Where did the Ripper likely live?

[Colin Roberts]

I don't believe that a discussion regarding whether Catherine Eddowes was a prostitute is going to provide any insight as to "Where did the Ripper likely live?".

From the thread entitled "Laura Richards knows who the ripper was":

From the initial post of the thread entitled "Where did the Ripper likely live?":

..., something I've read often is that the Ripper was likely local to Whitechapel, that his being able to escape from the crime scenes so swiftly and without being noticed or captured lends to at least a working knowledge of the streets of Whitechapel and the alleys. The fact that the crimes--the canonical five anyway, along with Tabram--happened in a rather close proximity suggests that Whitechapel was where the killer lived.

Do any of you agree that he was probably a local to Whitechapel? If so, have any of you ever proposed where he might've lived, what street?

I don't mind admitting that it is extremely disheartening to see that thread degenerating, as it has, - over the course of the most recent two-week period, and through the duration of its 112 posts - into a discussion regarding whether Catherine Eddowes was soliciting when she met her demise, without so much as a mention - from anyone - of the analysis that I have been presenting, in this thread.

Oh, well!

~~~

The first two, of the following three images, have been 'improved', so I believe, in as much as the color-intensity of each of the respective isopleths, has been progressively diminished, in conjunction with the spectral progression that dictates its hue; i.e. in conjunction with the outward progression, from red, to orange, to yellow, etc.

This 'improvement' is intended to emphasize the fact that the density of the applicable geographic-profile probability distribution, itself, progressively diminishes, in conjunction with that spectral progression.

The third, of the following three images, is a 'new release'.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

50.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 50.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of as much as 1-in-2 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 1.00 square-miles.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Seventy Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

70.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 70.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of at least 2-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 2.54 square-miles.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Ninety Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

90.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 90.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of as much as 9-in-10 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 7.72 square-miles.

¹ As we are dealing with a retrospective probability, we must refer to it as being 'perceptual', as opposed to being 'actual': The reason being that there is an actual probability of 100.00% that 'Jack of Ripper' resided wherever he did, during the latter months of 1888; as well as an actual probability of 0.00% that he resided anywhere else, during the same.

~~~

Red (i.e. Area within the Inner-Most Contour): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 10.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 0.30
- Semi-Major Axis: 214.97 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 152.48 Yards
- Area: 0.03 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 10 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 300.81 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange (i.e. Total Area within the Two Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 20.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 0.61
- Semi-Major Axis: 434.50 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 308.18 Yards
- Area: 0.14 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 20 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 147.27 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow (i.e. Total Area within the Three Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 30.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 0.94
- Semi-Major Axis: 663.79 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 470.81 Yards
- Area: 0.32 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 30 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 94.65 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green (i.e. Total Area within the Four Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 40.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 1.29
- Semi-Major Axis: 909.66 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 645.20 Yards
- Area: 0.60 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 40 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 67.20 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green (i.e. Total Area within the Five Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 50.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 1.67
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,181.71 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 838.16 Yards
- Area: 1.00 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 50 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 49.77 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green (i.e. Total Area within the Six Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 60.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 2.11
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,495.22 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,060.53 Yards
- Area: 1.61 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 60 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 37.31 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green/Aqua (i.e. Total Area within the Seven Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 70.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 2.66
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,879.80 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,333.30 Yards
- Area: 2.54 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 70 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 27.54 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green/Aqua/Blue (i.e. Total Area within the Eight Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 80.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 3.39
- Semi-Major Axis: 2,400.16 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,702.38 Yards
- Area: 4.14 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 80 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 19.30 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green/Aqua/Blue/Indigo (i.e. Total Area within the Nine Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 90.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 4.63
- Semi-Major Axis: 3,276.65 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 2,324.06 Yards
- Area: 7.72 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 90 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 11.65 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

In this instance, the blended spectral progression, from red to indigo, i.e. from 0˚ to 240˚, of the color-shaded elliptical region's hue is measured as follows:

Red, i.e. 0˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 0.00% - 10.00%

Orange, i.e. 30˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 10.00% - 20.00%

Yellow, i.e. 60˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 20.00% - 30.00%

Yellow-Green, i.e. 90˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 30.00% - 40.00%

Lime-Green, i.e. 120˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 40.00% - 50.00%

Green, i.e. 150˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 50.00% - 60.00%

Aqua, i.e. 180˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 60.00% - 70.00%

Blue, i.e. 210˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 70.00% - 80.00%

Indigo, i.e. 240˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 80.00% - 90.00%

As the spectral progression is blended, each of the ten-percentage-point intervals of distribution accumulation is defined by an elliptical white contour that facilitates the depiction of the respective interval, as a distinct isopleth.

