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  #1  
Old 10-19-2018, 07:02 AM
Batman Batman is offline
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Default Geoprofile of Jack the Ripper reveals Tabram and Nichols connection.

I decided to map a modern geoprofile of JtR onto an old map of Whitechapel with markers for important events including the Canonical Five.

THE MAP
Modern Jack the Ripper Geoprofile old Whitechapel map here.

JtR could not have anticipated geoprofiling which was discovered in the 1990s, a century later.

The geoprofile is a simple mathematical model that makes two assumptions.

• That the perp will not commit crimes where they live.
• That the perp will not travel more than they need to find a target.

In order to cover their identity, serial offenders will try to hit in many directions away from their ‘base’. They accidentally reveal their ‘base’ because it is possible to triangulate this place. This is not too different from when policemen put pins on a map. It just has added mathematics.

This is a lead in the JtR case. One of the few we have.

The Hot Zone
The reason why it is so interesting is that the geoprofile reveals a hot zone which is of huge interest to researchers even before geoprofiling was done. In fact the hot zone is bang on top of well known JtR related events and places.

The area of the hot zone in the geoprofile is where Flower & Dean meets Lolesworth street. It also takes in Thrawl St. and a bit of Heneage St which means a bit of Brick Lane.

Close up of hot zone map here.

The Hot Zone Content in Relation to the Case
In the hotzone are the markers A, B, b and I on the old map of Whitechapel under the modern geoprofile.

These correspond to:

  • A – Satchell’s lodging House, last addr. Of Martha Tabram.
  • B – Willmott’s lodging House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
  • b – White House, Public House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
  • I – Frying pan, Public House


Martha Tabram is a JtR victim
Martha Tabram was murdered just below this area in George’s Yard. There is no point anymore in considering this all a big coincidence or that Tabram isn’t a JtR victim. This tells us that the C5 should be a C6 and Tabram included.

Other connections
Flower & Dean st., was also where Eddowes was supposed to be returning the night she died according to her partner Kelly. Note that Fashion St., where she gave a ‘fake’ address is slightly within the red hot zone and certainly within the green. Not far away to the top left of the area we have the murder of Mary Jane Kelly on Dorset St.

Murder series in relation to the hot zone
  • JtR “started” murdering close to where he was with Tabram.
  • JtR “finished” murdering close to where he was with Kelly.

To draw attention away from the hot zone with the murder of Tabram, JtR murdered his other victims in all directions north, south, east and west of the hot zone.

It can not be excluded that JtR met many of his victims in the hot zone.

It can not be excluded that JtR may have taken many of his victims from this area.

Even Catherine Eddowes had time to go back to Flower & Dean to get thrown out and be back in time for Mitre Sq.

We must also consider that the movement of these unfortunates may not correspond to looking for money in return for sex, but the promise of lodgings. A place to stay the night. JtR may very well have been a lodger out on the street with them or someone running lodgings and taking them elsewhere.

Focus
Pubs and Lodging houses in the hot zone, Tabram and Nichols connection with a focus on Tabram appears to be the path to revealing the identity of JtR.

What else is associated with this hot zone?
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  #2  
Old 10-19-2018, 07:43 AM
Trevor Marriott Trevor Marriott is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batman View Post
I decided to map a modern geoprofile of JtR onto an old map of Whitechapel with markers for important events including the Canonical Five.

THE MAP
Modern Jack the Ripper Geoprofile old Whitechapel map here.

JtR could not have anticipated geoprofiling which was discovered in the 1990s, a century later.

The geoprofile is a simple mathematical model that makes two assumptions.

• That the perp will not commit crimes where they live.
• That the perp will not travel more than they need to find a target.

In order to cover their identity, serial offenders will try to hit in many directions away from their ‘base’. They accidentally reveal their ‘base’ because it is possible to triangulate this place. This is not too different from when policemen put pins on a map. It just has added mathematics.

This is a lead in the JtR case. One of the few we have.

The Hot Zone
The reason why it is so interesting is that the geoprofile reveals a hot zone which is of huge interest to researchers even before geoprofiling was done. In fact the hot zone is bang on top of well known JtR related events and places.

The area of the hot zone in the geoprofile is where Flower & Dean meets Lolesworth street. It also takes in Thrawl St. and a bit of Heneage St which means a bit of Brick Lane.

Close up of hot zone map here.

The Hot Zone Content in Relation to the Case
In the hotzone are the markers A, B, b and I on the old map of Whitechapel under the modern geoprofile.

