Bucks Row Project

[Elamarna]

Bucks Row Project part 1 post 4

Let us now look at Robert Paul in more detail

He lived at 30 Foster street, in looking at how likely to miss Lechmere he was, we need to see how far behind he may have been at varying speeds.



From the above

We can see that contrary to the often expressed idea that Paul should have seen Lechmere, if Lechmere was only a few yards in front of him, either in Bath Street or Brady Street this is not the case.
It is clear that Lechmere could have been in Bath Street, having past the junction with Foster Street as Paul left home, and thus unseen.
Alternatively he could have been in Brady Street or entering Bucks Row as as Paul walked down Foster Street and entered Bath Street himself.

The Documentary gave the very strong impression that there was no way that this could have been the case, that is now debunked.

We are not sure of the lighting conditions in Bucks Row, and so cannot be sure at what distance Lechmere would have become visible to Paul.
This of course does not look at the issue of Paul’s perception and if he was actually actively looking as he walked down Bucks Row.

If one takes Lechmere’s description of events at face value, he noticed the body and at first was not sure what it was and so took another look and slowed down walking and stopped.
At that point he heard footsteps behind him, turned and saw Paul at a distance which he estimated at 40 yards. This of course is only an estimation by Lechmere and we need too accept that, however this suggests that Paul was about 20-30 seconds behind according to Lechmere, Paul not providing a distance when he first saw Lechmere, neither does he at any point claim that Lechmere is standing over or crouching by the body, this we will look at in more detail in part 3.
We may also add on maybe as much as 10 seconds for the period when Lechmere first saw the body according to him, and slowed,looked and apparently stopped walking

We may therefore reasonably place Lechmere up to 30-40 seconds in front of Paul.


From the above table this would place Lechmere in Bath Street heading towards the junction with Brady Street, when Paul leaves home. When Paul reaches Bath Street himself, Lechmere would be out of sight having just entered Brady Street.

This seems reasonable and a viable scenario.


Further information is in the table below.



We can further see that Paul could easily have reached his work place if he had been in Bucks Row at the time he claimed – 3.45am, without any need to hurry, this helps to strengthen the case for a walking speed of 3.5mph.

[Elamarna]

Bucks Row Project part 1 post 5

We can now look at the time it may have taken Lechmere and Paul once they left the body to reach not only Mizen, but several other points as well, using the 3 basic speeds and my assumed speed.



We can now see that once Paul and Lechmere left Nichols, it would have taken at the very fastest over two minutes to reach Mizen, however that is walking at a very brisk pace which is not consistent with the walking speeds already discussed.

Again we can see that at the rate of 3.5mph this distance can be covered in around 3 minutes.


We must also now look at how long the walk back to Bucks Row may have taken PC Mizen.

Standard Police night beat rate was 3 miles per hour, however given that he was told he was required in Bucks Row, and we are not at this point in the project looking at exactly what he may have been told, only that he left his beat because of an incident.

At standard rate it would take him over 3 and a half minutes, however being that he was reacting to an incident, but did not necessarily see it as an emergency, it is fair to assume that he went faster than this, for the present I will assume, and that he walked back to Bucks Row at the same speed as Paul and Lechmere.

Also of some importance is the position of Paul and Lechmere in relation to PC Neil.

There are two places on Bucks Row where they could have passed him, without being seen, either as they passed the bottom of Thomas Street or as they passed the bottom of Queen Ann Street

Therefore we should note the likely time for Paul and Lechmere to reach these points.

We can now look at possible timings and indeed placement for PC Neil

[Elamarna]

Bucks Row Project part 1 post 6

PC Neil’s beat, based on map in thread “PC Neils route” post #43

We can see that his route was up and down streets and in and out of alleys and courts
He did not hear of see Paul or Lechmere, and that may help in positioning him at the time they passed.

It seems probable that if he was on the portion of his beat going South down Thomas Street he would have seen or heard them, he did not. Therefore he is either in the section of his beat before of after this.
I have therefore excluded his route down Thomas Street south from the tables.




We should I feel assume that he is walking at an average speed of 3mph, as per regulation, but we of course must realise that this may vary over short sections of the beat.

It should be noted however that some, from time to time have suggested that the daytime pace was used even at night, that is 2.5 miles per hour, I therefore for completeness have included a data set for this speed as well above.

Lets start at the point where he was the shortest distance from Bucks Row but unable to see it.

That would be just about half way up the right hand side of Queen Ann Street, the road as a bend and the view to Bucks Row is clearly obstructed.