[Monty]

Adam,

You are preaching to the converted.

A trawl through my posts over the years will find that I have said as much about Eddowes and the possibility of her prostituting. Yes, we cannot concluded with certainty however the evidence suggests she was.

Sure, there's a possibility Morris slacked, however its obvious he didn't that night, as Eddowes was murdered at that very time.

And you are assuming Lewande saw Eddowes....merely using your selective logic.

Monty

[Adam Went]

Monty:

I am simply pointing out that we shouldn't build assumptions from something which is not necessarily a fact in the first place - i.e. that Eddowes was soliciting at the time of her murder. That's how myths start, and the suggestion that she knew about the times it was safe to use the Square and so forth almost lean back towards that old theory that she had already planned a rendezvous with somebody at the square for that night, and THAT I do think is a load of rubbish. Nobody saw her or can testify to her actions between the time of her release from the cop shop and the time she was spotted by Lawende and his group. True, only half an hour or so had elapsed, but what happened in that half hour and where she went and so forth could be crucial, given it wouldn't have taken the full half hour to walk that distance.

Indeed, as i've said before, IMO one must take the statements of Lawende and his group with a generous pinch of salt, given he attitudes afterwards of Harris and, in particular, Levy.

As for Morris, working in the police force and working in a warehouse are two very different things. Have you not read the ample stories of the night watchmen and the like who worked alone in places like that of a night and would doze off at intervals or generally slacken from the duties they were supposed to be performing? If one is working alone and at no risk of being caught, why not? I'm not saying Morris was like that and indeed his life in the police force may have made him regimented, but I think it's a bit naive to think that he wasn't, on occasion at least, prone to act like a vast amount of his similar colleagues did.....

Cheers,
Adam.

[Monty]

Monty:

To be honest, I also believe that Eddowes was most likely soliciting at the time of her murder and this was how she came to be where she was with who she was, basically for the same reasons which you have already listed, but it is certainly not 100% set in stone and I think it's always very dangerous to build assumptions from something which is not necessarily a fact in the first place, which is what you were doing. One must be cautious with their approach.

Morris stated that he sometimes had to 'usher' women and men from that corner in the Square. If. and I state if, Eddowes knew of Morris's routine then she would have utilised that hour in my opinion. Once 2pm came and went she may have moved elsewhere to commit the act.

Given the condition we know that she was in earlier that evening, I don't think that she was in a position where the timetable of Morris would have been at the forefront of her mind.

Besides, there's no reason to suspect that Morris's routine went from the dot of the hour to the dot of the hour, what if he was 15 or 20 minutes early or late on certain nights?

Wherever a prostitute could or would take their clients, there was still a risk involved. IMO it just wasn't in a woman like Catherine Eddowes, in the situation she was in, to be as calculating and methodical with her times and locations as that. It was get a client, get the money, and be gone....

Sarah:

I think we can be fairly sure that Eddowes went into the corner, on whatever grounds, of her own free will, it's the rest that raises more questions than answers. I think you're quite right to question whether or not she was soliciting but the sad truth is that, whether or not they wanted to, most of those women had to be prostitutes on at least a casual basis just in order to survive.

Cheers,
Adam.

If you also believe Eddowes was prostituting herself Adam then why the diddly are you lecturing me?

Very odd.

Eddowes didnt need to be calculating, St Botolphs did that for her.

And Morris, an Ex Met man, I suspect had a fairly regimented work ethic. Which was the norm to a lot of manufactuiring premises.

Hi Sarah,

Its plausible, however stament evidence states it unlikely.

Monty

[Adam Went]

Monty:

To be honest, I also believe that Eddowes was most likely soliciting at the time of her murder and this was how she came to be where she was with who she was, basically for the same reasons which you have already listed, but it is certainly not 100% set in stone and I think it's always very dangerous to build assumptions from something which is not necessarily a fact in the first place, which is what you were doing. One must be cautious with their approach.

Morris stated that he sometimes had to 'usher' women and men from that corner in the Square. If. and I state if, Eddowes knew of Morris's routine then she would have utilised that hour in my opinion. Once 2pm came and went she may have moved elsewhere to commit the act.

Given the condition we know that she was in earlier that evening, I don't think that she was in a position where the timetable of Morris would have been at the forefront of her mind.

