Motives

[FrankO]

If you can produce one, that’s just 1, only one, psychological profile that is even 90% accurate I would consider changing my view.

Hi smezenen,

I hope you don’t me butting in, but I’d like to say a few things. When people are discussing the subject of profiling, it seems they only have the FBI or at least American profiling in mind. But obviously, America isn’t the only country that uses profiling and profiling isn’t done in the same way in every country.

Personally, I’m not that big a fan, if you will, of American profiling because American profilers aren’t psychologists and their profiles are based on statistics rather than on the psychological evidence of each individual case.

Then, although I understand you’d prefer Corey to answer your question, I’d like to offer an answer. Norman Azval Simons (Mitchell’s Plain, South Africa), a.k.a. the Station Strangler, was apprehended because he looked like the identikit that was drawn up of him, but also because he seemed to fit the profile that was partly released to the press. As it turned out, the profile was accurate.

Another example of an accurate profile was that of the Phoenix/Cane Killer, who turned out to be Sipho Agmatir Twala. Both these profiles were drawn up by psychologist Micki Pistorius, who was the first Profiler to be appointed to South African Police Service (SAPS) and the founder & Commander of Investigative Psych Unit, Serious & Violent Crimes Component of SAPS. Although I can’t check it, in one of her books she writes that her profiles were 95 to 99% accurate in the 35 serial killer cases she was involved in.

All the best,
Frank

[DVV]

I'm currently profiling some casebook posters.
Wait and see...

Amitiés all,
David

[smezenen]

Hi smezenen,

I hope you don’t me butting in, but I’d like to say a few things. When people are discussing the subject of profiling, it seems they only have the FBI or at least American profiling in mind. But obviously, America isn’t the only country that uses profiling and profiling isn’t done in the same way in every country.

All the best,
Frank

Frank,
Thanks for your reply, I don’t mind at all. In fact I welcome the information. and I agree we here in America just dont do profiling right. There are 5K+ profiles in the database I have access to but my clearance only allows me to view about 3500 so I will admit that I haven’t viewed them all in fact I have only viewed a small amount of them. What I have looked at scores low for actual accuracy and thats the bigest issue I have with profiling and also why I think its overall an ineffective tool. Its proclaimed to be accurate but most people only see the publicly released information not the stuff held back. You would be suprised at how often and how fast the profile changes from start to finish and often the final profile that is released has information that is aquired from witness description of the suspect and not any psycological pre-evaluation of the subject as is claimed.
I did research the two killers you brought forth and will post a seperate reply with my findings. Once again thanks.

[smezenen]

The two names you give are interesting in their own right and I look forward to reading Dr. Micki Pistorius’ book in its entirety, we do have a copy of it here in our library. I have found issue with her statements as regards to the Phoenix Killer, Sipho Agmatir Twala. According to her the mother stated he was aggressive and scared them and that he was moody and dangerous this fits her profile, however the case file as forwarded to the FBI thru INTERPOL has the following statement from his mother. “Khathazile Ntanzi, described Twala as an intelligent man who could read and write even though he never received schooling beyond Grade 1.”He was a normal child, a gentleman and helpful around the house. "He never changed his behavior. He would even occasionally condemn the killings and said he hoped the killer would be caught soon." The two statements greatly conflict and if the INTERPOL statement is correct then Dr. Pistorius’ profiles as well as her statement were inaccurate. It was not her profile that caused his capture it was a DNA sample taken in 1994 when he was arrested for rape that matched the DNA taken from several crime scenes that identified him. So while interesting this killers profile doesn’t fit due to the conflict in the statements.