From the previous table, we can see using the rate of 3.5mph that Lechmere and Paul arrive at the bottom of Queen Ann Street and pass it approx 1 minute after leaving the body of Nichols.
As they pass, the bend would prevent them from seeing Neil if he is on the part of his beat from the top of said street to the middle of the street.

We can see from the above table that at 3mph, if Neil is at the suggest point in Queen Ann Street, he is approximately 2 minutes from the body of Nichols and approx 45 seconds from the junction with Bucks Row, by the time he reaches that junction the carmen will have travelled another 77+ yards and be well past the junction with Thomas Street, and possible out of sight (alas not knowing the level of lighting we cannot be sure).It may with some justification be argued that if Neil could later see Mizen, he should have seen Paul and Lechmere, there are several explanations, such as he did not look towards Bakers Row as he entered Bucks row, or perhaps he saw PC Mizen’s lamp, both are possible, however the easier explanation is that he was slightly further towards the northern end of Queen Ann Street when Lechmere and Paul passed, maybe 20-25 seconds further away than suggested.

Of course this is only one possibility and there are others.

One point which struck me when doing this was that after passing Queen Ann Street it will take the carmen approximately another 2 minutes to reach PC Mizen. And by a strange coincidence it will take Neil the same time to reach the body of Nichols.

Remember that Neil said that he found the body at 3.45, and Mizen claimed he meet the two carmen at the same time.

We now see this happening in this case, we cannot be sure of the absolute time, however the two policemen are agreeing on relative times in this scenario.

[Elamarna]

Bucks Row Project part 1 post 7

We can now take a look at Pc Thain, he was seen passing the junction with Brady Street/Bucks Row by PC Neil, who signalled to him by means of his lamp.
Thain moved down Bucks Row and was sent by Neil to get a doctor.
It has been suggested that as Neil said “run at once to Dr Llewellyn” this should not be taken as literally meaning run. The term is often used to mean to go quickly such as “I am just running to the shops” or just “running to the post box”, such usage is common, to argue otherwise demonstrates a literal interpretation of the language and not an everyday one.
It has also been suggested that Thain had been spending time at the local Slaughter House in Winthrop street, this is based on the issue of his collecting his cape and that the slaughter men said he had informed them of the murder. He denied this course of events.
However if it did happen, and there is no obvious reason for his cape to be at the slaughter house, such a collection and passing of information could probably only have happened on Thain’s way to Dr Llewellyn.

For this reason I have included both possibilities in the table below.



One issue is how fast would Thain have reached Neil, I would suggest he would see the signal as indicating urgent help required and would therefore have hurried the 124yards to Neil.
The time of 5mph, which I rarely feel is reasonable does in this situation seem so. It is a short distance, and 50 seconds sounds reasonable.

However as commented on above, it was clear to both Neil and Thain that tNichols was dead, and so while urgent there was no need to hurry at the same pace Thain had just used, when going for Llewellyn .
Therefore I would suggest that 4mph is the most reasonable pace, but 5mph cannot be completely ignored.

There is another issue which we can have no idea of, that is how long it took, Doctor Llewellyn, once he was woken by Thain, to get dressed and leave his home, it must surely have taken several minutes and I shall apply 2, 3, 4 and 5 minutes to my timings.

We can now suggest a time table:


Time from signal until arriving at Neil 50 seconds
Time to get to Dr Llewellyn (no detour) at 4mph 2min 7seconds
time to return with Dr Llewellyn at 4mph 2min 7 seconds

To this we can add the time mentioned above for Llewellyn to get himself ready

We therefore have times of:

5mins 4 seconds + 2 minutes = 7minutes.
5mins 4 seconds + 3 minutes = 8 minutes.
5mins 4 seconds + 4 minutes = 9 minutes
5mins 4 seconds + 5 minutes = 10 minutes.

Of course we have allowed for no time for the exchange between Neil and Thain, this however would not be long certainly no more than 30 seconds, probably less.


Therefore Llewellyn arrives at the site 7-10 minutes after Neil signals to Thain. There is of course no way of knowing for sure just how long after discovering the body Neil sees Thain, but less than 1 minutes seems possible.

(If Thain is correct about his time of 3.45 which is open to question, but does fit that given by Neil, which in turn seems to fit with Mizen. We have Llewellyn arriving at between 7 and 10 minutes later, that would be 3.52 – 3.55 +) .

