"Where did the Ripper likely live?" - Take Two

[jason_c]

They are not incorporated into my model, Mike, because contrary to the protestations of Scott Nelson, - who, incidentally, knows the identity of the author of the 'GSG' - I am relying on its relative simplicity, to afford the greatest possible degree of genuine practicality.

A very interesting consideration, however, would be the relatively outlying estimated times of the Stride and Chapman murders.

We must view the relatively early hour of the murder of Elizabeth Stride, along with the relatively late hour of the murder of Annie Chapman, as being possibly indicative of a perpetrator that resided within the immediate vicinity of the point that minimizes the distances to each of the two respective murder-sites: i.e. the 'median' of those two sites.

This would bode rather well for George Hutchinson's 'candidacy', ... particularly well for Aaron Kosminski's 'candidacy', ... and remarkably well for Nathan Kaminsky's 'candidacy'.

But, I should stop, ... here: Dead, in my tracks.

I should completely put an end to this whole thing!

After all, a purveyor of infinite wisdom - an engineer, at that - has indicated that this sort of perspective is merely "complicating things".

Excellent point and interesting question from GM. I'd far rather read a thread such as this than another 50 page thread on Hutch(no offence to those who post in such threads).

[Lechmere]

Colin
I would suggest that Robert Paul did ‘find’ Cross hovering over Polly’s body. I don’t think that is artistic licence. That is effectively what Paul told a journalist on the day of the murder.

Prior to moving to Doveton Street Cross didn’t traverse the ‘killing field’. As he would have been a short distance commuter rather than a marauder striking out from his base, your circular profile doesn’t really fit that type of culprit.
For Cross there would have to be two distributions - one based on his commuter route and the other based on his visits to his mothers (Pinchin Street Torso would be in this distribution).
Surely there is more to geographic profiling than the simple circular model?

The ‘early’ timing of Stride and then Eddowes is surely accounted for by them being Saturday night – Sunday morning. No work next day. I.e. after pub chucking out time (or Mother’s chucking out time) rather than, say killing on the way to work, for the sake of example.

[Tom_Wescott]

Hi all,

If we're talking about geographical profiling, I'd say that's virtually hopeless in a case where we can't be certain of either the first or final victim. I'm not even convinced it's very effective when all data IS known. But since Lechmere and others are discussing Colin's idea in terms with specific suspects, let me throw my hat into the ring. Let me say that I'm only doing so to present another possibility into the equation and not to 'promote' a suspect.


Charles Le Grand did not live close to Berner Street. However, on the night of the murder, according to the press reports released by the Whitechapel Vigilance Committee for whom he worked, he would have left the Crown Public house at 74 Mile End Rd somewhere between midnight and 12:30am. 40 Berner Street was only a mile away, and Schwartz spotted a man who greatly resembles the description of Le Grand (Pipeman) at approx 12:45. Le Grand's proximity to Berner Street not only in distance but in time on the night of Stride's murder is a part of what intrigues me about him as a possible culprit in the murder.

My point is that here were have a suspect who wasn't far from the first murder that night, but it has nothing to do with where he lived at all, so geographical profiling in the standard sense would fail miserably in an attempt to identify him.

And Lechmere correctly points out that a suspect with late hours who might kill within proximity to his home on work nights, as he makes his way to work, would not have such constraints when he was off work, so the time and location would throw off the whole exercise, and we should not expect to find his home in the center of some victim circle.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Barnaby]

From looking at the plots from my untrained eyes it appears to me that the point that minimizes the average distance to each murder site is chosen as the epicenter. To me, it does not follow that Jack lives here; there is a huge leap in logic to assume this. Or am I missing something. Because, I suspect if I'm a killer I'm not looking for the next victim to minimize my average travel time between my earlier victims and now.

[Lechmere]

Tom I only threw the Cross stuff in because Colin specifically mentioned him as being within the circlc. But my view on that suspect (who most people, including Casebook, don't include as a suspect!) is that if it were him, he very closely fits a georgraphic profiling model for all the killings but not one based on concentric circles, even though he does come within the bounds of teh circular model as well.

I am not sure that georgraphical profiling works well based on one victim - eg Stride based on Le Grand's possible work place. Or rather, one location that a suspect most probably went to on occasion in connection with his work (the Crown).

I threw the non work night (Saturday) aspect into the mix to illustrate that there could be two centres of gravity to explain why Stride is seemingly off to one side.

[Ben]

To me, it does not follow that Jack lives here; there is a huge leap in logic to assume this.

It wouldn't be that huge a leap, Barnaby, considering that actual data supports the contention that the offender will often be found (more often than not, according to Canter's studies) within a small circle, the radius of which is half that of the circle encompassing all his crimes. This phenomenon might be logically explained by the offender's perception of a suitable distance from his base. Once he has reached that suitable distance and committed his first murder or rape, he will then seek to retain that distance with his next crime, but obviously not in the same direction. The "circle" is the inevitable result of this system being played out with each crime.

Regards,
Ben

[Abby Normal]

All,
I wonder if the the geographic profiling in this case says more about where Jack could find his victims more readily than about where he lived? As in there were a greater concentration of prostitutes plying there trade in that area of Whitechapel than other nearby areas-so the ripper, as long as he was within a relatively short walking distance (10-15 minutes say) he was merely going to where the most fertile hunting field was.

[Tom_Wescott]

I threw the non work night (Saturday) aspect into the mix to illustrate that there could be two centres of gravity to explain why Stride is seemingly off to one side.

