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Go Back   Casebook Forums > Ripper Discussions > Suspects > Lechmere/Cross, Charles

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  #411  
Old 11-14-2018, 01:53 PM
Abby Normal Abby Normal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Flynn View Post
That's not what you've been told at all. What you've been told is this:

There were many thousands of men living in Whitechapel, among whom there would have been scores of dodgy characters, and several of these would prove to be much stronger Ripper candidates than Cross if we knew more about them. We can be sure of this on statistical grounds alone.
Hi Sam
what would you think-

If you took 20 of your best suspects/persons of interests vs all the joe bloggs-what is your breakdown if you think you would find the ripper in either group?


for example if I were to do it I think there would be about 70% chance we would find the ripper in my top 20 vs 30% cance for all Joe Bloggs.


what would yours be?
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  #412  
Old 11-14-2018, 02:32 PM
Sam Flynn Sam Flynn is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abby Normal View Post
Hi Sam
what would you think-

If you took 20 of your best suspects/persons of interests vs all the joe bloggs-what is your breakdown if you think you would find the ripper in either group?


for example if I were to do it I think there would be about 70% chance we would find the ripper in my top 20 vs 30% cance for all Joe Bloggs.


what would yours be?
Quite the opposite. I'd say that we'd have a 99% chance of the Ripper being in the "Joe Bloggs" group as opposed to 1% in the Top 20.

Given that the Joe Bloggs group outnumbers the Top 20 named suspects to the order of a thousand to one, I've actually been quite generous in giving the latter group a one in hundred chance.
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  #413  
Old 11-14-2018, 02:39 PM
Abby Normal Abby Normal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Flynn View Post
Quite the opposite. I'd say that we'd have a 99% chance of the Ripper being in the "Joe Bloggs" group as opposed to 1% in the Top 20.

Given that the Joe Bloggs group outnumbers the Top 20 named suspects to the order of a thousand to one, I've actually been quite generous in giving the latter group a one in hundred chance.
Hi Sam
wow that really is a disparity-I wasn't expecting that much even from you!LOL

I mean the suspects/persons of interest are that because of a reason-they weren't just randomly snatched out of thin air!

I guess the way I look at it is that so many SKs are on police radar earlier on-- who are caught later, much later, due to modern things like DNA, cell phone and video evidence, that if we didn't have would go scott free.


things they didn't have back then, which leads me to believe that the ripper was probably on there radar at some point.they just didn't have enough info to catch.
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"Is all that we see or seem
but a dream within a dream?"

-Edgar Allan Poe


"...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

-Frederick G. Abberline
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  #414  
Old 11-14-2018, 03:11 PM
etenguy etenguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abby Normal View Post
Hi Sam
wow that really is a disparity-I wasn't expecting that much even from you!LOL

I mean the suspects/persons of interest are that because of a reason-they weren't just randomly snatched out of thin air!

I guess the way I look at it is that so many SKs are on police radar earlier on-- who are caught later, much later, due to modern things like DNA, cell phone and video evidence, that if we didn't have would go scott free.


things they didn't have back then, which leads me to believe that the ripper was probably on there radar at some point.they just didn't have enough info to catch.
You make an interesting point, and Peter Sutcliffe comes immediately to mind. I'm not sure if this applies in this particular case, but it well could. Although it may well be the murderer was interviewed but never made the suspect list, cf Peter Sutcliffe who was classified 'not connected' after his first interview about the murders.
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  #415  
Old 11-14-2018, 03:45 PM
Sam Flynn Sam Flynn is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abby Normal View Post
Hi Sam
wow that really is a disparity-I wasn't expecting that much even from you!LOL

I mean the suspects/persons of interest are that because of a reason-they weren't just randomly snatched out of thin air!
There's a bit of randomness involved, in that some of the current named Top 20 suspects were "lucky" enough to get their names down on paper. For example, just imagine how ripperology would have turned out if Macnaghten had selected three different "likely candidate" Rippers out of the police files, instead of the ones he did.

If we knew sufficient about its constituent members, at least as much as we know about the currently-named suspects, I'd say that we'd easily get a more compelling Top 20 out of the Joe Bloggs group.
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  #416  
Old 11-14-2018, 04:52 PM
harry harry is offline
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I use the name Cross,because that was the name given,was the name published and understood,and the name given and accepted under oath in a court of law,in 1888.

What is unusual about that? Much as I use the name Bucks Row,even though I coulld use it's present name.We do not know the reason Cross preferred it,and it is useless to speculate why.One thing I do know however,is that there is no evidence it was to hide that persons involvement in murder,or cause present day theorists to label it a lie.
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  #417  
Old 11-14-2018, 05:14 PM
MrBarnett MrBarnett is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harry View Post
I use the name Cross,because that was the name given,was the name published and understood,and the name given and accepted under oath in a court of law,in 1888.

What is unusual about that? Much as I use the name Bucks Row,even though I coulld use it's present name.We do not know the reason Cross preferred it,and it is useless to speculate why.One thing I do know however,is that there is no evidence it was to hide that persons involvement in murder,or cause present day theorists to label it a lie.
He used it once (possibly twice) compared to 100+ times using Lechmere across the five decades of his adult life spanning the single event of appearing as a witness at an inquest. The man obviously thought of himself as Charles Lechmere. If Buck’s Row had been officially so called between 1849 and 1920, but had been called Black’s Alley in relation to a single event in 1888, would you insist on calling it Black’s Alley?
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  #418  
Old 11-14-2018, 05:31 PM
MrBarnett MrBarnett is offline
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If we had even one example of him using the name Cross on a census, on a BMD cert, an electoral register, a school register etc etc, then his use of that name alone at Nichols’ inquest, and possibly at another where he ran over and killed a small child, might not seem odd. As it is it’s bloody odd, and if one time in 100+ isn’t ‘unusual’, then I don’t know what is.
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  #419  
Old 11-14-2018, 05:41 PM
harry harry is offline
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No one today can claim he(Cross)only used that name on that one instance,and no one today can be expected to prove on what other occassions it was used,but one thing is for certain,he used it and was lawfully entitled to use it, if only that one time,and it does not prove he was a murderer or a liar in doing so.That is the important consideration.

If Bucks Row had been called anything other than Bucks Row,everyone,I presume would have been reffering to it by that other name,so what's the point MrBarnett?
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  #420  
Old 11-14-2018, 05:52 PM
Batman Batman is offline
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It seems those that argue that he used Cross before in other situations, and is not dubious, is because he gave his first name as Charles. If he was going to hide his name, then why not actually hide his full name?
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