The second alternative is to allow for the suggested detour, this at 4mph gives us a time of :

Time from signal until arriving at Neil 50 seconds
Time to get to Dr Llewellyn ( detour) at 4mph 3min 37seconds
time to return with Dr Llewellyn at 4mph 2min 7 seconds

Total 6 minutes 34 seconds. Apply the same times for Llewellyn we arrive at:

6 minutes 34 seconds + 2 minutes = 8 minutes 34 seconds.
6 minutes 34 seconds + 3 minutes = 9 minutes 34 seconds
6 minutes 34 seconds + 4 minutes = 10 minutes 34 seconds
6 minutes 34 seconds + 5 minutes = 11 minutes 34 seconds


However if the detour took place we must allow for an exchange between Thain and the slaughter men, when combined with a possible exchange with Neil as well, we should allow a minimum of 1 minute and add this to the time.
This gives an arrival time for Llewellyn up to 12 and a half minutes after Thain sees Neil

We are very close to Llewellyn stated time of 4am.

If of course Thain walked to Llewellyn at less than 4mph, the time of arrival of Llewellyn would be later.
The reverse of course applies if Thain walked at 5mph; while possible, I feel this is unlikely, and even more so that Llewellyn would have returned at this rate, being older and having just woken.

[Elamarna]

Bucks Row Project part 1 post 8

When PC Mizen arrived at Bucks Row he was asked to go and get an ambulance, Inspector Abberline tell us this was from Bethnal Green Police station.

Once again using the maps quoted earlier it is possible to look at this and decided on the two most direct routes.



* route no longer exists but speed for route 1 used
** route walked by David Barrat.

We must take into account that while Mizen may not have pushed the ambulance himself, it cannot be discounted and certainly he returned with it. This was heavy and it is likely it would not take as short a time on the return journey as that going to get it.
We must also allow for some interaction at the station, given that others returned with him, and the time to actually get the ambulance which may only have been a few seconds, but could conceivable be longer.

David Barrat who posts as David Orsam has walked the first of the two routes and did this in exactly 7mins which suggests he is walking at 5mph, the route has not changed since 1888.

So assuming that Mizen could do this in the same time we have a return time of :

7 minutes trip to station.
7 minutes trip back.
Interaction 2 minutes we have a return time of 16minutes

However it is more likely that the trip would take longer and 4 miles an hour is probably the best that could be achieved over the distance, possible much slower, this gives us a return time of over 19 minutes.

This will have serious implication for the next section of the project.

[Elamarna]

Bucks Row Project part 1 post 9

Now we reach a crucial part of this work, and indeed one of the reasons I began this project in the first place.
Some Pro-Lechmere researchers have produced an hypothesis which is often referred to as “the blood evidence” but would more accurately be called the “bleeding time evidence”.
The theory is based on a sound medical basis, supported by a medical expert Jason Payne-James, that blood from cuts will stop being under pressure or free flowing after a relatively short period of time. This is not the place to discuss that in detail as I will be raising it in part three of The Bucks Row Project.
Suffice to say the theory says that blood will not be seen to be free flowing after a few minutes, this time is not exact, but 3-7 is a good range for this.
It has been proposed that both PC’s Neil and Mizen reported free flowing blood which allows Lechmere to be placed at the murder scene at the time the killer wound is inflicted, this is hotly disputed and again it shall be addressed in the second part of the work.
Here I shall limit myself to looking at the likely time that Neil and Mizen arrived at Bucks Row and if their reported and disputed comments are viable given the science involved and if they support the hypothesis from that point of view.
There is some debate over which cuts came first, neck or abdomen and which killed, I shall discuss this in part 3 in detail. However whichever wounds were first they were probably the cause of death, and so we can use the start of the attack as a point for the killer cut.
let us look at PC Neil



Let me give a brief commentary on this table.

Column one gives set points

1. The time that the first cut is made before Paul is seen by Lechmere.

2. The time that is taken by Paul and Lechmere walking towards each other.

3. The verbal exchange between Paul and Lechmere and the checking of Nichols body, 1.5 minutes seems a reasonable figure.

4. The time taken to walk to the bottom of Queen Ann street by Paul and Lechmere from the murder site ( possible place they passed Neil and were unseen by him).

5. Minimum time taken by Neil if he was at mid point in Queen Ann street to reach the murder site

Column 2 assumes a short attack on Nichols, and by Lechmere who moves from the body unseen by Paul in this time. (recent debate suggests that this may be too short a time given the degree of wounds).

