"Where did the Ripper likely live?" - Take Two

[Colin Roberts]

For those that would actually care to stay on topic, and discuss the elusive 1888 residence of 'Jack the Ripper':

Thanks for your comments, Colin. We don’t appear to disagree on a great deal here, surprisingly, ...

You and I have had some very heated exchanges regarding the finer points of our respective arguments, Ben, but I don't believe that our perceptions of the 'bigger picture' have ever differed to any significant extent.

I certainly can’t accept that he wandered to Goulston Street “aimlessly”, ...

Well, I can certainly accept a possibility - albeit remote - that he did so.

And, a possibility is all that I was suggesting.

I don’t think the relatively closely clustered nature of the murder locations indicate that the killer was familiar with that region only.

Neither do I, Ben.

But, I would insist that we allow for the possibility - again, albeit remote - that it does.

Philip Hutchinson commutes by train, from Guildford to Whitechapel, three-or-four nights, each week, in order to conduct a guided 'Ripper' tour. In so doing, he has come to know the immediate vicinity of the 'killing field' of 'Jack the Ripper', like the back of his hand. But, he is much less familiar with its broader surroundings.

There very easily could have been dozens-upon-dozens of persons whose routines were similar to that of Philip Hutchinson, in 1888.

But, of course, the balance of probabilities would weigh very heavily against one of those persons having been 'Jack the Ripper'.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Seventy Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

70.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability of 70.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of at least 2-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 2.54 square-miles.

While I do intend to make certain revisions to my model, I am perfectly willing to go along with its current suggestion that we perceive a chance of at least 2-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' was to be found, during the latter months of 1888, residing somewhere within the color-shaded elliptical region, depicted in the above imagery.

Anyone residing within that region, in 1888, would almost certainly have had a degree of familiarity with the broader surroundings of the applicable murder-site distribution: i.e. Shoreditch, Bethnal Green, Mile End, Limehouse, Ratcliff, Shadwell, Wapping, Billingsgate, Ludgate, Newgate, St. Luke, etc.

A Spitalfields-based murderer may well have been very familiar with Limehouse, but the problem with committing a murder there was that it necessarily entailed more exposure on the streets as he made his escape, walking all the way from Limehouse to Spitalfields, with knife and innards secreted about his person. It is very likely, to my mind, that the ripper’s ability to escape undetected was due to his ability to get off the streets relatively quickly, and this necessitated a nearby bolt-hole.

A fair point!

But, I would think that had he committed a murder in Limehouse, ... his regress in the direction of Whitechapel would have outpaced any communications regarding the discovery of the body that might have travelled in the same direction.

That being the case, - presumably - he really would not have been particularly vulnerable, whilst walking in a westward direction, along Commercial Road.

But, I suppose that's easy for me to say!

I wasn't the one walking in his shoes!

Speaking of Limehouse, ...


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Ninety Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

90.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability of 90.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of as much as 9-in-10 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 7.72 square-miles.

... approximately one third of the Parish of St. Anne Limehouse, in 1888, lay within the concavity of Regent's Canal, just to the northwest of Limehouse Basin, which can be seen on the periphery of the above depicted color-shaded elliptical region.

The remaining two thirds of the parish, which constituted the area generally referred to as 'Limehouse', was situated outside the concavity of Regent's Canal, just to the northeast and east of Limehouse Basin.

As this area was also situated outside the above depicted color-shaded elliptical region, I am willing to perceive a probability of less than 10.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided as far afield as 'Limehouse' (in conjunction with the applicable proportions of standard elliptical deviation), during the latter months of 1888.

Accordingly, I would be willing to wager no more than $10.00, in hopes of winning a payout of $100.00, on the contention that the 'Whitechapel Murder' resided that far afield, whilst carrying out his reign of terror.

Likewise, I would be willing to wager at least $90.00, in hopes of winning a payout of $100.00, on the contention that the 1888 residence of 'Jack the Ripper' was not that far afield.

