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Go Back   Casebook Forums > Ripper Discussions > Suspects > Maybrick, James

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  #81  
Old 05-07-2015, 01:53 PM
GUT GUT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanda View Post
Starring Harry Enfield & Simon Pegg.......yes, can see it now

Amanda
And Sid James, what's a carry on without Sid.
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  #82  
Old 05-07-2015, 02:20 PM
pinkmoon pinkmoon is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanda View Post
Starring Harry Enfield & Simon Pegg.......yes, can see it now

Amanda
Carry on up the diary!!!!!!!
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  #83  
Old 05-08-2015, 02:34 AM
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What a great idea! But no Kenneth Williams, Joan Sims, Charles Hawtrey or Peter Butterworth? Unthinkable.

"Frying tonight!" as John Omlor tries desperately to commit the diary to the flames. More horror show than comedy.

Love,

Caz
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  #84  
Old 05-08-2015, 08:07 AM
MayBea MayBea is offline
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John Omler? Another J.O.!

What are the odds of that?

I looked it up. 0.15 to .3 %.

http://blogs.sas.com/content/iml/201...st-common.html
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  #85  
Old 05-09-2015, 11:31 AM
MayBea MayBea is offline
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The odds are therefore 300 to 1 that there was a J.O. in the Maybrick circle.

I seriously doubt someone would know about John Over and engrave a J.O. on his "Maybrick watch forgery".

Therefore it's good odds that the watch came from the Maybrick circle, even if it is a big circle.

The matching watch in the estate sale increases the odds especially, when it just says "monogrammed" which means, to me, it's not a Maybrick monogram. Otherwise it would be quite valuable, wouldn't it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by caz View Post
...another myth lives on as a result.

It is not a lady's watch. It is a gentleman's dress pocket watch.
Put that myth up with the proverbial "Victorian photo album"!

A stub book can be used for photos but it's not a "photo album".
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  #86  
Old 05-11-2015, 05:38 AM
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I seriously doubt someone would know about John Over and engrave a J.O. on his "Maybrick watch forgery".
Oh I don't think anyone has seriously suggested the J.O. engraving was commissioned by whoever made the Maybrick/Jack markings. The point is, this person was not put off by the existing J.O, and was likely to have been aware of a connection to the Maybrick household via John Over.

Quote:
Therefore it's good odds that the watch came from the Maybrick circle, even if it is a big circle.
But the bigger the circle, the more likely it would have included someone with the initials J.O. The first initial J is extremely common, while O is going to be very common among those of Irish descent (O'Connor, O'Reilly and so on), and many would have lived and worked in the Liverpool area.

Quote:
A stub book can be used for photos but it's not a "photo album".
Indeed. It's a Victorian guard book (or scrap book to a modern Brit), which can be used as a photo album or a diary, while not really being either.

Love,

Caz
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  #87  
Old 05-11-2015, 02:26 PM
MayBea MayBea is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caz View Post
But the bigger the circle, the more likely it would have included someone with the initials J.O. The first initial J is extremely common, while O is going to be very common among those of Irish descent (O'Connor, O'Reilly and so on), and many would have lived and worked in the Liverpool area.
You're right, Caz.

The odds get actually much better than 300 to 1 with even a small circle.

Using this dice formula I found:

1-(5/6)exponent#n=probability

I plugged in 1-(299/300)exponent30=.9
or 1 in 10 chance of having a J.O. among 30 people.

It's similar to the Birthday problem. The odds of two having the same birthday are 50-50 with just 23 people.
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  #88  
Old 06-03-2015, 03:15 PM
pinkmoon pinkmoon is offline
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Could J O really be a fancy 10?
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  #89  
Old 06-04-2015, 02:37 AM
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I wouldn't have thought so, pinky.

Love,

Caz
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  #90  
Old 06-04-2015, 02:38 AM
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It's worth a try my dear.xxxxxxxxxxxx
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