Besides, there's no reason to suspect that Morris's routine went from the dot of the hour to the dot of the hour, what if he was 15 or 20 minutes early or late on certain nights?

Wherever a prostitute could or would take their clients, there was still a risk involved. IMO it just wasn't in a woman like Catherine Eddowes, in the situation she was in, to be as calculating and methodical with her times and locations as that. It was get a client, get the money, and be gone....

Fleetwood:

Let's just say - and this is absolutely just as a hypothetical here, as an alternate solution, I am not advocating this point of view as fact in any way, shape or form:

Eddowes knew the man she was talking to outside the passage. They stopped for a quick chinwag and then went their seperate ways. Catherine went into Mitre Square alone and wandered over to the darkest corner of the square as all was quiet there and she needed to go to the toilet. Whilst in the square, Jack passes through, spots her and approaches her - being in the dark and in a pretty poor condition, she has not the time to react before he grabs her - or, alternatively, he approaches her IN the square on the premise of 'business'.....

Just food for thought, my point is simply that there are alternatives to the generally accepted theories.

Sarah:

I think we can be fairly sure that Eddowes went into the corner, on whatever grounds, of her own free will, it's the rest that raises more questions than answers. I think you're quite right to question whether or not she was soliciting but the sad truth is that, whether or not they wanted to, most of those women had to be prostitutes on at least a casual basis just in order to survive.

Cheers,
Adam.

[Sarah]

I've always been a bit dubious about Eddowes being a prostitute - even a casual one. I suppose I also think that perhaps if JtR did indeed kill Stride and needed another kill then I've always thought it possible that he may have just killed the first woman on her own. She'd just been released which explains the hour and why she was on her own. I know it's hard to explain her presence in that dark corner if she wasn't but it's not impossible that she was dragged. Well, anyway, that's just my view.

Sarah

[Monty]

The beat had been altered as of 9.45pm.

Monty

[Rubyretro]

[QUOTE]

Why would the club be the thing that mattered most to him, Ruby?[/QUOTE

]

That the location could have been the important thing, and would explain the extra risk taking, is just a point that stands on it's own as a viable 'possibility'.

Personally, I think that it is possible that he wanted to place the blame on a jewish person -and hence his hightailing it to a spot near where other jewish men were coming out of a different club, to commit another murder. And then choosing to drop the apron piece in a building with mainly jewish residents en-route. But that's just me.

Concerning Mitre Square : it is also just a possibility that the killer had worked at the warehouses, knew Morris and his pipe smoking habits, and had noted the Policeman's beat. It depends on whether you think that the killer was just 'lucky' not to have been caught, or used a degree of planning in advance, knowledge and craftiness to evade capture.

I don't myself think that Eddowes was a 'planned' victim -but that she was an occasional prostitute, that knew where to get business when she wanted, and also had some 'knowledge' of the spot that she chose. She presented herself to the killer on the wrong night at the wrong time. Again that is just my personal conviction.

[Fleetwood Mac]

Monty:

Well you're presuming first of all that she was soliciting at the time she was killed, which we don't know for certain.

And you're also suggesting that, presuming she was soliciting, that she made use of a square that not only could be accessed via three different paths but one which, by your own account, she could only use - or use with some degree of safety - for one hour out of every week.

Wouldn't you think that she'd be hunting out better, more discreet locations if that were the case?

Cheers,
Adam.

Adam,

It's a bit tricky to explain why she was in a dark corner of a square if not prostituion.

And, she did actually pick a discreet spot. It seems there weren't many people around. Unlike Berner Street, there's no mention of couples, people milling about buying their supper etc. Take away the murder and she would have been gone with no one any the wiser.

[Monty]

Monty:

Well you're presuming first of all that she was soliciting at the time she was killed, which we don't know for certain.

Yes, this has been established many years ago in discussions I have been involved in. I am fully aware that we cannot say with certainty Eddowes was soliciting at the time of her murder.

However, we can logically assume with some degree of comfort, that Eddowes partook in casual prostitution and did so that night.

She and Kelly had returned potless from Kent, they had to pawn his boots for a bed, she departed Kelly around 2pm and was found 6 or so hours later drunk against a shopfront. Either Eddowes was extremely industrious in those hours, industrious enough to earn her money and spend it getting drunk or someone had taken a liking to her. Which do you suspect is the most likely? Seeing (according to Kelly) that she hadnt been able to earn any legitimate money at all during the days prior to her death.

