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Geographic Profiler clears Kosminski, collars Chapman....

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  • Robert
    replied
    Gareth, Newton actually came up with what was to become Einstein's theory of gravity - but an apple fell on his head and he forgot all about it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sam Flynn
    replied
    Hi, Colin

    Note that gravity decreases inversely as the square of the distance, so you should be dividing your distances by 9 instead of 3, 4 instead of 2, etc. This will entail extra work, but it should eventually lead to a circle so tight that you'd have to declare which of Jack's feet were on the spot at any given time.

    Only kidding Intrigued to see what you've got up your sleeve.

    Leave a comment:


  • Carrotty Nell
    replied
    Geographical profiling is very interesting and I am sure likely to be fairly accurate. Likely as not the killer would come from some location central to the murders. But that is just the problem. We don't know exactly what to include. If we include Annie Millwood and Ada Wilson it would give a different centre of gravity. If we include the torso murders it would throw the centre of gravity out still further. So sadly I think we can only really deal in generalities. The killer came from somewhere roughly central to the C5, but we have known all along that is likely, that is one of the oldest and most obvious theories about the case, and unless we can be more certain about which murders/attacks are to be attributed to the one individual, we cannot refine the geographical search any more precisely.

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  • bolo
    replied
    Septic Blue,

    interesting post but I'm not sure what to make of it, the combination of crime and physics is quite new to me.

    Leave a comment:


  • Doctor X
    replied
    Yes . . . but did you consider that Martha was heavier than, say, Mary Kelly?





    *Flees Flying Bricks*

    --J.D.

    P.S. People can take an idea, attach science to it, and think it is science. They--not you Septic Blue--are doing what Prof. Park deems "Voodoo Science."

    The only validity I can see is that killers may choose an area with which they are familiar and to which they may easily travel. As you note, it does not exactly narrow down the suspects.

    Now . . . if you consider the astrological charts of the victims. . . .

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    "The Crimes, Detection and Death of Jack the Ripper", by Martin Fido
    1993 Barnes & Noble Books

    Chapter 20: "Jack the Ripper"

    - pg. 216:
    "Infection with syphilis proved an active sex-life among the local prostitutes: its incubation period is short, and local Jewish girls were totally implausible carriers."

    Again:
    "Infection with syphilis proved an active sex-life among the local prostitutes:…"

    --- It did ???

    - pg. 216:
    "But it was when I found Black Lion Yard that I was sure I had found Jack the Ripper. This ran between Old Montague Street and … It was almost exactly at the centre point of the five murders."

    Again:
    "But it was when I found Black Lion Yard that I was sure I had found Jack the Ripper."

    --- Infection with syphilis, and a local address: What other proof does one need ???

    Again:
    "It was almost exactly at the centre point of the five murders." (my emphasis)

    --- 15 Black Lion Yard, St. Mary Whitechapel was according to Google Earth, approximately 185 yards (straight-line) from the epicenter of the "M-5" murder sites. If we're going to be "exact"; then let's be "exact"!!!

    I have seen the concept of "center point"/"center of gravity"/"epicenter" used once too often, in regard to the murder sites typically associated with Jack the Ripper.

    In almost every instance (actually, in every instance), the perpetrator has simply "eyeballed" or "guess-timated" the center of gravity, and then used it to promote some sort of agenda or theory:

    "It was almost exactly at the centre point of the five murders." (my emphasis)

    But, as I have already claimed:

    "15 Black Lion Yard, St. Mary Whitechapel was according to Google Earth, approximately 185 yards (straight-line) from the epicenter of the "M-5" murder sites."

    How do I know this to be the case ???

    Click image for larger version

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    Green Dot ("6"): The Center of Gravity of the Following Murder Sites: Tabram; Nichols; Chapman; Stride; Eddowes; Kelly

    It is located at the southwest corner of Wentworth Street / Osborn Street, St. Mary Whitechapel; approximately seven feet north of the northeast corner of the building, which occupies that spot today.

    I have calculated the center of gravity, using three sequences of measurements (Red; Blue; Gold), which all lead to this precise spot. I have also used a fourth sequence of measurements (not depicted), which leads precisely to the same center of gravity. It's ironclad, folks: Trust Me !!!

    The sequences of measurements are really quite simple.

    Red (Order of General Acceptance as Victim of JTR):

    - Begin at Chapman's murder site, and measure the distance to Nichols's murder site. Because Nichols is exerting half of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by two. Move 462.76 yards to point "2".

    - From point "2", measure the distance to Eddowes's murder site. Because Eddowes is exerting one third of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by three. Move 394.44 yards to point "3".

    - From point "3", measure the distance to Kelly's murder site. Because Kelly is exerting one fourth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by four. Move 92.00 yards to point "4".

    - From point "4", measure the distance to Stride's murder site. Because Stride is exerting one fifth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by five. Move 141.65 yards to point "5".