Please note, however, that my willingness to risk $90.00, in hopes of winning an actual profit of just $10.00, should not be misconstrued: i.e. I am not thoroughly convinced that 'Jack the Ripper' did, in fact, reside within the above depicted color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

As I have already indicated, I would be willing to risk as much as $10.00, in hopes of winning an actual profit of $90.00, on the contention that he did not. So, clearly, I see that as being a distinct possibility (i.e. that he did not reside within the above depicted color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888).

There really isn’t any evidence to suggest that the environs of Spitalfields were a Mecca for “middle-aged, estranged, alcoholic, destitute dollymops” anymore than other areas of London were. Nor is likely, as far as I’m concerned, that the killer had a specific type of victim in mind, or that he had any preference as to age.

Actually, Ben, there is evidence to suggest as much.

Admittedly, the indications are rather subtle and quite fragmented; but, on the basis of everything that I have been able to gather thus far, I am inclined to believe that the rookeries of Dorset Street and Flower & Dean Street constituted one such "Mecca", whilst the area just north of the Strand, which included the Parish Church of St. Giles in the Fields, Seven Dials, and Drury Lane, constituted another.

Consider, for example, the fact that the overwhelming majority of the victims of the so-called 'Whitechapel Murders' seem to have emanated from just about everywhere, other than Spitalfields.

The estranged and destitute of Victorian London were drawn in great proportion - so we would think - to those parts of the metropolis, in which the casual four-penny 'dosser' was afforded the best prospects for being able to obtain lodgings. I have seen many an indication that the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields - and the rookeries of Dorset Street and Flower & Dean Street, in particular - boasted the single greatest concentration of registered common lodging houses, in the whole of London's metropolis, in 1888. But, I would have to refer to John Bennett, for any applicable statistics that he may happen to have, at his disposal.



Most of us have seen this data, which was first brought to our attention, - so I believe - by AP Wolf.

I know that you and Gareth have referred to it several times, in the past.

Of course, the data was collected in 1868, as opposed to 1888; and the stated figures refer simply to 'Prostitutes': i.e. a broad category, of which the Middle-Aged, Estranged, Alcoholic, Destitute Dollymop constituted a mere sub-set. But, I believe that the tabulation is, nonetheless, ... quite relevant.

Consider, for example, the following comparison:

Number of Prostitutes (in Low Neighbourhoods) (1868)
H Division: 623
K Division: 799

Area Contained within Respective Jurisdiction (1868)
H Division: 1.08 Square Miles
K Division: 50.40 Square Miles

It should be noted that the 1868 jurisdiction of K Division ('Stepney') extended from the thoroughfare New Road / Cannon Street Road, in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel / Hamlet of Mile End Old Town / Parish of St. George in the East, ... all the way to the Parish of St. Peter & St. Paul Dagenham, in the County of Essex.

Density of Prostitutes (in Low Neighbourhoods) (1868)
H Division: 576.85 per Square-Mile
K Division: 15.85 per Square-Mile

The comparison is, by no means, flawless. But, it would suggest that there may have been a truly remarkable concentration of prostitutes in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, in both 1868, ... and 1888.

I believe that the only 'Met' Division that might have competed with 'Whitechapel', on the basis of 'Density of Prostitutes', in 1868, was F Division ('Covent Garden'), which included the area that I mentioned previously, - i.e. the area just north of the Strand, which included the Parish Church of St. Giles in the Fields, Seven Dials, and Drury Lane - as having possibly been another "Mecca", of the sort that I believe Spitalfields to have been.

As I stated earlier, Ben, the indications are rather subtle and quite fragmented; but, on the basis of everything that I have been able to gather thus far, I am inclined to believe that the 1888 rookeries of Dorset Street and Flower & Dean Street did, in fact, constitute this sort of "Mecca": i.e. an area, into which the typical middle-aged, estranged, alcoholic, destitute dollymop tended to flock, from all other quarters of the metropolis.

Now, having said that; do I have any reason to assume that 'Jack the Ripper' may have had a particular affinity for the type of vagrant wretch that was probably just as prone to beg, as she was to solicit?

No!

Indeed, I do not!

