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Will Scotland Yards HOLMES 2 and AI solve Jack the Ripper?

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  • Will Scotland Yards HOLMES 2 and AI solve Jack the Ripper?

    What is HOLMES 2 ? Basically it is a Platform for Big Data Analytics. It is based on Palantir Technologies and likely other apps integrated for, in this case, criminal analysis. Scotland Yard, FBI..most Agencies have similar Platforms today.

    I didn't know anything about the movie..Jack the Ripper..Case Reopened with Emilia Fox and David Wilson, who in my mind, were more Moderators than Experts. I just watched it. I did search Emilia Fox and saw, and read, the Pub Talk on Wilson. I cant comment on Wison or Fox, I really don't know of them but I did research Scotland Yards HOLMES and HOLMES2. I recognized Palantir immediately from my previous life before retiree. I could find nothing in the search on HOLMES.

    What struck me is that Scotland Yard had an overall " Objective " analysis using HOLMES and this was very different from the " subjective" analysis and rankings ive seen attempted on Casebook. My apologies if an Objective Analysis exists on the site outside of what Scotland Yard did.

    To clarify, the input data was Objective data based on sworn testimony, records, photographs and any evidence Scotland Yard determined to be authentic. So an example might be that the sworn testimony of eyewitnesses would be considered factual. Unfortunately its not clear how far Scotland Yard has gone with the analysis. They did share some things.

    There were some findings by Experts in fields like Geospatial modeling , forensics and psychological profiling that were applied. Here are 5 that I found interesting:

    1. Martha Tabrum was the first victim. Determined by overkill and method.
    2. JtR was a Marauder not a Commuter- meaning he lived in the area.
    3. The next 4 victims Nichols, Chapman, Stride and Eddowes were virtually of equal distance from Tabrum in the East, North, South and West Geospace.
    4. Mary Kelly was the only victim murdered inside and only victim to be skinned.
    5. All 6 victims were murdered in a confined space.

    So the Rippers boundaries in each direction are his comfort zone. Scotland Yard drew horizontal lines through Chapman and Stride and Vertical lines through Eddowes and Nichols. This was the overall zone of where JtR felt comfortable traveling.

    The other finding in the HOLMES analysis was a heat map that showed higher probabilities of comfort zone. The highest marked by proximity of Tabrum to Chapman, Eddowes and Kelly. This was also close to Butchers Row and basically in the Jewish Quarter.

    The Scotland Yard conclusion, so far, is that the killer lived near where Martha Tabrum was murdered and this was the killers first victim. They select Aaron Kosminski as the likely killer because of his profile and where he lived. However it's not clear if Kosminski lived on Greenfield St or Providence Ct.

    In truth, the other candidate that fits the Scotland Yard analysis using Objective data, is of course Jacob Levy. Both he and Kosminski lived near George Yard. Jacob Levys wife actually lived right there on Bull CT. Levy also lived on Fieldgate Street near Greenfield.

    I can't imagine that Scotland Yard would not use every bit of factual data it could get it's hands on. I know they have the best modern tools for analysis and would consider that an advantage.

    If JtR wasn't Kosminski or Levy then it was likely someone unknown, perhaps a yet to be identified slaughterman on Butchers Row that lived with his brother. Kosminski lived with his brother and Levy was a butcher. Both insane.

    HOLMES2? what next? A.I. ?




  • #2
    Will Scotland Yards HOLMES 2 and AI solve Jack the Ripper?

    No.

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    • #3
      Nope...

      Comment


      • #4
        Analysis can give us probabilities, not solutions. AI isn't artificial intelligence, it's information scraping, and it often provides fictional answers.
        "The full picture always needs to be given. When this does not happen, we are left to make decisions on insufficient information." - Christer Holmgren

        "Unfortunately, when one becomes obsessed by a theory, truth and logic rarely matter." - Steven Blomer

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Fiver View Post
          Analysis can give us probabilities, not solutions. AI isn't artificial intelligence, it's information scraping, and it often provides fictional answers.
          The data used by Scotland Yard was Objective not fictional.

          It truly amazes me in the year 2025 how technology averse so many on this Forum truly are. If you say NO then please defend your conclusion. What do you mean by NO?

          Big Data Analytics using Objective data (facts),
          not Subjective opinion based on emotion is what was used by Scotland Yard.

          All of the rankings I have seen on this site are subjective. There is no clear definition of what constitutes the answers.

          Here is a challenge, if you strongly believe JtR did not live in Whitechapel- Kosminski, Levy, and Chapman are a Yes although it's not clear what street Kosminski lived on in 1888, then state facts to illustrate why Bury or Maybrick or whoever, succeeded as a Commuter. Here again based on facts.