    Each "point" represents the center of gravity of all of the murder sites used thus far. Therefore, point "5" (Red) is the center of gravity of the "M-5" murder sites.

    - From point "5", measure the distance to Tabram's murder site. Because Tabram is exerting one sixth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by six. Move 20.53 yards to point "6".

    This is the center of gravity of the six murder sites under consideration !!!

    Blue (Order of Murder Chronology):

    - Begin at Tabram's murder site, and measure the distance to Nichols's murder site. Because Nichols is exerting half of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by two. Move 472.92 yards to point "2".

    - From point "2", measure the distance to Chapman's murder site. Because Chapman is exerting one third of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by three. Move 183.76 yards to point "3".

    - From point "3", measure the distance to Stride's murder site. Because Stride is exerting one fourth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by four. Move 171.13 yards to point "4".

    - From point "4", measure the distance to Eddowes's murder site. Because Eddowes is exerting one fifth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by five. Move 186.93 yards to point "5".

    - From point "5", measure the distance to Kelly's murder site. Because Kelly is exerting one sixth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by six. Move 76.83 yards to point "6".

    Once, Again: This is the center of gravity of the six murder sites under consideration !!!

    Gold (Order of Proximity to Known Epicenter):

    - Begin at Tabram's murder site, and measure the distance to Kelly's murder site. Because Kelly is exerting half of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by two. Move 168.33 yards to point "2".

    - From point "2", measure the distance to Chapman's murder site. Because Chapman is exerting one third of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by three. Move 112.14 yards to point "3".

    - From point "3", measure the distance to Stride's murder site. Because Stride is exerting one fourth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by four. Move 207.37 yards to point "4".

    - From point "4", measure the distance to Eddowes's murder site. Because Eddowes is exerting one fifth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by five. Move 136.99 yards to point "5".

    - From point "5", measure the distance to Nichols's murder site. Because Nichols is exerting one sixth of the total gravitational pull thus far, divide the distance by six. Move 168.70 yards to point "6".

    Once, Again: This is the center of gravity of the six murder sites under consideration !!!

    Each of the three sequences of measurements - as well as a fourth (not depicted) - leads to precisely the same epicenter or center of gravity !!!!!

    Well, now that we know where our murder-site epicenter is located, what do we do ???

    We can start by addressing this fallacious assertion:

    "It was almost exactly at the centre point of the five murders." (my emphasis)

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    1894 OS
    Red: 15 Black Lion Yard, St. Mary Whitechapel
    Red Dot: Epicenter ("M-5")
    Yellow: The Smallest Circle, Centered on the "M-5" Epicenter, Containing Nathan Kaminsky's Residence Within
    Purple Dot: Epicenter ("M-5" + Tabram)

    It would appear that perhaps four-to-five thousand people lived in closer proximity to the "M-5" epicenter, in 1888, than did Nathan Kaminsky. I wonder if any of them had syphilis ???

    Moving right along …

    I have been conducting a great deal of analysis, using various epicenters as my focal points: I have drawn dozens, upon dozens, upon dozens of circles, around these centers of gravity for various analytical purposes.

    I intend to present a great deal of my work to the Casebook community; but nothing will be forthcoming until I am able to obtain Stephen's approval for some graphics-intensive dissertations. The message boards cannot accommodate the sort of imagery I wish to present.

    Like it; or not: These centers of gravity are a reality. They can be used as the basis of meaningful analysis, just as they can be used to promote fallacy. I believe that my focus is aimed squarely at the former.

    My overall aim is the establishment of that, which constitutes "local", with regard to the six murder sites that have been considered here. I truly believe that very few of us have any conception of how the term "local" should apply to our studies of Jack the Ripper.

    We simply don't seem to realize that a very sizeable portion of the East End was not worthy the distinction "local"; whereas a sizeable portion of the area that did merit the distinction was not in the East End. If we simply plant our feet at the Aldgate Pump, and look eastward along the High Street, we are ignoring a tremendous chunk of London Real Estate that should have fallen under police scrutiny in 1888, and continued under our scrutiny to this day.

    None of my work will constitute any semblance of an attempt to "profile" the person(s) we seek to identify.

    I will attempt to establish a "killing field" or "area of operations", from the perspective that all we really have at our disposal is a "sample distribution" of six murder sites that fail to paint a complete picture of the parameters that would have been defined, had these murders continued indefinitely. It will be up to the individual Ripperologist to decide whether a door-to-door salesman is likely to be found residing within his area of operations; whether a doctor who makes house-calls is likely to be found residing within his area of operations; whether a serial-killer is likely to be found residing within his area of operations.

    Much, much, much more to follow, in the next few weeks !!! But, I'm not sure where or in what format.


    Colin Click image for larger version

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    P.S. All of the measurements, which I have used to calculate various centers of gravity, will have to be re-calibrated roughly 0.10% (+), in accordance with recent (sudden) Google Earth changes in calibration. But, everything will remain relative.