I am merely suggesting a possibility that he did.

As far as the rarity of the “commuter” offender goes, Canter made the following observation in his book “Criminal Shadows”:

“In studies we have carried out, the “commuters” have been very rare. As a consequence, we have not obtained enough examples to establish whether the distances between crimes would enable us to tell if the offender was “commuting” into the area.”

He also observed the following of the Whitechapel murderer:

“The most parsimonious assumption to make is that the scenes of his crimes were within walking distance of each other because he walked to them from where he lived”.

My inclination to believe that you would not be able to provide a source, for your quotation of David Canter, was ill founded.

Obviously, I was wrong!

My reluctance to believe that David Canter would have described the 'commuter' serial killer as being "very rare", was perhaps the result my own personal perception of the distinction between a 'commuter' and a 'marauder'.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation [Plus Contour Depiction of Extent of Two Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Yellow)] (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

I believe that a 'marauder' serial offender should be defined as one that is found to be residing within two elliptical standard deviations of the geographic mean-center of his observed crime-scenes.

Accordingly, I believe that a 'commuter' serial offender should be defined as one that is found to be residing beyond two elliptical standard deviations of the geographic mean-center of his observed crime-scenes.

This distinction is depicted in the above imagery, by the yellow elliptical contour.

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green Isopleths (i.e. Total Area within the Five Inner-Most Contours (5 White)): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 50.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 1.67
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,181.71 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 838.16 Yards
- Area: 1.00 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 50 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 49.77 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Yellow Contour (i.e. Total Area within the Six Contours (5 White; 1 Yellow)): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 57.60% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 2.00
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,415.06 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,003.67 Yards
- Area: 1.44 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 57.60 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 39.99 Percentage Points per Square-Mile


I believe that we must establish a clearly defined distinction between the two types of offender: i.e. the 'commuter', and the 'marauder'.

My geographic spatial analysis would suggest that had this particular series of murders continued ad infinitum, 89.80% would have been committed within two elliptical standard deviations of the murder-site mean-center, i.e. within the region that is defined by the yellow elliptical contour; whilst the original (currently unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest that we should perceive a probability of 57.60% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided within the same, during the latter months of 1888.

Depending upon the number of murder-sites that I was able to incorporate, in my unrevised model, my calculations would suggest that we perceive a probability of between 55.18%, and 61.58%, that an offender would be found to be residing within two elliptical standard deviations of the geographic mean-center of his observed crime-scenes.

If two elliptical standard deviations is used as the distinction between the 'commuter' and 'marauder' offender, then these same calculations would suggest that we perceive a probability of between 38.42%, and 44.82%, that a serial offender - any serial offender - would turn out to be a 'commuter'.

Even if I were to 'ease up' a bit, on my seemingly very conservative 'marauder' parameters, I would draw the line as follows:

In the general case scenario, I would perceive odds of as much as 2-to-1 in favor of a serial offender - any serial offender - turning out to be a 'marauder'.

