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Go Back   Casebook Forums > Ripper Discussions > Motive, Method and Madness

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  #51  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:11 PM
Roy Corduroy Roy Corduroy is offline
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Originally Posted by Batman View Post
Yes I was thinking about that.
Good for you. Because you see it raises an additional question. If the profile shows so clearly Tabram was a victim of the series, then why didn't Kim Rossmo's template include her murder site as one of six predictors when it was designed twelve years ago. Why did he run five. Not that it would necessarily alter the hot zone that much. But it would change it some anyway. We don't know. Colin Roberts did his Geo-Spatial analysis using six, but his thrust was different, aiming to show what was "local" and what was not so much

The hot zone as currently depicted on the geoprofile cuts right through the extra special map John Bennett produced here on Casebook showing the location of the rookeries where the victims lived at one time or another. I'll see if I can find it here in a second and share on this thread.

Roy
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  #52  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:14 PM
DJA DJA is offline
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Nobody is claiming it's a science. So it can't be a pseudo-science. It is a tool. That is all. It's no different than pinning points on a map, which is what investigators do! It adds mathematics. I'll take that over just pins of a map, thanks.

What I have shown are the sources that support the claims I made in the thread. So it wasn't a joke. This is very much written on their own publications and documentation of the HITS system.

As far as I am aware, Keppel and the system's use have been extensively published in forensic journals. Meaning peer-review.

I accept there are some papers that claim geoprofiling is useless, but there are other papers demonstrating how it worked. Examples, include Richard Chase the Sac vampire and DeSavlo the Boston Strangler work. Whereas Yorkshire Ripper won't. That's why writing it off is probably not a good idea. Use it, check it, and you might make a hit, or might not. Also, this is the very same tool used during DNA dragnets that have often got the culprit. This is very important when it comes to expenses and logistics. Why you wouldn't want to use it is beyond me.

How do you know that HITS wasn't used for other elements other than geographic profiling and how do you know how it was used in the context of the crimes? They don't specifically say geoprofiling and my reply to Trevor wasn't geoprofiling specific either but HITS specific.

Basically, if people have problems with geoprofiling and HITS, then getting published in a peer-review journal is the way forward. Show Keppel he is wrong and get yourself published is my view.

I am not going to be really using this thread to argue the merit and not of Keppel and geoprofiling. The fact it's landed where it has is significant enough for me to see it is working just fine here.
The experts you are turning to have entirely different views to yours on Albert DeSalvo.

John Douglas actually doubts he was the Boston Strangler.
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  #53  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:18 PM
Varqm Varqm is offline
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The apron placement was/is more important,most likely.But where was he headed from Goulston St..Bell Lane was the most direct route,perhaps more likely,going towards White's Row/Butler St.,etc or Crispin St./Artillery St.,etc. or further.But it could have been towards Flower & Dean St./Thrawl,etc.
Who is to searched,somebody who lived alone,with wife and/or kids,a lodging house dosser.Somebody with a previous conviction? Scant records and 1888 was between 1881-1891 census as a starter.So if he lived in those streets above he only coincidentally found a victim at the end of the month and first week of the following month.,August 31,September 8,September 30,November 8-9,this does not add up or make sense.As has been said in the forum many times he could easily have been a visitor,or lived farther/bit farther away from those streets above,but familiar enough of some streets/alleys/escape routes or lived in the district previously.Geoprofiling does not help.

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  #54  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:25 PM
DJA DJA is offline
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The Gary Ridgway reference was for HITS for Keppel who was actually on the Green River Task Force that finally arrested Ridgway. Trevor wasn't just dismissing geographic profiling but Keppel's entire career.
For once,I agree with Trevor.

What did Keppel ever actually do that led to the arrest and conviction of a killer?

Rhetorical question .... nothing!
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  #55  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:35 PM
Joshua Rogan Joshua Rogan is online now
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Originally Posted by Abby Normal View Post
both the hot zone (or should we call it the home zone)and the direction of the apron drop after eddowes murder points to Hutchinson.
Wasn't the Victoria Home closed by 1am?
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  #56  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:50 PM
J6123 J6123 is offline
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Another chap, whose name I can't remember and who might have been scottish (and still will be if I'm right), used some geoprofiling tool with the Ripper murders, and he ended up with a massive spike on Flower & Dean Street, like a 99.9% chance or something. And funnily enough, the Apron drop direction fits perfectly with that. Not saying it's right, but it's interesting. He did a presentation and it's on YouTube.