    Also; Tabram's murder site will have to be moved approximately twelve feet west/southwest, thanks to John Bennett's recent remarkable discovery that the murder almost unquestionably occurred on an outdoor landing at the back of George Yard Buildings. That will change everything by a few yards.

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    Last edited by Septic Blue; 05-06-2008, 09:08 AM.

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  • Doctor X
    replied
    Originally posted by Glenn Lauritz Andersson View Post
    Complete nonsense and rubbish from beginning to end. Embarrasing and pathetic.
    Wish I had written that. . . .

    --J.D.

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  • Glenn Lauritz Andersson
    replied
    Originally posted by Magpie View Post
    New article y'all may find interesting....

    http://www.worthingherald.co.uk/late...ack.4049398.jp

    A geographical profiler claims his research clears Kosminski and point to George Chapman as the RIpper.
    Complete nonsense and rubbish from beginning to end. Embarrasing and pathetic.

    All the best

    Leave a comment:


  • Roy Corduroy
    replied
    Hi, everyone

    So is this broadshoulders? Klosowski. He does the double then doubles back. To... Flower & Dean, the White Hart, 126 Cable Street. Which?

    Geoprofiling is common sense. Police use it all the time. You can't split frog hairs with it, but its OK.

    Thanks,

    Roy

    Leave a comment:


  • m_w_r
    replied
    Originally posted by Christine View Post
    There is a formula, but it's hardly worth posting. Obviously the center for one murder is right under the murder, two murders would be right in the middle of the line separating them, and the center for four murders in a square would be right in the middle of the square.
    Hi,

    This is neatly expressed, but, as you are aware, somewhat reductive. I am not an expert by any means in this area, but it is obvious that factors other than simple geography must also be taken into account. Time, for example, might be one of these. Just out of interest, this is from Oliver Cyriax's The Penguin Encyclopedia of Crime, discussing Sutcliffe:

    There were seventeen known attack sites; clearly the murderer had to travel to each of them from home, and then return to home from each of them. So, 'What single point on the map was nearest to all the attack sites?' The answer was Heaton, between Manningham and Shipley, where Sutcliffe lived. Further corroboration came from the neat idea that the late-night attacks probably happened nearest home - he was nearly back - whereas those earlier in the evening would be further away, allowing more time to drive home.

    Bill Beadle makes a similar use of what I suppose we might call "chronological" profiling in his case against Bury.

    Regards,

    Mark

    Leave a comment:


  • Fisherman
    replied
    Christine writes:

    "Obviously the center for one murder is right under the murder, two murders would be right in the middle of the line separating them, and the center for four murders in a square would be right in the middle of the square."

    One wonders whether constables were dispatched to the places in question back in 1888...?

    The best!
    Fisherman

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  • Christine
    replied
    If you made a thin, light, rigid plate, printed it with a map of Whitechapel, and put weights on it where each of the murders took place, that plate would balance at one spot, and that would be the center of gravity.

    There is a formula, but it's hardly worth posting. Obviously the center for one murder is right under the murder, two murders would be right in the middle of the line separating them, and the center for four murders in a square would be right in the middle of the square.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mike Covell
    replied
    Thanks for that link Chris Lowe,

    I had the doc on dvd but seem to have misplaced it, along with my maybrick diary dvd, so I will bookmark for later and watch when the kids are in bed!

    "se a vida a!"

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  • truebluedub
    replied
    Here's the big problem with using geographical profiling in relation to Jack the Ripper ""To carry out a full geographical profile you would also need to include encounter locations, offence locations and similar in the calculations," he said."
    Since these will change depending on a researcher's view no results will ever be definitive.
    In fairness to the Dr. Bryant he does seem to treat the profile as a suggestive rather than being the final proof.
    Also that documentary mentioned by Mike a couple of posts ago is probably this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnzo0JiX4OY it's actually fairly good doesn't really go into speculating on suspects.

    Kind regards
    Chris Lowe (not my famous namesake)

    Leave a comment:


  • Natalie Severn
    replied
    What about Rev.Barnett who lived "in the very heart of the murders"-in fact adjacent to the site of Martha Tabram"s murder and not more than 150 yards from Alice McKenzie"s murder-----the very heart indeed!He wrote to the press that "the murders were almost bound to come" and about the effect on impressionable people of the brutal slaughtering of animals in Aldgate High Street--"-animals slaughtered in the midst of Whitechapel,bloodstained butchers familiar on the streets and brutalising sights, common and frequent".
    Well quite right----just so long as he wasnt one of those "impressionable people"! He claimed "The Whitechapel horrors will not be in vain if "at last"the public conscience awakes to consider the life which these horrors reveal"........Poor old Barnett----I know I do him a disservice here but what the hell....he can join Prince Eddy ,Gull,JK Stevens and the host of other unlikely celebrities!
    Last edited by Natalie Severn; 05-05-2008, 03:09 PM.

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