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Go Back   Casebook Forums > Ripper Discussions > Motive, Method and Madness

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  #11  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:27 AM
Batman Batman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rjpalmer View Post
You're joking, right?
No I am not.

Read the end of this leaflet.
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  #12  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Abby Normal View Post
whats the hot zone supposed to represent? where the ripper lived?
In all geoprofile models it is the base from within which he radiates out from. In the commuter model, it is his point of arrival and he radiates out from there. In the Marauder model it is often a home. The model leans towards Marauder especially in light of Eddowes Apron.

Geoprofiles don't generally find a murder in the hot zone at all. It is usually quite empty and nothing suspicious going on.

This is not the case for the JtR geoprofile. Here we have a murder. Tabram. If something like was discovered with a modern serial offender unaware of geoprofiling it would probably be the most significant find of the case next to hard evidence.
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Last edited by Batman : 10-19-2018 at 09:32 AM.
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  #13  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:37 AM
Sam Flynn Sam Flynn is online now
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Tabram's murder has significant differences compared to the Ripper murders. The fact that she was killed nearby (as Emma Smith was fatally wounded nearby) is more a reflection of how dangerous that tiny and densely-populated part of the East End was, than of any connection between Tabram's killer and the killer of Nichols, Chapman et al.
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  #14  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Sam Flynn View Post
Tabram's murder has significant differences compared to the Ripper murders. The fact that she was killed nearby (as Emma Smith was fatally wounded nearby) is more a reflection of how dangerous that tiny and densely-populated part of the East End was, than of any connection between Tabram's killer and the killer of Nichols, Chapman et al.
Sorry, Sam but the geoprofile just happening to land on Tabram is not a coincidence. Geoprofiles don't land near murder sites or where the victims are staying.

They land on areas where nothing is happening at all.

The fact it has landed near a homicide and near places where victim's were staying is a major clue.

Today if this happened you can be sure the investigation would be pouring resources into why there is a homicide in the hot zone. The first murder is the one that can tell us a lot about the offender and is often someone they knew.

I won't be entertaining coincidence on this one. Sorry, but the above is overwhelmingly indicating this is significant. To dismiss it would be a grave error. If it was dismissed in a modern setting by investigators, they should all be given different cases to work on least the public or media find out about that boo-boo.
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Last edited by Batman : 10-19-2018 at 09:51 AM.
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  #15  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:57 AM
rjpalmer rjpalmer is offline
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Originally Posted by Batman View Post
Yes, I've read the claims in the flyer.

Now show me how geographical profiling helped in the case of Robert Pickton or in the DC Sniper case as you quote.

Profilers and their advocates have a very bad habit of claiming success in cases where they had no bearing whatsoever on the outcome. That's what makes it smell so heavily of pseudo-science.

Seriously. I gave you the facts. Show me how a profile would have 'worked' in the DC sniper case. Malvo and Muhhamad were from a city 3,000 miles away and were entirely mobile. Picton lived 20 miles away, yet all his victims were picked up in a four-block area in downtown Vancouver. The police didn't even believe the cases were related and the murders were uncovered during a routine weapons search.
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  #16  
Old 10-19-2018, 10:00 AM
Fisherman Fisherman is offline
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From one fish to the rest of the school: Don´t bite.
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  #17  
Old 10-19-2018, 10:04 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman View Post
From one fish to the rest of the school: Don´t bite.
no intention of, but interesting to see the various takes on the subject

Steve
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  #18  
Old 10-19-2018, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman View Post
From one fish to the rest of the school: Don´t bite.
From one Bat to a Fish, pinning JtR on a witness is probably the single most common thing new readers to cold-case crimes do. It's not too different from claiming the culprit is Colonel Mustard with the Candlestick in the Library. The same line of thinking that says the "butler did it".

Good luck with it, but,
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Last edited by Batman : 10-19-2018 at 10:33 AM.
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  #19  
Old 10-19-2018, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rjpalmer View Post
Yes, I've read the claims in the flyer.

Now show me how geographical profiling helped in the case of Robert Pickton or in the DC Sniper case as you quote.

Profilers and their advocates have a very bad habit of claiming success in cases where they had no bearing whatsoever on the outcome. That's what makes it smell so heavily of pseudo-science.

Seriously. I gave you the facts. Show me how a profile would have 'worked' in the DC sniper case. Malvo and Muhhamad were from a city 3,000 miles away and were entirely mobile. Picton lived 20 miles away, yet all his victims were picked up in a four-block area in downtown Vancouver. The police didn't even believe the cases were related and the murders were uncovered during a routine weapons search.
Nobody is claiming it's a science. So it can't be a pseudo-science. It is a tool. That is all. It's no different than pinning points on a map, which is what investigators do! It adds mathematics. I'll take that over just pins of a map, thanks.

What I have shown are the sources that support the claims I made in the thread. So it wasn't a joke. This is very much written on their own publications and documentation of the HITS system.

As far as I am aware, Keppel and the system's use have been extensively published in forensic journals. Meaning peer-review.

I accept there are some papers that claim geoprofiling is useless, but there are other papers demonstrating how it worked. Examples, include Richard Chase the Sac vampire and DeSavlo the Boston Strangler work. Whereas Yorkshire Ripper won't. That's why writing it off is probably not a good idea. Use it, check it, and you might make a hit, or might not. Also, this is the very same tool used during DNA dragnets that have often got the culprit. This is very important when it comes to expenses and logistics. Why you wouldn't want to use it is beyond me.

How do you know that HITS wasn't used for other elements other than geographic profiling and how do you know how it was used in the context of the crimes? They don't specifically say geoprofiling and my reply to Trevor wasn't geoprofiling specific either but HITS specific.

Basically, if people have problems with geoprofiling and HITS, then getting published in a peer-review journal is the way forward. Show Keppel he is wrong and get yourself published is my view.

I am not going to be really using this thread to argue the merit and not of Keppel and geoprofiling. The fact it's landed where it has is significant enough for me to see it is working just fine here.
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  #20  
Old 10-19-2018, 11:41 AM
rjpalmer rjpalmer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batman View Post
What I have shown are the sources that support the claims I made in the thread. So it wasn't a joke.
Hi Batman. I don't want to come across as though I am needling you, but that's just it. The source you quoted is making false statements.

I lived in the Pacific Northwest at the time of the Pickton murders and at the time of the investigation into Malvo and Muhammad. Geographical profiling had no bearing whatsoever in detecting those criminals. And in both cases the murderers were living a great distance from the scene of the crimes (or, in the latter case, had no home base whatsoever).

Yet these cases are now being heralded as success stories?

Clearly, undeniably, that is utterly misleading. Why doesn't it bother you?

But, whatever. Carry on.
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