Last edited by J6123 : 10-19-2018 at 05:55 PM.
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  #57  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:55 PM
Batman Batman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roy Corduroy View Post
Good for you. Because you see it raises an additional question. If the profile shows so clearly Tabram was a victim of the series, then why didn't Kim Rossmo's template include her murder site as one of six predictors when it was designed twelve years ago. Why did he run five. Not that it would necessarily alter the hot zone that much. But it would change it some anyway. We don't know. Colin Roberts did his Geo-Spatial analysis using six, but his thrust was different, aiming to show what was "local" and what was not so much

The hot zone as currently depicted on the geoprofile cuts right through the extra special map John Bennett produced here on Casebook showing the location of the rookeries where the victims lived at one time or another. I'll see if I can find it here in a second and share on this thread.

Roy
I would like see that map.

The thing about Tabram's murder in relation to the hot zone in Rossmo's model is that Rossmo's model isn't supposed to be predicting murder locations or the residence of a victim. Neither of those is supposed to be popping up in the hot zones.

What one expects to find in a hot zone is nothing major going on. No crimes like the series. A place where the offender doesn't want to offend because it draws undue attention to themselves.

Yet the opposite happens with Rossmo against a backdrop of the Whitechapel murders. Tabram's and Nichols lodging houses appear along with pubs some victims are seen and a murder site of one Martha Tabram a stone's throw away. That's why this gets so interesting.

Also, adding Martha shouldn't throw us into a new murder scene any more than any say adding Stride after Chapman. If it could then we would be able to predict where a murderer like this will strike next (there are models BTW that try to do that, but this Rossmo one isn't one of them).

Let's say Martha was the second or third ripper victim. One would have to ask, why then is the ripper radiating out from a hot zone containing his second or third victims? It's like the person deliberate goes to the site of the crime and then selects a direction and goes that way. Could be a pub they are setting off from, but the apron piece suggests they are going back to something other than a pub... or a lodging house... at least as clients. Wouldn't they all be shut?
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  #58  
Old 10-19-2018, 05:57 PM
Batman Batman is offline
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The experts you are turning to have entirely different views to yours on Albert DeSalvo.

John Douglas actually doubts he was the Boston Strangler.
I am not turing to Douglas and haven't brought him up. I didn't bring up Keppel either. Treveor did. Probably confused him with Rossmo.

Albert DeSalvo works with geographic profiling. The hot zone is close to his home. A DNA dragnet today would have got him.

BTW, John Douglas got a few things wrong in his book The Crimes that Haunt Us. DeSalvo has been DNA matched with at least one victim. Douglas was also hired by the Ramseys so his view there is biased. Moral of that story is don't tell your wife your Christmas bonus when she is writing the Ransom note.
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  #59  
Old 10-19-2018, 06:05 PM
Batman Batman is offline
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So if he lived in those streets above he only coincidentally found a victim at the end of the month and first week of the following month.,August 31,September 8,September 30,November 8-9,this does not add up or make sense.
----
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipswich_serial_murders
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_...(serial_killer)

Criminal: Steve Wright.
Victims: 5
Span of crimes: (approx 6 weeks). 30 October–10 December 2006

Wright possibly knew all his victims. Like JtR he targetted unfortunates. In this case, street prostitutes. He had been living there a few years.
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  #60  
Old 10-19-2018, 06:12 PM
Batman Batman is offline
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For once,I agree with Trevor.

What did Keppel ever actually do that led to the arrest and conviction of a killer?

Rhetorical question .... nothing!
Keppel identified Ted Bundy as a suspect during the Lake Sammamish State Park kidnappings. He went face to face speaking to him. He didn't have any evidence against Ted and went back to talk to him a second time but Ted Bundy had been arrested after being pulled over carrying rape gear in his car but was let go because they had no more evidence against him and he fled.

That's a damn far sight better than anonymous people on the internet trying to dismiss it.

I often wonder why I don't find such criticisms in the actual peer-review journals and just in blogs? If I was so certain he was crap I would get published with a paper pointing out all these mistakes.
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