Originally posted by Errata
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Baloney Detection Kit
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“When a major serial killer case is finally solved and all the paperwork completed, police are sometimes amazed at how obvious the killer was and how they were unable to see what was right before their noses.” —Robert D. Keppel and William J. Birnes, The Psychology of Serial Killer Investigations
William Bury, Victorian Murderer
http://www.williambury.org
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Originally posted by mklhawley View Post1. How reliable is the source of the claim?
2. Does the source make similar claims?
3. Have the claims been verified by somebody else?
4. Does this fit with the way the world works?
5. Has anyone tried to disprove the claim?
6. Where does the preponderance of evidence point?
7. Is the claimant playing by the rules of science?
8. Is the claimant providing positive evidence?
9. Does the new theory account for as many phenomena as the old theory?
10. Are personal beliefs driving the claim?Originally posted by Stephen Thomas View PostSomebody knows how the world works?
When you are evaluating the claim of a "supplement" available and the GNC (General Nutrition Center, a chain of stores promoting pseudo-nutrition in the US), and it claims to "prevent illness by balancing your body's energy," or some nonsense, we do in fact know how the world works. Illnesses are caused by microscopic organisms, genetic factors, or toxins, usually; never, ever by "energy imbalance," unless that's a fancy way of saying a diabetic needs an insulin injection, and even then, something from the GNC won't help.
People who promote quack medicine don't "play by the rules of science" in one really obvious way, and it's called "moving the goalposts." We saw it in the vaccine-autism panic. First, people claimed that the measles vaccine itself caused autism, and when that was disproved, unwilling to drop the idea that vaccines are bad, they went on to say that it was the preservative in the vaccines. When the preservative was removed, they came up with yet another claim-- that children receive too many vaccines at once.
That is also an example of personal belief driving a claim: vaccines are bad. No matter how many specific mechanisms for vaccines causing harm are disproved, people simply invent another one-- each one less plausible-- because vaccines must be bad.
You see the latter in Ripper research a lot. Someone comes up with a suspect and a plausible scenario. Then someone else says, "No, he couldn't have done it, because he was known to in another place just a few hours before one of the murders." But instead of dropping the matter, the original theorist invents a really fanciful plan involving either some gallop through town on horseback that no one at the time noticed, or a really convincing stooge (who managed to keep silent about it forever) in disguise, so that the suspect was never in the other place to begin with.
#10 also is about religious beliefs, inasmuch as Shermer was dealing with them. Religious beliefs drive a lot of pseudoscience and quack medicine. I can't think of an example of religious beliefs driving a Ripper theory, but religious and other prejudices certainly drive the masonic conspiracy theories.
Oh, Patricia Cornwell. When you spend upwards of $5 million trying to prove a theory, it's hard to let go.
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