          Objective data is Fact, not Fiction. The results from Scotland Yard, using Objective data came to a set of conclusions. To restate

          1. JtR was a Marauder not a Commuter. He lived there.
          2. His boundary of operation , N, S, E, W. Are defined by the victims.
          3. Tabrum was the first victim as defined by Overkill as demonstrated by her wounds and as seen in successive, escalated mutilations.
          4. Based on witness testimony the killer was likely Jewish.
          5. Heat maps based on data- primarily witness testimony, location of murders and post mortem records associated with Tabrum, Chapman, Eddowes and Kelly show a comfort zone concentration North of Butchers Row , Mitre Street to the West Hanbury Street to the North and George Yard to the East. 4 of the 6 murders occured in this Zone and 5 of the 6 known witnesses were also from this Zone. ( Zones are used in modeling software).
          6. The 4 murders defining the NSEW boundary were equidistant to Tabrums murder.

          Fractured? Facts or Fiction. Objective or Subjective. At the end of the day there are only facts in a criminal case. It does not mean you can't exercise theories and investigate.

          I personally believe that Scotland Yard is close. But I dont believe it was Kosminski.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Patrick Differ View Post

            The data used by Scotland Yard was Objective not fictional.
            Most of the data is from newspaper accounts which are subjective and at times contradictory. The police accounts disagree significantly on number of victims and if certain suspects were the Ripper. Medical experts did not have the ability to determine time of death and disagreed significantly on the level of skill shown by the killer. Witnesses estimated time based on unsynchronized timepieces of unknown accuracy. We don't know which, if any, of the witnesses saw the Ripper, nor how accurate their descriptions were. We don't know if any of the writings ascribed to the Ripper were actually penned by them.

            So we don't have objective data in the first place.

            Then there are the limitations of the misnamed artificial intelligence. They are data scraping machines. Any ability to weigh sources is dependent on the skill and possible bias of the programmers and the people choosing what data to give to the program.

            And when it doesn't have an answer AI have been shown to just make things up. The lawyers for the MyPillow guy are the latest to fall into that trap.
            "The full picture always needs to be given. When this does not happen, we are left to make decisions on insufficient information." - Christer Holmgren

            "Unfortunately, when one becomes obsessed by a theory, truth and logic rarely matter." - Steven Blomer

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Fiver View Post

              Most of the data is from newspaper accounts which are subjective and at times contradictory. The police accounts disagree significantly on number of victims and if certain suspects were the Ripper. Medical experts did not have the ability to determine time of death and disagreed significantly on the level of skill shown by the killer. Witnesses estimated time based on unsynchronized timepieces of unknown accuracy. We don't know which, if any, of the witnesses saw the Ripper, nor how accurate their descriptions were. We don't know if any of the writings ascribed to the Ripper were actually penned by them.

              So we don't have objective data in the first place.

              Then there are the limitations of the misnamed artificial intelligence. They are data scraping machines. Any ability to weigh sources is dependent on the skill and possible bias of the programmers and the people choosing what data to give to the program.

              And when it doesn't have an answer AI have been shown to just make things up. The lawyers for the MyPillow guy are the latest to fall into that trap.
              Objective data is considered fact. Lawende was with Levy and Harris and I doubt all 3 were making something up. Same with the other witnesses.

              Where the women were murdered is a fact. What happened to Their bodies is fact. Timing is within 15 to 30 minutes, although in this analysis it really does not matter. But it's still a fact.

              You are not correct Fiver. There is Objective data and I doubt Scotland Yard would have bothered to get involved as this would be a waste of time.There is no bias if they are using actual objective data. They use HOLMES in ongoing cases and you would expect that their behavioral analysis is based on large data sets. Which they basically state.

              AI does not make things up. It uses Objective data. That said, it can be used to play What if scenarios to test theories or fill in gaps in the analysis. Corporations use this in risk analysis. They might ask as an example- what is the risk if I dont invest in security for my production plant. The Objective data would illustrate the risk based on things like computer hacking in similar industries. Facts.

              How that apples to JtR based on what Scotland Yard did I only have the Movie to point to. But I would expect that they would have some data on the methods used to mutilate. They did point to the throat cutting as a signature. As was the posing of bodies. Again facts. Not subjective.

              Cheers.



              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Patrick Differ View Post

                Objective data is considered fact. Lawende was with Levy and Harris and I doubt all 3 were making something up. Same with the other witnesses.
                Witness accounts can be inaccurate without anyone lying. Human perception and memory are fallible.

                Lawende, Levy , and Harris saw a couple near Mitre Square. Levy disagreed with Lawende about when the sighting occurred and how tall the man was. There are at least 3 different versions of what Lawende said - they disagree on the suspects height, hair color, and the size of the mustache. Harris said the man's back was turned the whole time, which contradicts Lawende's claims to know the size and color of the suspect's mustache or that there was a red neckerchief around the suspect's neck

                That's before we consider that only Lawende identified Eddowes and he could have been wrong.

                So where is the "objective data"?
                "The full picture always needs to be given. When this does not happen, we are left to make decisions on insufficient information." - Christer Holmgren

                "Unfortunately, when one becomes obsessed by a theory, truth and logic rarely matter." - Steven Blomer

                Comment

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