That's pretty much what I was saying, that the killer's choice to kill one or two victims from a starting point other than his home would render the profile useless. A geo-profile presupposes that a suspect would leave his house, kill a victim, and return home. Other aspects such as weekend habits, work, or perhaps the killer being astute enough to not always kill near his home, are not taken into consideration. I understand that it's necessary to have such a focal point, or else developing a geo-profile would be impossible. But doesn't that mean such a model would be impossible to trust?

As for David Canter, the man doesn't have a good track record at catching serial killers, and named James Maybrick the likely Ripper based on his own geo-profile. Likewise, his mentor, John Douglas, helped keep the Green River Killer free an extra 20 years and the only serial killer he can claim to have helped put behind bars is now considered by many, including the mayor of Atlanta, to be innocent of most or all of the murders. I'm referring to Wayne Williams, the convicted Atlanta Child Murderer.

I'm not saying serial killer profiling is a bad idea, because it's not. Only that it's about 100 years from being reliable.

The most impressive piece of profiling I've seen was from the guy in the Yorkshire Ripper case who listened to the tapes and was able to determine within a small radius where the speaker lived, based on his voice. That was awesome.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Abby Normal]

That's pretty much what I was saying, that the killer's choice to kill one or two victims from a starting point other than his home would render the profile useless. A geo-profile presupposes that a suspect would leave his house, kill a victim, and return home. Other aspects such as weekend habits, work, or perhaps the killer being astute enough to not always kill near his home, are not taken into consideration. I understand that it's necessary to have such a focal point, or else developing a geo-profile would be impossible. But doesn't that mean such a model would be impossible to trust?

As for David Canter, the man doesn't have a good track record at catching serial killers, and named James Maybrick the likely Ripper based on his own geo-profile. Likewise, his mentor, John Douglas, helped keep the Green River Killer free an extra 20 years and the only serial killer he can claim to have helped put behind bars is now considered by many, including the mayor of Atlanta, to be innocent of most or all of the murders. I'm referring to Wayne Williams, the convicted Atlanta Child Murderer.

I'm not saying serial killer profiling is a bad idea, because it's not. Only that it's about 100 years from being reliable.

The most impressive piece of profiling I've seen was from the guy in the Yorkshire Ripper case who listened to the tapes and was able to determine within a small radius where the speaker lived, based on his voice. That was awesome.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

The most impressive piece of profiling I've seen was from the guy in the Yorkshire Ripper case who listened to the tapes and was able to determine within a small radius where the speaker lived, based on his voice. That was awesome.

Or the psychiatrist Dr. Brussel who profiled and help catch the mad bomber. He pegged him so perfectly and to such detail that he even said he would be wearing a suit when he was caught-and he was.

[kangacaught]

All the evidence points to jtr living in Flower and Dean street.

[Pontius2000]

This is very interesting reading.


I wonder what the map and probabilities would look like if it only included the murder sites of Chapman, Eddowes, and Kelly, and the Ghoulston St site where the apron was found? These are the 3 murders where the killer took organs away from and the known site where he dropped a piece of evidence.

being seen with blood on him may or may not have raised much suspicion. but being caught with human organs in his possession would've been the nail in his coffin. so I'd have to assume that no matter what his starting point (his home, his mother's home, a pub, etc) was, his ending point after Chapman, Eddowes, Kelly and Ghoulston St would most definitely have been his residence.

for whatever reason, he didn't take organs from Stride or Nichols. He was probably interrupted with Stride, and possibly with Nichols. But I also have to consider that the inconvenience of being interrupted may also be coupled with the raised risk of being caught with human organs during a longer travel back to home base.

It probably amounts to nothing, but I would love to see if it looks much different with just the Chapman, Eddowes, Kelly, and Ghoulston St sites. and then possibly add the Tabram site in.

my opinion, I believe Tabram was the first of the series. and Chapman, Eddowes, and Kelly were the 3 where organs were taken. Stride and Nichols may have been chance encounters to/from work or someone's house but I personally believe if the geographic profiling is really worthwhile, it's also worthwhile to do it with only the murders where he apparently felt truly comfortable enough to do more extensive mutilations and actually take away organs.

[Fleetwood Mac]

The most impressive piece of profiling I've seen was from the guy in the Yorkshire Ripper case who listened to the tapes and was able to determine within a small radius where the speaker lived, based on his voice. That was awesome.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

It shouldn't be too difficult, Tom.

In Northern England, and I come from an area not too far away from Wearside Jack, accents differ from one end of a town to another.

My understanding is that the profiler was partially correct in that WJ had attended school in the Castletown area but had never lived there, and as such didn't have a Castletown accent. He was from the Ford Estate, which is around the Pennywell and Pallion areas of Sunderland.

It was obvious to anyone in the North East of England that Wearside Jack was from Sunderland. To those who live in Sunderland it was obvious that he wasn't from the East End of Sunderland. And to me, he didn't speak with a Castletown accent at all.

[K-453]

... that the killer's choice to kill one or two victims from a starting point other than his home would render the profile useless.

It is also possible he moved during the series. Especially if he was a lodging house candidate.
Different working places are possible, too.
He could have been homeless and / or unemployed for some time.
He could have had several starting points anyway - pubs for example.
To me, the pattern of the murder sites rather looks like he had 'starting lines' instead of 'starting points': the thoroughfares.

[Scott Nelson]

It is also possible he moved during the series....the pattern of the murder sites rather looks like he had 'starting lines' instead of 'starting points': the thoroughfares.

This is exactly why the detailed type of analysis undertaken by Septic Dude is so arbitrary in nature. It doesn't take into account the fourth dimension - time.

[Scott Nelson]

Sorry, the above should read Septic Blue, not "Dude"