Geographic Profile

[wesleyenglish]

I am by no means a ripperologist. But as we all know: all roads lead back to Jack the Ripper if you study serial killers. And I study serial killers.

More specifically, I am a geographic profiling researcher. One of my goals is to make it easy for law enforcement to use geographic profiling in their investigations. So I created a new geographic profiling software system aimed at that goal and established its accuracy as a part of my MA. in forensic psychology. I also train law enforcement in the practice and work the occasional case.

The other day I came up with the idea of creating geographic profiles of infamous series to serve as educational case studies designed to communicate important concepts to investigators who are learning to use geographic profiling in their cases. Of course, Jack the Ripper is the first series I thought of.

I consider this site the foremost authority on the subject. I've also seen a few types of geographic profiles floating around the forum. So while the case notes are written mostly for investigators, I thought some of you might find them interesting. If not, perhaps some of you would find the geographic profile itself, as analyzed by my system, interesting or helpful in some way.

Disclaimer: As I mentioned before, I am not nearly as knowledgeable about the case as all of you, so please feel free to correct any inaccuracies in my case notes.

A couple of notes about the geographic profile:

• I used the five canonical victims in the profile. If there is enough interest, I would be more than happy to run some alternate scenarios and post them here.
• The probability map is overlaid a modern street map. However, I can, with a little effort, replace the modern map with a street map from the period.
• I displayed the probability map as a blended heat map. I can easily post the profile with the probability map displayed as a ten-band contour map for more discrete boundaries. Just ask for it.
• The profile does not include any suspects. I would be more than happy to add suspects (provided you can give me the decimal degree coordinates of their home and/or other significant and frequent places of activity) and report on the search cost (a way to rank the likelihood of the suspect being the offender according to the profile).

I am passionate about geographic profiling, so feel free to ask questions or share your thoughts. (If you want a quick introduction to geographic profiling, check out this article.) I would also love to hear from any other geographic profilers / researchers out there.

The Profile



View the geographic profile at its full size and read the case notes.

[corey123]

Hello,

I would count myself as part of the "geographical profilers" out there. I am bigger on the psychological aspects more than that though.

Welcome to the boards and glad to see another out there.

Yours truly

[Phil Carter]

Hello Wesley,

Welcome to the boards. Although not too knowledgeable about geographical profiling, I read with interest your article.
One thing that I would be interested to hear about, is the smaller, secondary area on your map, centered around Liverpool Street Station.
The primary area as shown in the red hot area, is understandable, as it is central to all 5 murders... but I admit to wondering a little as to the secondary area.
The fact that Eddowes and Kelly, C4 and C5 are the nearest victims, has, I presume, an influence, as has Newark St between C1 and C3?

I welcome your comments and observations re Liverpool Street St. Most interesting. Thank you for your presentation.

best wishes

Phil

[wesleyenglish]

Corey: I am also fascinated with the psychological motivations for sexual sadistic serial killings, although my specialty lies with the spatial psychology of serial offender. When I prepare a geographic profile, I don't just limit myself to the GP literature, but also scour the psychology and criminology literature on the particular type of series for any empirical observations about criminal behavior that can aid the profile. You never know when it can help. While working up a geoprofile the other day for a sexual assault series, I discovered a nice little gem in the psych literature that explained a strange change in MO for a couple of the incidents in the middle of the series. It also suggested the offender was a marauder, which is also a good indication to get when using a geographic profile in an investigation. So, yeah, I'm with you, the psychological aspect of serial offending is fascinating.

Phil: Great observation.

This particular geographic profile models the observation that killers commit their murders close to home but not too close. As you read, this is based on the idea that the killer feels more comfortable offending in an area he is familiar with. He knows the best times and places to commit crime without being seen or interrupted, and he knows the best routes to escape quickly if needed. But he may avoid killing too close to his home to avoid being recognized by a neighbor or drawing the investigation to his area leading to canvassing, etc.

Since people tend to know the areas around their homes best, and criminals are no different, they tend to commit crimes around their homes. Most often, they offend on different sides of their homes, possibly to avoid the increased vigilance in the area of their last crime. This leads to a pattern of scenes that essentially encircle their homes. This accounts for the top profile regions we see in the center of the crime scenes.

However, that's not the only option. Instead of switching sides, an offender could just go a little further (or a little closer) in the same direction as his last crime. And it fits the psychology if he still knows that area well. In this case, the distances involved are so small that it is not unreasonable to imagine that if he knew the area around C2, C4 and C5, he probably knew the areas around the C1 and C3. So that secondary region is predicting he used this sort of pattern.

I'm not sure that really answers your question. But when you consider the distribution of the scenes--especially noting that C2, C4 and C5 are the closest points--in terms of the competing forces of wanting to kill close to home by not too close, you get the possibility he lived on the edge of the distribution near those three points. Although, the profile doesn't predict a very high probability.

However, all of this is a moot point if he commuted to Whitechapel because it featured better hunting grounds than the area around his home...