The other name you give is Norman Azval Simons. Robert Ressler (FBI) actually wrote the profile on this killer, Dr. Pistorius did assist. In this case it was the Identikit drawing (witness sketch) made after Fouzia Hercules claimed to see one of the victims, Elroy van Rooyen, boarding a train with the suspect at Cape Town's Strand station that was used to identify Mr. Simons. This case is being reopened as of December 2009 due to the fact that new evidence has been entered by his lawyer that could clear him of the only murder he is convicted of, that being Elroy van Rooyen, It seem that a Photo was taken by a surveillance camera of Mr. Simons leaving a police station at 5pm the same day as the abduction was to have occurred at the train station. The problem being that the train he was alleged to have left the station around 4:50 pm that day. This photo shows the shows the suspect with short hair, the witness testimony says he had long hair, when arrested he had short hair. There were many different eyewitness descriptions of the suspect and his vehicle taken during the course of the original investigation. Only the description from Fouzia Hercules’s bears any resemblance (minus the hair issue). None of the described vehicle including tag number are associated with Mr. Simon or any of his known associates. There are also discrepancies in DNA evidence that is just now being tested, the technology didn’t exist during the original investigation), result being that the depositor of the semen found on some of the victims came from a secretor (about 80% of the male population), and Mr. Simons is a NON-secretor. He does match the profile to about 95% with the only inaccuracy being he is Black and the Original profile states white, (changed to say black after witness testimony in October 92). So in this case I will have to reserve judgment until we find out if his conviction sticks. But thank you for pointing me to these examples they made for great reading tonight.

If the conviction sticks I will have been proven wrong, and will accept that Psychological Profiling can be a useful tool.

[DVV]

Hi Smezenen,

To me, it's pretty obvious that profiling can be a useful tool - I'm not saying it's always useful, but that it can be.
Btw, since you have alluded to Ressler, there are several examples in his book. Carmine Calabro being, perhaps, the best of all (cleared by the investigation, caught by the profiler!).

Amitiés,
David

[corey123]

Smezenen,

I don't care weather your view on profiling changes, but look at the case of the "Railway rapist" A.K.A John Duffy, profiled by David Canter. This is british profiling.

I perfer his methods of profiling. However, the FBI has recently let Canter come and share his methods and so I also approve of theirs(at some times).

Yours truly

[FrankO]

Hi smezenen,

Thanks for your feedback on the 2 profiles. It got me reading again.

IAccording to her the mother stated he was aggressive and scared them and that he was moody and dangerous this fits her profile, however the case file as forwarded to the FBI thru INTERPOL has the following statement from his mother. “Khathazile Ntanzi, described Twala as an intelligent man who could read and write even though he never received schooling beyond Grade 1.”He was a normal child, a gentleman and helpful around the house. "He never changed his behavior. He would even occasionally condemn the killings and said he hoped the killer would be caught soon."

I don’t have any means to check what’s actually true as to what Twala’s mother stated and to whom. There’s something to say for both sides. On the one hand INTERPOL might be considered more objective. On the other, they weren’t (directly) involved in the case while Pistorius obviously was. It’s even possible that, for some reason, Twala’s mother told one thing to Pistorius and something else to an INTERPOL agent later - Pistorius being a South African and actually involved in the case, unlike the INTERPOL agent whom she might have spoken to longer after the arrest.

That Twala would occasionally condemn the killings doesn’t conflict with the notion that he was aggressive, scaring and moody at times.

The two statements greatly conflict and if the INTERPOL statement is correct then Dr. Pistorius’ profiles as well as her statement were inaccurate.

Even if the INTERPOL statement is correct, this doesn’t mean her profile was inaccurate.

It was not her profile that caused his capture it was a DNA sample taken in 1994 when he was arrested for rape that matched the DNA taken from several crime scenes that identified him. So while interesting this killers profile doesn’t fit due to the conflict in the statements.

I know that, but that wasn’t my point. My point was just that his profile was accurate. To say the profile doesn’t fit because of one incorrect point in a list of many correct points would be exaggerating things a bit too much in my view.

The other name you give is Norman Azval Simons. Robert Ressler (FBI) actually wrote the profile on this killer, Dr. Pistorius did assist.

This is very odd. According to her books, Pistorius joined the South African Police Force on 2 February 1994, which was also the day she got involved in the Station Strangler case. Even though she writes she hadn't been trained by ex-FBI agents yet at that point, she compiled the profile according the FBI recipe and with what she had learned about serial killers during her doctoral thesis. She finished the profile a couple of weeks later, and part of it was released to the media on 25 February.

Between those dates the SAPS contacted Ressler, or so she wrote, but it was decided that he wouldn’t visit South Africa before the elections, which would take place in April 1994. On 13 April Simons was arrested. She explicitly states that somewhere during April or May she faxed the profile to Ressler and that that was the first time he had any insight into her profile.

But again, I don't have any means to check who was the actual compiler of the profile, Ressler or Pistorius.