Column 3 assumes a longer attack on Nichols, and by Lechmere who moves from the body unseen by Paul in this time.

Column 4 assumes a short attack by not Lechmere, in which case the killer has to move unseen and unheard by Lechmere, I have allowed an additional 30 seconds for this. (recent debate suggests that this may be too short a time given the degree of wounds).

column 5 assumes a longer attack by not Lechmere, in which case the killer has to move unseen and unheard by Lechmere, I have allowed an additional 30 seconds for this.

We can see that using the shortest possible option, with Lechmere as the killer, that Neil cannot arrived less than 6 minutes 55 seconds after the killer cut, be that throat or abdomen occurs. And if one goes for a longer attack this increases to 9 minutes.

While 6 minutes 55 seconds cannot be completely ruled out in allowing Neil to see free flowing blood, it is getting to the higher end of the range that Payne-James, the expert who’s views are used as the scientific basis for the hypothesis, suggests is reasonable:

It is part of a e-mail exchange where I have asked Jason Payne-James if I could quote him, and he has given his consent. Here it is, my questions in red, his answers in blue:

Just how quickly CAN a person with the kind of damage that Nichols had bleed out, if we have nothing that hinders the bloodflow, and if the victim is flat on level ground? Can a total desanguination take place in very few minutes in such a case?

Yes

Do you know of any examples? No

Is it possible for such a person to bleed out completely and stop bleeding in three minutes? In five? In seven?I guess blood may continue to flow for up to this amount of time, but the shorter periods are more likely to be more realistic.
.

If we do hit 9 minutes, as is indeed possible, this becomes unlikely according to Payne-James.

We must also allow that if the killer was not Lechmere, and he did not see the killer, we actually have no idea how long before Lechmere arrived the attack was made.

If blood was still flowing that would help according to Payne-James, however if blood was seen flowing is a very controversial issue .

There is also some debate about what stopping bleeding means, both issues will be looked at in detail in the third part of this work.

Finally I have assumed that Neil was walking at the regulation night speed of 3mph, in a previous post I have acknowledged that some have suggest that the daytime rate of 2.5mph was used, while I have not included that in the above table it would add 24 seconds onto the times for PC Neil.

What can therefore be said about Neil and the “bleeding time “ hypothesis?

It is just possible at the bottom range of possible arrival times, that Neil may have arrived in time to see flowing blood.
However those timings, while allowing for many options, did not allow for several things, such as it has already been demonstrated in this report that the walk towards Paul by Lechmere may have taken slightly longer than 25 seconds, and the exchange and examination could have taken longer than 90 seconds.

We will need to asses Neil’s situation in detail in Part 3, looking in detail at what he claimed to see, and what effect more than one serious wound may have on the bleed time.

We can now do the same analyses for PC Mizen


On the following table the columns remain the same as in the table for PC Neil, until we arrive at walk to Mizen, this gives an estimate for the walk of Paul and Lechmere based on the figures suggested earlier in this report.

We then have a row for the exchange between Mizen and the Carmen, and his doing one final knock up, some may dispute this estimate, but it cannot in all honesty be much shorter and could be longer. At this point a running total of time is added as an additional row


We then have a series of rows allowing for different rates at which Mizen may have walked back to Bucks Row, and totals for each option. In this example I have included a speed at 2.5mph, I do not consider it even likely that he progressed at this pace but decided to include it for completeness




We end up with a range of 9 minutes 35 seconds – 14minutes 14seconds ( I would however discount this figure and used 13 minutes 31 seconds instead, as I can see no possibility of Mizen walking at 2.5 mph)

This is somewhat longer than the range that Payne-James suggested was believable above.

However this is not the end of the story; Mizen is reported as seeing flowing blood, however at least one report says this was after he returned with the ambulance.
Has we have already seen, the fastest possible time to get the ambulance would be at least 14 minutes plus some exchange at the police station. Even if we cut this exchange to a few seconds, We end up with a range of 9 minutes 35 seconds – 14minutes 14seconds ( I would however discount this figure and used 13 minutes 31 seconds instead, as I can see no possibility of Mizen walking at 2.5 mph)

This is somewhat longer than the range that Payne-James suggested was believable above.

However this is not the end of the story; Mizen is reported as seeing flowing blood, however at least one report says this was after he returned with the ambulance.
Has we have already seen, the fastest possible time to get the ambulance would be at least 14 minutes plus some exchange at the police station. Even if we cut this exchange to a few seconds,
we are left with a combined shortest time for Mizen’s report of 9minutes 35 seconds to reach Bucks Row + 14 minutes minimum to go for and return with the ambulance that gives a total minimum time from killer cut to viewing of 23 minutes 35 seconds,

It seems clear that Mizen could not see free flowing blood, the idea is completely unviable and certainly not realistic when compared to the actual hypothesis.