These correspond to:

  • A – Satchell’s lodging House, last addr. Of Martha Tabram.
  • B – Willmott’s lodging House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
  • b – White House, Public House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
  • I – Frying pan, Public House


Martha Tabram is a JtR victim
Martha Tabram was murdered just below this area in George’s Yard. There is no point anymore in considering this all a big coincidence or that Tabram isn’t a JtR victim. This tells us that the C5 should be a C6 and Tabram included.

Other connections
Flower & Dean st., was also where Eddowes was supposed to be returning the night she died according to her partner Kelly. Note that Fashion St., where she gave a ‘fake’ address is slightly within the red hot zone and certainly within the green. Not far away to the top left of the area we have the murder of Mary Jane Kelly on Dorset St.

Murder series in relation to the hot zone
  • JtR “started” murdering close to where he was with Tabram.
  • JtR “finished” murdering close to where he was with Kelly.

To draw attention away from the hot zone with the murder of Tabram, JtR murdered his other victims in all directions north, south, east and west of the hot zone.

It can not be excluded that JtR met many of his victims in the hot zone.

It can not be excluded that JtR may have taken many of his victims from this area.

Even Catherine Eddowes had time to go back to Flower & Dean to get thrown out and be back in time for Mitre Sq.

We must also consider that the movement of these unfortunates may not correspond to looking for money in return for sex, but the promise of lodgings. A place to stay the night. JtR may very well have been a lodger out on the street with them or someone running lodgings and taking them elsewhere.

Focus
Pubs and Lodging houses in the hot zone, Tabram and Nichols connection with a focus on Tabram appears to be the path to revealing the identity of JtR.

What else is associated with this hot zone?
Geo-profiling is as much use as a parachute in a hurricane. Much like criminal profilers who over the year resarchers have sought to put their faith in. I.e Keppel

What if the killer did not reside in Whitechapel, but simply came into the area to kill and then left straight afterwards undetected? If you look at the locations of the murder sites they are all but a stones throw away from major thoroughfares making it easy for the killer to make his escape, and he would not necessarily have to know the area as he would not have to venture to far off the main thoroughfares to find his victims

www.trevormarriott.co.uk
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  #3  
Old 10-19-2018, 08:01 AM
Batman Batman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trevor Marriott View Post
Geo-profiling is as much use as a parachute in a hurricane. Much like criminal profilers who over the year resarchers have sought to put their faith in. I.e Keppel

What if the killer did not reside in Whitechapel, but simply came into the area to kill and then left straight afterwards undetected? If you look at the locations of the murder sites they are all but a stones throw away from major thoroughfares making it easy for the killer to make his escape, and he would not necessarily have to know the area as he would not have to venture to far off the main thoroughfares to find his victims

www.trevormarriott.co.uk
Keppel developed the HITS (Homicide Investigation Tracking System) for the Office of Attorney General.

Keppel's system helped detect and put the following away.

• Spokane serial murder case, Robert Yates
• Vancouver BC serial murderer, Robert Pickton
• Green River murderer Gary Ridgway
• DC snipers Lee Malvo and John Muhammad

and is working on stuff like ...

• Murder of Asst. US Attorney Thomas Wales

In short, Keppel has actually has found and put away serial killers as opposed to those who have found none at all.

What Trevor is trying to describe is called the Commuter model as opposed to the Marauder model. A commuter model will have a base (point of arrival) and will attack in very short distances from the base. They don't have to go out very far because it isn't their home area. They also don't care about how they look because they believe no one will identify them. The Marauder model strikes further away from the hot zone so as not to identify where they live. They care about being seen. The case for the commuter model are Tabram, Kelly and possibly Chapman. The case for the Marauder model are Nichols, Stride and Eddowes.

Eddowes bloody apron piece suggests that JtR was returning to the hot zone. It is point 7 with a red dot on the bigger map. If you draw a straight line from mitre square, point 5 on the map, through the apron piece, the line runs very close to the hot zone.

So if JtR was a commuter he was heading back to the hot zone, as opposed to out of town again. Meaning he would be staying somewhere there until leaving again.

The bloody apron and distances for Nichols, Stride and Eddowes tells us this is likely the Marauder model and less likely to be a commuter model.

I have uploaded a map of a straight white line from Mitre Square through the Apron piece location and beyond. You can see it is almost parallel to the hot zone and very close to it. Here is the map.
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Last edited by Batman : 10-19-2018 at 08:12 AM.
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  #4  
Old 10-19-2018, 08:05 AM
Sam Flynn Sam Flynn is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batman View Post
Martha Tabram was murdered just below this area in George’s Yard. There is no point anymore in considering this all a big coincidence or that Tabram isn’t a JtR victim. This tells us that the C5 should be a C6 and Tabram included.
What? If George Yard was slap-bang in the middle of the heatmap it wouldn't alter the fact that Tabram was stabbed 39 times, with most of the blows landing on the upper half of her body. Totally unlike any other Ripper murder - indeed, she wasn't ripped, and didn't sustain so much as a cut throat.