In this case it was the Identikit drawing (witness sketch) made after Fouzia Hercules claimed to see one of the victims, Elroy van Rooyen, boarding a train with the suspect at Cape Town's Strand station that was used to identify Mr. Simons.

In her books Pistorius states that a nurse at a private psychiatric clinic thought the identikit looked like a patient and that this patient seemed to fit the profile as it had been released to the media.

He does match the profile to about 95% with the only inaccuracy being he is Black and the Original profile states white, (changed to say black after witness testimony in October 92).

If there was a profile before October '92 (the end of the first series), it indeed wasn't written by Pistorius, because, as I wrote above, she only joined the SAPS in February 1994. She makes no mention whatsoever about any earlier profile or any other than her own.

Having said that, it strikes me as very odd indeed that this original profile states white.The profile in Pistorius's books states that the suspect would be of coloured race, but that he might be a white man who grew up with coloured people. The reason why she thought he’d probably be black is that the activities of a white man operating in the Mitchell’s Plain area would have been noted.

As this is a notion that even I would have been able to come up with, the idea of the original profile stating the perpetrator as white, is all the more odd. What also makes it odd is that Pistorius predicted that the Strangler sodomized boys because they represented Simons himself being sodomised as a child. As the boys were black, the Strangler would be black. So, also from that point of view she would have predicted him black.

I'm curious about the outcome of this re-opening of the case, so I'd look forward to any news, should you get any.

All the best,
Frank

PS Perhaps it's better to turn to the 'Profiling' thread if we want to continue our discussion.

[Tom_Wescott]

I just read Frank Van Oploo's post from yesterday, and it's probably the smartest post I've read on profiling in some time. Don't be offended anyne and it's the only post on this thread I've read so far. LOL. I clicked the link and just saw it.

As an American, I'm not a fan AT ALL of our serial killer profiling, which in 28 years has yet to catch one serial killer (unless you count Wayne Williams, who is almost unanimously considered to NOT be the Atlanta Child Murderer). Now, the profiling done on rape and burglary cases is very impressive, since there's a remarkable amount of data to draw from.

I don't know much about the profiling in other countries, except that in England it's basically the poor man's version of U.S.A. profiling, so even more underwhelming. I'd be interested in learning more about what Van Oploo is talking about that's going on elsewhere in the world.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[smezenen]

Frank,
I have been handed an assignment that will take me out of town for a few days. I look forward to continuing the discussion upon my return. I have just a few quick points to clarify. The INTERPOL did not participate in the investigation of the Station Killer, the file we have is a copy INTERPOL obtained from the South African authorities which was then forwarded to the FBI database under one of the various information sharing agreements. But as you say it’s still possible that Twala’s mother gave differing statements to investigators, one making it into the file and the other into a book. I want it to be plain that I do not question Dr. Pistorius’ statements, methods, or results, and am only pointing out one possible discrepancy. Because it is a possible discrepancy I hesitate to use it as an example of a perfect profile. It is still one of the best I have seen. I have read a little more of her book, “Profiling Serial Killers and other crimes in South Africa” and have scanned thru a bit of “catch me a killer”. Very impressive work and a must read for anyone interested in profiling. My view of profiling is more positive but I still question its effectiveness in regards to the JTR case. I just don’t think we have enough data to draw upon to compile an accurate profile.

Corey,
Thank you for your reply, as I stated to frank I am a little busy for the next few days but I will look into the Railway rapist case as soon as possible.

[corey123]

Smezenen,

No problem. It is an interesting case. He is a serial rapists/killer. He raped close to twentie women and then killed three.

I got the case out of my book "Criminal shadows" by David Canter. He is the professor of psychology at the University of Liverpool.

I agree, we do and don't have enought to draw up a accurate profile. We have enought to do a half profile.

Thats all we will ever be able to do

[corey123]

Hi smezenen,


PS Perhaps it's better to turn to the 'Profiling' thread if we want to continue our discussion.

Frank,

I have a thread labled profiling. Its also a poll so if you want to hop over there we can.

Yours truly

[Sox]

I would like to point out that after a few hours of research tonight i have determined that the accuracy of criminal profiling is 0%.

I'm pretty certain James Brussel would disagree with you. Oh and by the way, profiles are not meant specifically to catch criminals, at all. They are used to help officers eliminate suspects, so a little more research is needed on your part I think.