He may however have seen blood run, when the body was moved and wounds may have reopened to an extent, that is a different thing which we shall look at in Part 3.

There ends PART 1

[Kattrup]

Thank you for this first part.

A very thorough approach. Personally I would like a more sourcebased analysis, for instance about the claims of seeing blood flow etc. It is clear that the phrasing is far from clear.

At any rate, your work here shows how extremely difficult it is to assess timings and like details with any precision.

The main advantage of such an undertaking is therefore, in my opinion, that it shows how many assumptions must be made to reach misleading or indeed manipulative statements like "the timings really fit Lechmere" or "there's a time gap" or similar.


I hope you don't find my comment too negative - but the sheer number of assumptions that you must make in order to reach any kind of conclusion is in itself interesting, as it, as I said, shows the futility of pinpointing important and pseudoimportant details.

A few other comments: I think you do the PCs a disservice when you say they would not hurry particularly to fetch a doctor, since Nichols was already dead. Rather, they understood the importance of swift action, I believe they would have run, not walked somewhat faster then usual.

Also, wheeling a large cart along the dark and cobbled streets would surely have slowed down even a fit PC considerably. I do not think it would be unreasonable to allow for a greater delay than you have admitted.


I look forward to reading your parts two and three

[Elamarna]

Thank you for this first part.

A very thorough approach. Personally I would like a more sourcebased analysis, for instance about the claims of seeing blood flow etc. It is clear that the phrasing is far from clear.

At any rate, your work here shows how extremely difficult it is to assess timings and like details with any precision.

The main advantage of such an undertaking is therefore, in my opinion, that it shows how many assumptions must be made to reach misleading or indeed manipulative statements like "the timings really fit Lechmere" or "there's a time gap" or similar.


I hope you don't find my comment too negative - but the sheer number of assumptions that you must make in order to reach any kind of conclusion is in itself interesting, as it, as I said, shows the futility of pinpointing important and pseudoimportant details.

A few other comments: I think you do the PCs a disservice when you say they would not hurry particularly to fetch a doctor, since Nichols was already dead. Rather, they understood the importance of swift action, I believe they would have run, not walked somewhat faster then usual.

Also, wheeling a large cart along the dark and cobbled streets would surely have slowed down even a fit PC considerably. I do not think it would be unreasonable to allow for a greater delay than you have admitted.


I look forward to reading your parts two and three

Hi Kattrup

Thanks for the comments.

Firstly the source based analysis comes in part 3.

Yes it is not possible to be pricise about much of the debate, however I do think it is possible to show probably quickest times in some instances.

For instance the issue of Paul not seeing lechmere until Bucks Row; the timings clearly demonstrate that he did not have to see Lechmere until he reached Bucks Row, which is contrary to the view take by some that he must have.

On your comment about the police running for the Doctor, that obviously is a matter of opinion and I do not rule out a faster approach by Thain, however at present I see no reason to believe he ran.

If he did indeed we have no way of judging how fast, however I do include a speed of 5mph in the table, the figures are there to see and such a pace is considered by some to be jogging; maybe another data set could be added, however i am not sure how high we would set it.

To be fair I do have him walking considerable faster than standard.

I agree with you entirely about the cart; however the exercise was undertaken purely to demonstrate the fastest possible time it could have taken.
My personal view would be closer to 20 minutes than the 14 I mention.


Do you have any other comments about any of the timing issues as the plan is to take all into account before posting conclusions.

Far from being negative I consider the comments constructive and I shall take them on board; that after all is the purpose of the exercise.


Cheers


Steve

[John G]

When PC Mizen arrived at Bucks Row he was asked to go and get an ambulance, Inspector Abberline tell us this was from Bethnal Green Police station.

Once again using the maps quoted earlier it is possible to look at this and decided on the two most direct routes.


[ATTACH]17990[/ATTACH]
* route no longer exists but speed for route 1 used
** route walked by David Barrat.

We must take into account that while Mizen may not have pushed the ambulance himself, it cannot be discounted and certainly he returned with it. This was heavy and it is likely it would not take as short a time on the return journey as that going to get it.
We must also allow for some interaction at the station, given that others returned with him, and the time to actually get the ambulance which may only have been a few seconds, but could conceivable be longer.