In other words, in the general case scenario, I would perceive a 'marauder' as being perhaps twice as likely as a 'commuter'.

~~~

A case in point:

Please note the yellow dot on the periphery of the yellow elliptical contour, in the upper right-hand portion of the above imagery.

It marks the location of the late 1888 residence of Charles Lechmere, aka 'Charles Cross': 22 Doveton Street, Hamlet of Mile End Old Town.

If Charles Lechmere were 'Jack the Ripper', and he were to have used his residence as his base of operations, then he would have travelled in more-or-less the same general direction, in order to access any portion of his observed 'killing field'.

In this presumed (hypothetical) instance, Charles Lechmere would have been, in my best estimation, a 'commuter' serial killer.

In any case, it should be noted that David Canter's best estimation is based, at least in part, on empirical data; whereas mine is simply based on my own theory, regarding the likely geographic dispersion of routine human activity.

My revised model, which will be based upon the murder-site mean-center and a theoretical murder-site median-center, will see its focal point at the intersection of Thrawl Street and George Street, in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, and will possibly place the Victoria Home for Working Men within the 95th percentile of its accordant probability distribution.

Very interesting. I look forward to hearing more.

I am afraid that it may be a while, Ben, before I am actually able to present my intended revisions. But, I don't think that either of us is going anywhere, anytime soon.

[Colin Roberts]

Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation [Plus Contour Depiction of Extent of Two Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Yellow)] (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

...

Please note the yellow dot on the periphery of the yellow elliptical contour, in the upper right-hand portion of the above imagery.

It marks the location of the late 1888 residence of Charles Lechmere, aka 'Charles Cross': 22 Doveton Street, Hamlet of Mile End Old Town.

If Charles Lechmere were 'Jack the Ripper', and he were to have used his residence as his base of operations, then he would have travelled in more-or-less the same general direction, in order to access any portion of his observed 'killing field'.

In this presumed (hypothetical) instance, Charles Lechmere would have been, in my best estimation, a 'commuter' serial killer.

This has just occurred to me, Ben:

Although the focal point of my revised model, i.e. the center of its accordant probability distribution, will undergo a shift of approximately 140 yards, from the southwest corner of the intersection of Wentworth Street and Osborn Street, in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, to the center of the intersection of Thrawl Street and George Street, in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, - that being a shift to the west/northwest, more-or-less away from Charles Lechmere's late 1888 residence; the anticipated increase, in the actual size of the two-standard-elliptical-deviation contour (yellow), along with the anticipated two-to-three-degree clockwise rotation of its orientation, might just make a 'marauder' of Mr. Lechmere, assuming, of course, that he were to have been 'Jack the Ripper'.

Either way, I'm going to stick with my own personal 'rule-of-thumb', which I posited, in my previous post:

That the theoretically presumed prevalence of the 'marauder' serial offender is perhaps twice as great as that of the 'commuter' serial offender.

~~~

Speaking of Lechmere:

Pedal traversal of the entirety of the observed 'killing field' of 'Jack the Ripper' was a matter of daily routine, for perhaps hundreds of persons that, like Charles Lechmere, resided just outside the observed parameters of that 'field', in 1888.

Whilst the balance of probabilities would weigh quite heavily against any one of these persons having been 'Jack the Ripper', they do constitute a collective pool, from which I am sure we could garner perhaps dozens of worthwhile persons of interest.

Charles Lechmere, himself, would be one such person of interest that happens to be, in my opinion, particularly intriguing.

Admittedly, I do not find him to be as intriguing as George Hutchinson; but, I do find him to be particularly intriguing, nonetheless. And, whether we refer to him as having been a presumed (hypothetically speaking) 'marauder' or 'commuter'; he resided beyond the observed parameters of the 'killing field' of 'Jack the Ripper', during the so-called 'Autumn of Terror'.

[Scott Nelson]

Depending upon the number of murder-sites that I was able to incorporate, in my unrevised model, my calculations would suggest that we perceive a probability of between 55.18%, and 61.58%, that an offender would be found to be residing within two elliptical standard deviations of the geographic mean-center of his observed crime-scenes.

It's a simple question: Where did he live? As an engineer I can see you are overly complicating things.

[Colin Roberts]

[Lechmere]

The route to work of Cross took him through the northerly four sites (and you can add Mackenzie) with a cordon sanitaire of broadly similar width from his house and his work place.

As he would have been going to work I guess ‘commuter’ is the right term. The murders took place in a linear pattern along his route.

The double event occurred on his day off – Stride near his mother’s house, Eddowes when he (possibly) went looking for another in the opposite direction to home – Goulston Street being on the way back home.

So for Cross there would be two separate distributions.

Of course lots of people would have followed a similar route to work.
But only one was found hovering over a victim, gave a false name, had moved into this area a couple of months before the murders started, whose mother married three times, and whose father deserted the family when he was a tiny infant.
However there’s nothing to suggest it was him.

[Lechmere]

I’ve been pondering where to put this but here seems as good a place as any.
Has anyone seen the 1893 Annual Report of the Sanitary Condition of the Whitechapel District?