[wesleyenglish]

I welcome your comments and observations re Liverpool Street St. Most interesting.

What can you tell me about the Liverpool Street Station? What kind of travelers used that station?

I ask because I always tell investigators to pay close attention in the profile has primary or secondary peak on a transportation hub because it can indicate a the location a commuter uses as his anchor point much like a marauder uses his home as his anchor point.

I came across a solved series once that was committed by a commuter. The interesting thing was that the top profile region lay directly over a major highway exit, which could have been the entry point into the neighborhoods where he perpetrated his shootings (though I don't know this for a fact as I have not talked to him).

[corey123]

HI Welsey,


Glad to meet another interested in Jack the Rippers psychological state. May I add that he wasn't a sexual sadists. No, not a sexual sadist, a Necro-sadist.

Yours truly

[Phil Carter]

What can you tell me about the Liverpool Street Station? What kind of travelers used that station?

Hello Wesley,


Thank you for your kind words.
I will attempt to try to answer your questions. I am far from an expert on Railway Stations, so if there is anyone who knows more, or wishes to correct me, feel free to do so!

History.

The original station was called Bishopsgate.
The station was built on the site of the original Bethlem Royal Hospital, and was opened on 2 February 1874 by the Great Eastern Railway and was fully operational from 1 November 1875. From this date the original terminal, Bishopsgate, closed to passengers. It reopened as a goods station in 1881 but was destroyed by fire on 5 December 1964.

The new station was designed by the Eastern's chief engineer, Edward Wilson and was built by John Mowlem & Co. on a site which had been occupied by Bethlem Royal Hospital from the 13th Century to the 17th Century. The station was apparently named after the street on which it stands, which, itself was named in honour of Prime Minister Lord Liverpool, having been built as part of an extension of the City of London towards the end of his term in office.

The construction of the station was due to the desire of the company to gain a terminal closer to the city than the one opened by the predecessor Eastern Counties Railway, at Shoreditch, that had opened on 1 July 1840. This station was renamed "Bishopsgate" in 1846. The construction proved extremely expensive due to the cost of acquiring property and many people were displaced due to the large scale demolitions. There are considerable gradients leading out of the station. Lord Salisbury, who was chairman of the Great Eastern in 1870, said that the Liverpool Street extension was "one of the greatest mistakes ever committed in connection with a railway." Salisbury was PM in 1888.

Liverpool Street Tube Station has sub-surface platforms (opened by the Metropolitan Railway as "Bishopsgate" on 12 July 1875) on the Circle, Metropolitan and Hammersmith & City lines. The Metropolitan had served main-line platforms of the GER station from 1 February 1875, but this through link had only a short life. The station was renamed Liverpool Street from 1 November 1909. A disused west-facing bay platform once used by terminating Metropolitan and occasional District Line trains running via Edgware Road is still visible.

This may answer your second question as well, for if I understand it correctly, the general public did not use the station from 1881 until 1909. I may have misunderstood this however.

Relating that to your answer about a secondary area, around the station, it would appear that as an exit point, late at night, the killer would not have used this particular venue. Again, if I have understood the history correctly.

I hope this is of help.

best wishes

Phil

[m_w_r]

... if I understand it correctly, the general public did not use the station from 1881 until 1909. I may have misunderstood this however.

Relating that to your answer about a secondary area, around the station, it would appear that as an exit point, late at night, the killer would not have used this particular venue. Again, if I have understood the history correctly.

Phil,

You haven't, which is all the more curious since you got the information you posted from Wikipedia, and you could have followed the embedded links within that site to check your understanding. Back to the drawing board.

Respectfully.

Mark

[Phil Carter]

Mark,

Respectfully.
Thank you for your comments, as I said, I was only trying to help a little, and answer the question I was asked. I also invited others to help and correct me, and bow to your greater knowledge on the subject. I look forward to your corrections and additions.

best wishes

Phil

[wesleyenglish]

Here's a question for any of you out there who lean towards a particular theory or have narrowed it down to a few likely candidates:

How does this geographic profile, or my comments on it, fit with your theory? Does it offer some support for your Jack (or Jill)? Or, according to your theory, is it way off?

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[corey123]

Wesley,

If you could private message me I can answer that question.

Yours truly

[DVV]

Hi Wesleyenglish,

Septic Blue has worked on that.
Can't remember where...sorry.
But that was quite interesting.

Amitiés,
David

[corey123]

Wesley,

I replied by email.

Yours truly

[FrankO]

• I used the five canonical victims in the profile. If there is enough interest, I would be more than happy to run some alternate scenarios and post them here.

Interesting stuff, Wesley! I, for one, would be interested in seeing a blended heat map based on C1, C2, C4 & C5. So I hope there are more out there.

All the best,
Frank

[The Good Michael]

Here's what Septic (Colin) has done:

http://forum.casebook.org/showthread.php?t=2904

As you can see, his results are quite similar and Tabram is included as well, but maybe because she happens to be smack in the center of all the mayhem.

Cheers,

Mike