If someone did take a liking to her then I suspect it wasnt out of mere friendship. Drink costs, and there is a price one way or t'other, as we see later with Coles and Sadler.

And you're also suggesting that, presuming she was soliciting, that she made use of a square that not only could be accessed via three different paths but one which, by your own account, she could only use - or use with some degree of safety - for one hour out of every week.

Wouldn't you think that she'd be hunting out better, more discreet locations if that were the case?

Im sure there were other various locations she could have used. I do not think she use Duke Street as a pick up point because of its close proximity to Mitre Square. I assume she used that spot in Church passage because of the trade to be gained from the Imperial Club, this would also explain Levys comments. Stride, it seems, did the same outside the Berner Street Club.

Morris stated that he sometimes had to 'usher' women and men from that corner in the Square. If. and I state if, Eddowes knew of Morris's routine then she would have utilised that hour in my opinion. Once 2pm came and went she may have moved elsewhere to commit the act.

The bottom line is she was found in the darkest corner of a square and no screams or shouts were heared (indicating she went voluntarily). There were no signs of a struggle.

Therefore I suspect she didnt go there to have a cup of tea and pass the time.

Monty

[Adam Went]

Monty:

Well you're presuming first of all that she was soliciting at the time she was killed, which we don't know for certain.

And you're also suggesting that, presuming she was soliciting, that she made use of a square that not only could be accessed via three different paths but one which, by your own account, she could only use - or use with some degree of safety - for one hour out of every week.

Wouldn't you think that she'd be hunting out better, more discreet locations if that were the case?

Cheers,
Adam.

[Monty]

Its the only time in the week, between 1 and 2am, where Morris wasn't physically in the Square.

She had a window to trade.

Monty

[Adam Went]

Monty:

Who said anything about writing an article on Mitre Square? That's news to me. I am of course aware of Morris and his work in 1888 as well as his past involvement with the police force, but I simply don't recall hearing that particular statement from himself before.

What gives you the impression that Eddowes took any particular notice of Morris's work? He was, in any case, not far away....

Fleetwood:

It's a strange one, no doubt about that. But then he'd be far from the first Ripper witness to make some bizarre statements. It really could be as simple as him trying to distance himself from involvement in what occurred in Mitre Square that night, shying away from the spotlight and the inevitable uproar of why nobody could lay a hand on JTR....

The times are also subject to the accuracy of Lawende & Co, Harvey and Watkins. One or more of them could be out by a couple of minutes, but it was a tight timeline for sure, either way....

Cheers,
Adam.

[Fleetwood Mac]

Replying to myself here: then again Harvey nor Watkin report a couple at 1.30ish.

[Fleetwood Mac]

Fleetwood:

Interesting, don't think i'd heard of that comment from Morris before. Is it possible that, being a weekend night shortly after most pubs and ale houses had closed, he prefered to stay indoors whilst all the drunks, some of them violent and spoiling for a fight (again, human nature in 1888 has not changed with time) made their way homewards?

Or, alternatively, maybe he just wanted to distance himself from being anywhere near the scene of the crime, like Harris and Levy....the difference is that Morris was of course an ex-policeman.

There's no doubt that each crime scene had their own individual risks but IMO Mitre Square was actually a slightly safer option for the killer, given the multiple exits, the quietness and the darkness.....the only risk he had was two or three policemen coming in at the same time via different exits and spotting him, which ALMOST could have happened.

Cheers,
Adam.

Adam,

From memory, it's from the statement he gave at the inquest. He says something like: ''between 1-2 I stand smoking my pipe at the door, except for Saturday as my work keeps me indoors''.

Intriguingly, Watkin opened by saying something like: "I patrolled my beat from 9.45 til 1 in the morning".

Why 1? Very odd.

Being fanstatical about this: were these, plus the policeman at the other end of the square, Sgt White's two men? Except it doesn't fit because there are 3 entry points to the square and one of them isn't directly from the Whitechapel Road.

Regardless, he certainly offered his work as the explantion as to why he wasn't at the door between 1-2.

I'm intrigued as to why he positioned himself in that corner of the square. Assuming he's there at 1.30 - a decent shout considering the man and Eddowes are having a cosy chat and are there prior to Lawende arriving - then he knows Watkin comes one way and Harvey comes the other - so the St James' corner would have been the safest bet (in terms of escaping from the police). I'm not convinced that he was working to say 5 or 7 minutes because how would he know when that time was up?