This is a list of where the lodging houses were by street:

[John Winsett]

The route to work of Cross took him through the northerly four sites (and you can add Mackenzie) with a cordon sanitaire of broadly similar width from his house and his work place.

As he would have been going to work I guess ‘commuter’ is the right term. The murders took place in a linear pattern along his route.

The double event occurred on his day off – Stride near his mother’s house, Eddowes when he (possibly) went looking for another in the opposite direction to home – Goulston Street being on the way back home.

So for Cross there would be two separate distributions.

Of course lots of people would have followed a similar route to work.
But only one was found hovering over a victim, gave a false name, had moved into this area a couple of months before the murders started, whose mother married three times, and whose father deserted the family when he was a tiny infant.
However there’s nothing to suggest it was him.

I've always wondered why Cross was never considered a suspect. Is there anything anyone knows of why he wasn't?

[Lechmere]

Too humdrum

[Tom_Wescott]

Based on what criteria area we supposed to answer this question? Just name our fave suspect's address or what? I did not follow the first thread.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Colin Roberts]

So for Cross there would be two separate distributions.

???

It is interesting to note, for example, that the self-stated 1888 residence of George Hutchinson falls within the 89th percentile of the probability distribution pertaining to the elusive 1888 residence of 'Jack the Ripper', that has been generated by my (unrevised) Geographic Profile Model; and, that the presumed 1888 residence of Aaron Kosminski, and documented 1888 residence of Charles Lechmere each respectively falls within the 79th and 40th percentiles of the same.

But, that is really all that can be said: It is interesting.

Each of these three persons of interest easily passes the geographic litmus test: Easily!

Their respective 'candidacies', therefore, must be weighed on the basis of all other merits: i.e. those merits, other than 'geographic'.

Of course lots of people would have followed a similar route to work.
But only one was found hovering over a victim, ...,

Charles Lechmere was not "found" doing anything, Lechmere.

Even in light of the distinct possibility that he did murder Mary Ann Nichols, and that his post-mortem mutilations were interrupted by Robert Paul; we cannot allow ourselves this sort of 'artistic license'.

... had moved into this area a couple of months before the murders started, ...

Charles Lechmere's 1888 relocation, from the Parish of St. George in the East, to the Hamlet of Mile End Old Town, entailed his moving from the immediate periphery of the observed 'killing field' of 'Jack the Ripper', into a broader range of that periphery.

In other words; he actually moved farther away.

I will grant you the fact that this relocation necessitated his daily traversal of the entire 'killing field', - along its major axis, directly through its center, from one end to the other, and back again - as he continued, thereafter, to work for Pickford's, in the City of London.

[The Good Michael]

Colin,

Please excuse my ignorance. I am wondering if things like climate, time of year, time of day, traffic, and era are built into this model, or how you think such things might factor into a geographic profile. Such things may have been itrrelevant in the LVP, but it seems to me that earling morning slayings could either increase the range of a killer depending in his mindset and if he did indeed want to venture further from his home for safety reason, but that early morning slayings might also allow for more opportunity to get away with murder closer to home as there would be less people about to detect such things, and of course darker environs to obfuscate activity. Perhaps such things are too complicated to include and need first to be logically calculated one at a time and therefore would be beyond the scope of this exercise.

Mike

[Colin Roberts]

I am wondering if things like climate, time of year, time of day, traffic, and era are built into this model, or how you think such things might factor into a geographic profile. Such things may have been itrrelevant in the LVP, but it seems to me that earling morning slayings could either increase the range of a killer depending in his mindset and if he did indeed want to venture further from his home for safety reason, but that early morning slayings might also allow for more opportunity to get away with murder closer to home as there would be less people about to detect such things, and of course darker environs to obfuscate activity. Perhaps such things are too complicated to include and need first to be logically calculated one at a time and therefore would be beyond the scope of this exercise.

They are not incorporated into my model, Mike, because contrary to the protestations of Scott Nelson, - who, incidentally, knows the identity of the author of the 'GSG' - I am relying on its relative simplicity, to afford the greatest possible degree of genuine practicality.

