Bucks Row Project

[Elamarna]

QUOTE=Elamarna;412093

Hi Steve,

just a simple question about something you write here:



Doesn´t one or both of the carmen state in some article(s) that they were running late for work? Maybe I´m wrong.

But if they did, it would be problematic for the assumptions here.

Cheers, Pierre

Good question.

While Lechmere said he left later than normal, Paul did say he was running late.

However it seems clear from the distances involved and the possible speeds from over 3mph up, that both could have arrived at work by if not before their start time of 4am.

It could be that although due to start at 4 either man would normally arrive ahead of their respective start time and thus if leaving later than normal it would be right to say they were running late.

If one were to assume that Paul ment he was actually late for work then his start time must have been before 4am.

It is a point however to consider and I will look at it in detail later.
Thank you for raising the issue.


Steve

[Elamarna]

points of clarification

Several issues have been raised over the last week, both on this thread, other threads and by PM.
I have considered how to respond and here goes.

Some have asked why I have used a slow speed like 3mph, however 3.1 is the average walking speed given by many websites and institutions.3 mph is there not slow.

2mph is relatively slow and I have not used it in the tables at all; some have asked why?

Two reasons: space on the tables and actually more importantly if we used 2mph the timings would be much longer and would be in some cases just unrealistic given the witness statements.


Steve

[Joshua Rogan]

While Lechmere said he left later than normal, Paul did say he was running late.

However it seems clear from the distances involved and the possible speeds from over 3mph up, that both could have arrived at work by if not before their start time of 4am.

It could be that although due to start at 4 either man would normally arrive ahead of their respective start time and thus if leaving later than normal it would be right to say they were running late.

If one were to assume that Paul ment he was actually late for work then his start time must have been before 4am.

It is a point however to consider and I will look at it in detail later.
Thank you for raising the issue.


Steve

Hi Steve,
Cross does say that the other man (Paul) told him "he was behind time. I was behind time myself."
The thing that puzzles me, though, is that after walking together from Buck's Row to Corbet's Court (where Paul apparently worked) Cross still had about the same distance (and thus time) to go before he got to his work. So either Paul wasn't as late as he was letting on, or Cross was even more behind than he thought. Or he usually got to work with time to spare. Or they started work at slightly different times. Or Paul actually walked a lot faster than Cross, who only saw him turn into the court in the distance (which would explain their apparent lack of conversation). Or some other explanation.
Anyway, one more thing to think about.

[Elamarna]

Hi Steve,
Cross does say that the other man (Paul) told him "he was behind time. I was behind time myself."
The thing that puzzles me, though, is that after walking together from Buck's Row to Corbet's Court (where Paul apparently worked) Cross still had about the same distance (and thus time) to go before he got to his work. So either Paul wasn't as late as he was letting on, or Cross was even more behind than he thought. Or he usually got to work with time to spare. Or they started work at slightly different times. Or Paul actually walked a lot faster than Cross, who only saw him turn into the court in the distance (which would explain their apparent lack of conversation). Or some other explanation.
Anyway, one more thing to think about.

Yes Joshua all possabilties. Pierre raised the very same point.

My view at present is that they were both behind their normal times for arriving at work but not necessarily starting. This seems to stand up for Lechmere in particular.

He said he normally left home at 3.20 and started at 4.
If he arrived at his work at his actual start time that suggests a very leisurely pace. So normally arriving early seems a very reasonable idea.

Paul is more of a mystery, I don't think we have an exact start time for him. But If it was 4am he could make it even leaving at the time he claimed by walking at just over average pace.

However as you say there are other equally good possabilties. It would be very interesting to know on that morning how late each was, if at all.

Steve

[Pierre]

Yes Joshua all possabilties. Pierre raised the very same point.

My view at present is that they were both behind their normal times for arriving at work but not necessarily starting. This seems to stand up for Lechmere in particular.

He said he normally left home at 3.20 and started at 4.
If he arrived at his work at his actual start time that suggests a very leisurely pace. So normally arriving early seems a very reasonable idea.

Paul is more of a mystery, I don't think we have an exact start time for him. But If it was 4am he could make it even leaving at the time he claimed by walking at just over average pace.

However as you say there are other equally good possabilties. It would be very interesting to know on that morning how late each was, if at all.

Steve

Dear Steve,

as soon as anyone starts discussing the Nichols murder and time it becomes Minutiae in Buck´s Row.

This is what Fisherman has to do all the time. And I think he is hiding behind it, since it enables him to discuss Lechmere forever without giving any evidence for a connection between Lechmere and the other murders.

The most significant word adherent to this type of practise is "IF".

As you can see, you are now part of this game and one of those who are depending on this word.

I am sorry but I do think that the big problem with reliability when trying to determine minutes - and even seconds sometime - with the help of sparse and inexact sources from the past is hopeless.

I prefer to follow the witness statements and the tendencies if there are any.

The first source with Paul for example has a strong tendency.

Best wishes, Pierre

[Elamarna]

Dear Steve,

as soon as anyone starts discussing the Nichols murder and time it becomes Minutiae in Buck´s Row.

This is what Fisherman has to do all the time. And I think he is hiding behind it, since it enables him to discuss Lechmere forever without giving any evidence for a connection between Lechmere and the other murders.

The most significant word adherent to this type of practise is "IF".

As you can see, you are now part of this game and one of those who are depending on this word.

I am sorry but I do think that the big problem with reliability when trying to determine minutes - and even seconds sometime - with the help of sparse and inexact sources from the past is hopeless.

I prefer to follow the witness statements and the tendencies if there are any.

The first source with Paul for example has a strong tendency.

