[QUOTE=Fisherman;245943]Paul B:
"Nope. Not it. Nowhere near it. But I can see where you are misunderstanding me.
We cannot say whether the evidence against Kosminski was good or bad, we cannot assess the probability of his guilt or innocence, we cannot say whether he was in reality a strong suspect (likely to have been the murderer) or a weak suspect (unlikely to have been the murderer).
We can say with some degree of certainty that Kosminski was considered to be a strong suspect back then. We can say that because people from back then and who were in a position to know tell he was. And we can say with reasonable confidence that the people back then had reasons for suspecting him. We can say that because sensible and intelligent and informed people, especially policemen, generally have reasons for suspecting someone.
How we view Kosminski as a suspect on the evidence available to us today doesn't matter diddly. It would matter if we knew what the evidence was and could assess it and assess the probabilities, but we don't know what it was, so we can't assess it. But Kosminski was a serious suspect back then. No doubt about that."
I donīt object about any of this, Paul. It all tallies with what I think myself. The only thing I would add is that you forget to say that just as we have senior officers promoting Kosminski enthusiastically, we have other senior officers dissing him. Otherwise, this is something I agree with. I have not said that he was not a hot lead back then - I am saying that on basis of what we have on him TODAY, we can not state that he is a strong suspect. Period. And you have given all the reasons for this yourself.
[I]I am of course aware of what other policemen said, but I am in general as ignorant of why they said those things as I am of why Macnaghten et al said the things they said.
On the basis of what we know about Kosminski today it is arguable that Kosminski is only a marginally better suspect than Queen Victoria. But the evidence we have today doesn't mean diddly. It's what they thought back then that matters. Back then Kosminski was a strong suspect. And if he was a strong suspect back then, he's still a strong suspect today. Why? Because nothing has changed. As far as we know the evidence they had against him back then is as strong today as it was back then. The only way it could change now is if we knew what it was and could evaluate it. But we can't. Right now it doesn't exist. Maybe it is lost forever.
And know and understand that you're not saying he wasn't, but that you are saying he isn't. I am saying that you are wrong. You see, nobody is asking you to agree with what Anderson said and that's just as well because you can't honestly do that. You don't know why he said it, so there is no reason why you should agree with him. The trouble is that you can't disagree with him either, for the self same reason: you don't know the evidence on which what Anderson said was based.
But in discounting Kosminski's status as a suspect today, based on the evidence you possess today (which is next to nothing), you are discounting his status as a suspect back then, a status based on evidence that existed back then. You can't do that. You don't know what the evidence was. You can't discount Kosminski's worth as a suspect simply because you don't know what the evidence was than made others take him seriously and even think he was Jack the Ripper. We don't deny or devalue or diminish what people tell us about their past simply because we don't know why they tell us it.
"Nope. Not it. Nowhere near it. But I can see where you are misunderstanding me.
We cannot say whether the evidence against Kosminski was good or bad, we cannot assess the probability of his guilt or innocence, we cannot say whether he was in reality a strong suspect (likely to have been the murderer) or a weak suspect (unlikely to have been the murderer).
We can say with some degree of certainty that Kosminski was considered to be a strong suspect back then. We can say that because people from back then and who were in a position to know tell he was. And we can say with reasonable confidence that the people back then had reasons for suspecting him. We can say that because sensible and intelligent and informed people, especially policemen, generally have reasons for suspecting someone.
How we view Kosminski as a suspect on the evidence available to us today doesn't matter diddly. It would matter if we knew what the evidence was and could assess it and assess the probabilities, but we don't know what it was, so we can't assess it. But Kosminski was a serious suspect back then. No doubt about that."
I donīt object about any of this, Paul. It all tallies with what I think myself. The only thing I would add is that you forget to say that just as we have senior officers promoting Kosminski enthusiastically, we have other senior officers dissing him. Otherwise, this is something I agree with. I have not said that he was not a hot lead back then - I am saying that on basis of what we have on him TODAY, we can not state that he is a strong suspect. Period. And you have given all the reasons for this yourself.
[I]I am of course aware of what other policemen said, but I am in general as ignorant of why they said those things as I am of why Macnaghten et al said the things they said.
On the basis of what we know about Kosminski today it is arguable that Kosminski is only a marginally better suspect than Queen Victoria. But the evidence we have today doesn't mean diddly. It's what they thought back then that matters. Back then Kosminski was a strong suspect. And if he was a strong suspect back then, he's still a strong suspect today. Why? Because nothing has changed. As far as we know the evidence they had against him back then is as strong today as it was back then. The only way it could change now is if we knew what it was and could evaluate it. But we can't. Right now it doesn't exist. Maybe it is lost forever.
Originally posted by Fisherman
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But in discounting Kosminski's status as a suspect today, based on the evidence you possess today (which is next to nothing), you are discounting his status as a suspect back then, a status based on evidence that existed back then. You can't do that. You don't know what the evidence was. You can't discount Kosminski's worth as a suspect simply because you don't know what the evidence was than made others take him seriously and even think he was Jack the Ripper. We don't deny or devalue or diminish what people tell us about their past simply because we don't know why they tell us it.
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