Dates, the Moon and the Tides ?

[DurhamGuy67]

I've been tring to see if there was any relationship between the dates of the 5 plus Tabram and there does seem to be a tenuous relationship with the phases of the moon.

All were killed at least one week either side of a full moon. ( see http://timeanddate.com/calendar/moonphases.html)

questions...

1. Is this a total coincidence? There is only 1 in 64 chance of six killings occuring on this phase of the moon. (Ignoring the fact I was pro-actively looking for a pattern!)

2. If it is related to the moon is there a relationship with the tides? I've tried to see if it relates to particular tides and so relate to life in the docks and at sea, but so far have been unsuccessful.

3.Where these days planned or chosen because of the night being darker? This doesn't stand up to the fact that it was dawn when AC was killed. If they were planned I guess this raises other questions.

4. Does anything else relate to a 15 or 30 ish day cycle? shift working? work rotas? a servant's weekend off? PMT was already mentioned in a tongue in cheek post but its what got me thinking about the moon's cycles. ...and here IS a crazy thought...Uteri were taken! surely there can't be a conection.

[lynn cates]

probability

Hello Durham. I do not disagree with your enumeration of probabilities, but consider this.

The odds that a single murder will occur on any given day of a certain lunar phase is 1/28. Yet all murders take place on some day or other.

Permit a further analogy. Suppose that Tiger Woods is playing golf. Suppose further that he is hitting a Slazenger from a tee, on a course, with 1,000,000 blades of grass. The odds of the "z" on the ball coming to rest near any given blade of grass is 1/1,000,000. Yet it must come to rest near one or other of them.

Probability--speaking philosophically--is merely the ignorance of causation. The germane question is "Do tides/lunar phases enter into the causal chain of serial killings?" A question to be asked. The answer, of course, rests with identifying such a causal chain.

The best.
LC

[Sam Flynn]

Position of moon relative to London horizon at the times of the Canonical Five murders:

[Sam Flynn]

And here's the moon, well below the London horizon (thin green line), at the time of Tabram's death:

[DurhamGuy67]

Sam ,

Sorry I don't understand your point.

My point is the murders were at least one week away from a full moon. Is there any significance to this?

[DurhamGuy67]

Sam

I've notice that you also indicate cloud cover. The combination of this and the moons phase would produce particularly dark nights.

Was the October sky during the weekend nights clear? Were the October nights lighter?

[Sam Flynn]

Sam , Sorry I don't understand your point.

I wasn't making a point as such, DG, just showing the precise position of the moon at the (rough) time of each murder. You'll note from this that, on the two occasions when the moon was above the horizon, its phase varied from 39-41%, which would still provide a reasonable degree of illumination in those light-pollution-free days. At least, it would have when there were gaps in the clouds. Whilst the idea that Jack targeted "full-moon free" nights might seem compelling, the point becomes somewhat academic when one considers the murder and extensive mutilation of Annie Chapman at daybreak.

[DurhamGuy67]

I think its a coincidence.

The thought was was with little and poor night time lighting the significance a full moon in a city would be far more then than it is now. Full moons in the countryside have long been associated with good times for hunting and poaching.

I realised AC was killed about 30 mins after sun rise, (5.30 ish GMT) which also blows this idea.

I wonder if there is a psychological reason for the spead of the murders. Does it tie in with any other serial killers or psychological profiles?

[DurhamGuy67]

I think its a coincidence.

The thought was was with little and poor night time lighting the significance a full moon in a city would be far more then than it is now. Full moons in the countryside have long been associated with good times for hunting and poaching. The pahse of the moon also affect the severity of the tide, but again I think this is far too tenuous to be considered.

I realised AC was killed about 30 mins after sun rise, (5.30 ish GMT) which also blows this idea.

I wonder if there is a psychological reason for the spead of the murders. Does it tie in with any other serial killers or psychological profiles?

[lynn cates]

AC

Hello Durham. Regarding the time of Annie Chapman's death, you might wish to have a go at this:

http://www.casebook.org/dissertations/rn-doubt.html

The best.
LC

[DurhamGuy67]

Thanks, I think there is a very good chance the time of death was earlier

[DurhamGuy67]

Thanks I found that interesting. It is likely her death was earlier.

[Sam Flynn]

I wonder if there is a psychological reason for the spread of the murders.

I incline to the belief that we'd have seen a rather different spread if Jack had succeeded on every occasion he went out intending to kill. We can never know for certain, but I'm pretty sure that he'd have "gone a-hunting" far more frequently than is suggested by the spread of the murders.

[Archaic]

1888 Moon Phase Calendar, UK

I incline to the belief that we'd have seen a rather different spread if Jack had succeeded on every occasion he went out intending to kill. We can never know for certain, but I'm pretty sure that he'd have "gone a-hunting" far more frequently than is suggested by the spread of the murders.

Yes, I agree with you Sam.

I do think it's an interesting question, Durham.

I was curious about the 1888 moon phases too, and looked them up a while back. I was wondering if the murders were committed on either very dark & moonless nights or very close to full moons, but found that the moons for the C5 varied quite a bit.

Attached is the 1888 Moon Phase Calendar for England.

Best regards, Archaic

PS: Sorry it came out so large, I'm not very handy with this sort of thing.

[Sam Flynn]

I was curious about the 1888 moon phases too, and looked them up a while back. I was wondering if the murders were committed on either very dark & moonless nights or very close to full moons, but found that the moons for the C5 varied quite a bit.

Thanks, Bunny... To complement your chart, you'll find I posted on p1 some screen-prints from an astronomy program I use, showing the percentage phase and position of the moon at the "precise" (-ish) moments of each of the C5's deaths, as seen from the East End's latitude.