Best wishes, Pierre

Yes Pierre I agree. In the end we are left with the sources and the time charts incoperate those source statements.

However if we do not have a framework to refer the sources to we move nowhere in some arguments. Those being relative times of arrival at the scene by various police officers.
This of course is the whole basis for the blood argument. By setting out the possible timings for those incidents we allow a fuller discussion on the issue at a later point.

Unfortunately the form of the forum does not allow me to lay out the work in one go. The details would get lost in the ensuing debate. As I said on another thread yesterday if this were a book the first section would be the last, an appendix.

The other reason for posting the tables first was to see if there were any major disagreements over distances and possible walking speeds.

Let me assure you the remainder of the work is source based.



Steve

[Pierre]

Yes Pierre I agree. In the end we are left with the sources and the time charts incoperate those source statements.

However if we do not have a framework to refer the sources to we move nowhere in some arguments. Those being relative times of arrival at the scene by various police officers.
This of course is the whole basis for the blood argument. By setting out the possible timings for those incidents we allow a fuller discussion on the issue at a later point.

Unfortunately the form of the forum does not allow me to lay out the work in one go. The details would get lost in the ensuing debate. As I said on another thread yesterday if this were a book the first section would be the last, an appendix.

The other reason for posting the tables first was to see if there were any major disagreements over distances and possible walking speeds.

Let me assure you the remainder of the work is source based.

Steve

Good points. It will be interesting to see how you interpret the sources.

Cheer, Pierre

[Pierre]

[QUOTE=Elamarna;413148]

The other reason for posting the tables first was to see if there were any major disagreements over distances and possible walking speeds.

Hi Steve,

For those who did not follow your thinking and for those who would appreciate an answer to this question:

Were there any major disagreements over distances and/or possible walking speed?

Cheers, Pierre

[Elamarna]

[QUOTE=Pierre;413866]

Hi Steve,

For those who did not follow your thinking and for those who would appreciate an answer to this question:

Were there any major disagreements over distances and/or possible walking speed?

Cheers, Pierre

So far none on the distances at all. However I stated at the start they were not absolutes and could be a few feet out, however that would only make a difference of a few seconds no matter what speed walked.

There as been some discussion over the speeds I have suggested as preferred, but that was expected and was the reason for giving a selection in each table.
The main point raised as been I may have suggested that Thain would not have run to Llewellyn but would have used a faster than normal walking speed, again various options are in the tables.
Conversely it has also been suggested that maybe I have Mizen coming back too fast with the ambulance, however I do include options again and the truth is that even the faster time I suggest in the commentary takes along time, slower times make a longer gap before until he arrives back in Bucks Row.

In addition it has been suggested that the police may have walked slower than I suggest in the commentary, again other times are quoted and slower time in the case of Neil for instance just makes him arrive on scene that much later.

The point of the exercise was to see what was possible, could for instance Neil have arrived less than two minutes after Paul and Lechmere left the scene; not what was the latest time he could have arrived.


The rest of the project is going well, I am writing up part two at present, that is witness and press statements and reports. A source analysis.

The final conclusions will be some time after that, maybe 2 months off.


Steve

[Pierre]

[QUOTE=Elamarna;413884]

So far none on the distances at all. However I stated at the start they were not absolutes and could be a few feet out, however that would only make a difference of a few seconds no matter what speed walked.

There as been some discussion over the speeds I have suggested as preferred, but that was expected and was the reason for giving a selection in each table.
The main point raised as been I may have suggested that Thain would not have run to Llewellyn but would have used a faster than normal walking speed, again various options are in the tables.
Conversely it has also been suggested that maybe I have Mizen coming back too fast with the ambulance, however I do include options again and the truth is that even the faster time I suggest in the commentary takes along time, slower times make a longer gap before until he arrives back in Bucks Row.

In addition it has been suggested that the police may have walked slower than I suggest in the commentary, again other times are quoted and slower time in the case of Neil for instance just makes him arrive on scene that much later.

The point of the exercise was to see what was possible, could for instance Neil have arrived less than two minutes after Paul and Lechmere left the scene; not what was the latest time he could have arrived.


The rest of the project is going well, I am writing up part two at present, that is witness and press statements and reports. A source analysis.

The final conclusions will be some time after that, maybe 2 months off.

Steve

Thanks for the summing up, Steve. And good luck with your part two now.

Best wishes, Pierre

[Elamarna]

correction

just been pointed out to me a mistake in Bucks Row Project part 1 post 6

its only a typo, the final column heading reads 4mph/88ypm.

should of course read 4mph/117ypm

the calculation are correct.

sorry for that, but this was why i posted these to pick up the mistakes.

Steve

[Elamarna]

Just an update.

Part two of The Bucks Rowpproject will be posted in the Witnesses section as that is what it is about.

The thread will probably be up directly after the London Conference, which is next weekend.


Steve

[Pierre]

Just an update.

Part two of The Bucks Rowpproject will be posted in the Witnesses section as that is what it is about.

The thread will probably be up directly after the London Conference, which is next weekend.

Steve

Good work, Steve.

Pierre

[Elamarna]

Another correction

Hi all

Just seen a typo in post #14, the very first table.

Column 6 headed 5mph/146yds. Row 2
This reads 3min 50sec, it should read 5min 50sec.

Sorry I did not pick up on it before.


Steve

[Herlock Sholmes]

Just an update.

Part two of The Bucks Rowpproject will be posted in the Witnesses section as that is what it is about.

The thread will probably be up directly after the London Conference, which is next weekend.


Steve

Look forward to reading it Steve.

Hope you haven't used any long words though

Regards

Herlock