and walked from there into several different hunting grounds. But he could actually "anchor" the area from different points every time. Which could explain the irregularity of the area and the fact that no one can understand the pattern of his line of thought.

I find it quite remarkable how well those thoroughfares makes boundaries and borders in the area, the safe spots and the killing ground is completely surrounded, actually quite like he was walking a beat.

[Chester Copperpot]

Is it possible to make an animation of the geographical profiling? what I'm interested in is the dynamics of flow. I'd like to see how the chart differs over time, beginning with the first murder, making overlays over time.

like this:

C1+(C1+C2)+(C1+C2+C3) and so on.

It would be really interesting to see how the chart changes during the fall of 1888, and what it could possibly tell us.

[Chester Copperpot]

We can also see this geographical experiment from a strictly graphical point of view. What is it that we see? We see a slightly donutshaped ring, with a hole in the middle, and an inside and an outside.

The only thing inside is the hunting ground around Commercial Street, the killings of Tabrams, Chapman and Kelly. The donutshaped ring is the safe area, and on the outside is a different set of hunting grounds, the killings of Nichols, Stride and Eddowes.

One could argue that it is therefore only two different hunting grounds. That of Commercial Street and that of Whitechapel High Street. Nichols and Eddowes was found near either end of Whitechapel High Street, Stride was most certainly approached there as well, though they "forked" south on to Commercial Road before turning down into Berner Street.

So, it seems that JtR either walked up and down Commercial Street, looking for prey, or up and down Whitechapel High Street.

What would happen if one made two different charts, according to that line of thought? One chart with Tabram, Chapman and Kelly. The other one with Nichols, Stride and Eddowes. Would the anchor points differ?