A very interesting consideration, however, would be the relatively outlying estimated times of the Stride and Chapman murders.

We must view the relatively early hour of the murder of Elizabeth Stride, along with the relatively late hour of the murder of Annie Chapman, as being possibly indicative of a perpetrator that resided within the immediate vicinity of the point that minimizes the distances to each of the two respective murder-sites: i.e. the 'median' of those two sites.

This would bode rather well for George Hutchinson's 'candidacy', ... particularly well for Aaron Kosminski's 'candidacy', ... and remarkably well for Nathan Kaminsky's 'candidacy'.

But, I should stop, ... here: Dead, in my tracks.

I should completely put an end to this whole thing!

After all, a purveyor of infinite wisdom - an engineer, at that - has indicated that this sort of perspective is merely "complicating things".

[Ben]

Thought-provoking stuff, Colin, and I'm grateful for the opportunity to scrutinise that document concerning prostitution in the various police divisions. I'd lost track of that.

Your understanding of the term "commuter", i.e. someone who resided outside of the "circle" encompassing all crime scenes, tallies precisely with that of David Canter, which is why I was struck particularly by his observation that the commuters were "very rare". In other words, if the 1888 murderer were operating from a base in Pelham Street (immediately north of Hanbury Street), he would still have been a “very rare” commuter. The distance of the “commute” is apparently irrelevant, as you note. I would have cited Brady Street as another example were it not for my suspicion that Ada Wilson of Maidman Street was attacked by the later Whitechapel murderer.

While we’re on the subject of Canter, some of his other observations are worth drawing attention to (from “Criminal Shadows” again):

“…in some samples of rapists as many as 80 per cent have actually been found to live inside the circle and over 60 per cent in a central area half the radius of the large circle”.

He also alludes to what he describes as an “optimum distance” between the offender’s base and the location of his crimes, whereby the killer or rapist travels far enough to ensure a “safe” distance away from his base, but not so far as to wander into lesser-known territory, or anywhere in which an escape would be more difficult. This may account for his failure to venture as far as Limehouse. While it would not have constituted alien territory to a Whitechapel/Spitalfields-based killer, he may have been less familiar with the actual streets – same with Shadwell, Wapping etc. His "circle" hypothesis follows the logic that the offender would retain this "optimum distance" for later crime scenes, albeit in a different direction to reduce the chances of capture.

Oddly enough, Canter would claim in a later book that Middlesex Street was ideally situated as a base for the ripper's crimes. Trouble is, on page 102 of Criminal Shadows, he erroneously places “Maybrick’s base” on a map right where the Victoria Home would have been!

Thanks again for the information regarding prostitution density in Whitechapel. I have always wondered if the prostitutes differentiated between work and rest locations. In other words, while it may be true that many prostitutes lived in “H division”, can it be assumed that they all operated there? Certainly, a prostitute would not have been required to walk far in search of a punter, but would an “outsider” need to venture into the region surrounding the northern end of Commercial Street? Possibly not. Kelly was reportedly seen around Aldgate, and Eddowes made for this area after being released from her cell; evidence, surely, that the prostitutes sought out their own “outsider” clients from viable locations rather that waiting to be descended upon?

Interesting thoughts on Lechmere. Again, if Ada Wilson was attacked by the ripper, the marauder/commuter hypothesis would be resolved for that particular POI.

All the best,
Ben

[Tom_Wescott]

Hi Colin,

I'll ask again. What kind of contributions to this thread would you like from other posters? What kind of input?

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Colin Roberts]

Thought-provoking stuff, Colin, ...

Thanks, Ben!

I'll have to excuse myself for a few hours. But, I will return as soon as I am able, and touch upon some of the points that you made.

What kind of contributions to this thread would you like from other posters? What kind of input?

Please accept my apologies, Tom, for having seemingly ignored you.

As I indicated above; I've got to step away from my PC for a few hours, and I may not be able to return until late, this evening, or early, tomorrow morning.

I will need to devote more than just a line, or two, to providing a worthwhile answer to your question.

Thank you, for expressing an interest.