David Barrat who posts as David Orsam has walked the first of the two routes and did this in exactly 7mins which suggests he is walking at 5mph, the route has not changed since 1888.

So assuming that Mizen could do this in the same time we have a return time of :

7 minutes trip to station.
7 minutes trip back.
Interaction 2 minutes we have a return time of 16minutes

However it is more likely that the trip would take longer and 4 miles an hour is probably the best that could be achieved over the distance, possible much slower, this gives us a return time of over 19 minutes.

This will have serious implication for the next section of the project.

Just an initial observation Steve. I walk pretty quickly, however, my average speed, as measured over a 1.2 mile, virtually straight, distance is just under 4 miles an hour. Any faster than that and I'd be running! I would therefore agree that, in this respect, your conclusions are very reasonable.

[Elamarna]

Just an initial observation Steve. I walk pretty quickly, however, my average speed, as measured over a 1.2 mile, virtually straight, distance is just under 4 miles an hour. Any faster than that and I'd be running! I would therefore agree that, in this respect, your conclusions are very reasonable.

John

That is one reason I have gone for 3.5mph as my preferred speed. It's quick but not ridiculously so. And of course I give options for speeds from 3 to 5mph on most tables.
The idea is for people to look and say what they think is reasonable with reasons for that.

I guess therefore this is a little different from most threads; But I said in October how I was going to do this.

Steve

[Varqm]

That's good.We can see the different possibilities.I would assume they would take the shortest routes in going to work since they have been going to it for some time.But sometimes who knows one could take a different route for a change,I don't see how it would make them late.
One thing, what did they used to state their time, for ex. Lechmere or Paul leaving their homes, and how reliable.

[Robert St Devil]

based on the graph in post 5, 316 yards from murder site to mizen
3 to 3.5 mph is the best suggestion
didn,t paul say the whole interaction from cross to mizen happen in 4 minutes?
Subtracting a 1/2 minute to one minute allowance for the cross-paul interaction, the speed of their walk ranges between 90 to 105 ypm.

certain i,m rehashing another thread
if there was a known average for the rate at which the further extremities [beyond the elbow] lost temperature compared to the near extremities [before] ...
that could average the duration from her death

[Pierre]

Hi Steve,

You write:

This information will allow us to look at what has been called “the blood Evidence” and to see if it holds up when applied against realistic timings,

There are two serious research problems here:

1. There is no valid data for the so called "blood evidence", operationalized as "blood oozing" or even "flowing", since the use of the expression in Victorian times often was resultative. "Blood oozing" was said by doctors and others to have been observed by them at times after death when blood had stopped coming out of the observed bodies.

2. Therefore, applying the non valid and non reliable hypothesis about a "blood evidence" against "realistic timings" is not generating scientific knowledge.

Best wishes, Pierre

[Elamarna]

That's good.We can see the different possibilities.I would assume they would take the shortest routes in going to work since they have been going to it for some time.But sometimes who knows one could take a different route for a change,I don't see how it would make them late.
One thing, what did they used to state their time, for ex. Lechmere or Paul leaving their homes, and how reliable.

Yes one does not always take the shortest route and I prefer the second shortest myself, less walking on main roads and so less probability of any delays, but honestly it could be any of those I list or even maybe one I have not considered.
That as kattrub rightly says give us slot to guess at.

The times given for leaving home are based on the statements of Paul and Lechmere.
Neither is backed by any independent source and that is why I say absolute times are all but impossible to set..

Steve

[Elamarna]

based on the graph in post 5, 316 yards from murder site to mizen
3 to 3.5 mph is the best suggestion
didn,t paul say the whole interaction from cross to mizen happen in 4 minutes?
Subtracting a 1/2 minute to one minute allowance for the cross-paul interaction, the speed of their walk ranges between 90 to 105 ypm.

certain i,m rehashing another thread
if there was a known average for the rate at which the further extremities [beyond the elbow] lost temperature compared to the near extremities [before] ...
that could average the duration from her death

The issue of Paul saying it took less than 4 minutes is something I will address in part 3.

I see you allow 1 min max for exchange between Paul and Lechmere and as I said in the first post, this and the exchange with mizen and Llewellyn getting dressed are guess work and can be no more.

I allow 1minute 30 for this exchange but can accept 1 minute happily; less just does not seem likely to me. Just too much to happen in my view.


Not sure that will be of any help even if there were figures as no temperatures were taken so any observations made at the time are subjective .