Just as close to that particular area was the site where Emma Smith was assaulted; do we say that she should be part of a "C7" on the basis of proximity alone? Or do we look at what actually happened to her? I say the latter, for both Tabram and Smith.

That said, and unlike Trevor, I tend to agree that geoprofiling might give a reasonable indication of the approximate area in which the killer lived, but that doesn't mean that every nearby murder can be attributed to him.
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  #5  
Old 10-19-2018, 08:07 AM
Sam Flynn Sam Flynn is offline
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Originally Posted by Batman View Post
Eddowes bloody apron piece suggests that JtR was returning to the hot zone.
Correct. Another indicator that the killer may have lived somewhere in or near the zone in question.
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  #6  
Old 10-19-2018, 08:20 AM
Batman Batman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Flynn View Post
What? If George Yard was slap-bang in the middle of the heatmap it wouldn't alter the fact that Tabram was stabbed 39 times, with most of the blows landing on the upper half of her body. Totally unlike any other Ripper murder - indeed, she wasn't ripped, and didn't sustain so much as a cut throat.

Just as close to that particular area was the site where Emma Smith was assaulted; do we say that she should be part of a "C7" on the basis of proximity alone? Or do we look at what actually happened to her? I say the latter, for both Tabram and Smith.

That said, and unlike Trevor, I tend to agree that geoprofiling might give a reasonable indication of the approximate area in which the killer lived, but that doesn't mean that every nearby murder can be attributed to him.
The idea these are all coincidences, especially Tabram, is no longer tenable. The argument that she was stabbed/cut differently doesn't outweigh the connections to her and the area. This can obviously be attributed to experimentation by JtR, whose list of homicides clearly indicates an evolving pattern of escalation.

Furthermore, the murder of Tabram explains the radial murders around the hot zone away from Tabram. They are going outwards away from Tabram for a reason. That reason is that Tabram somehow could be linked back to him. Which just happens to fall in line with how the earliest murders can sometimes tell us the most about the serial offender.
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  #7  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:14 AM
rjpalmer rjpalmer is offline
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Originally Posted by Batman View Post
Keppel's system helped detect and put the following away.

• Spokane serial murder case, Robert Yates
• Vancouver BC serial murderer, Robert Pickton
• Green River murderer Gary Ridgway
• DC snipers Lee Malvo and John Muhammad
You're joking, right? I don't wish to dampen your efforts, but for the sake of reality:

At the time of the DC sniper case, profiler after profiler appeared on cable news, spouting all the usual hype, stating the killer would be a local white guy driving a white van who must have had an intimate knowledge of the DC Beltway area...probably a local delivery driver.


In reality, the actual killers (plural) turned out to be two black dudes, recently from TACOMA WASHINGTON (that's the other side of the continent). They were entirely mobile, living out of their blue sedan and were captured due to a tip from Robert Holmes (of Tacoma) who had seen Muhammad and Malvo back in Washington State, practicing shooting their bushmaster with a silencer and saying how easy it would be to launch an urban attack. This set the police looking for Muhammad, and his car was eventually spotted while the two men were sleeping in a rest area off a freeway exit in Maryland by a guy named Whitney Donohue. He tipped the police, who checked it out, and secured the arrest. Case closed.

Holmes and Donohue shared the $500,000 reward for the capture of Muhammad and Malvo.

"Geographical Profiling" had no bearing on the outcome of the case, and would have been utterly worthless considering the two supsects were from the other side of the country and entirely mobile.

Why do you state that Keppel and his methods solved this case? In truth, I would think the DC sniper case is one of the better examples of why Geographical profiling might, in the end, be utterly worthless if the suspects were from outside the area.

Similarly, in the case of Pickton, the pig farmer from Vancouver, BC., he picked up all his prostitute victims in the same tiny redlight district in downtown Vancouver, but lived some 20 miles away. Please show me how a geographical profile would have proved useful in the case.

Pickton was arrested when a rookie 'mountie' searched his pig farm during a weapons violation charge; she discovered some items belonging to a missing woman. Years earlier, Pickton had been arrested for abducting and brutalizing a "sex worker" who had escaped from his farm, but, unbelievably, the government didn't prosecute him.

At the time Kim Rossomo (not Keppel) was working in Vancouver. He had earlier pushed for the idea that this spate of missing women from downtown Vancouver might be the work of a serial killer. He was ignored by his fellow officers, and no "geographical profile," to my knowledge, was ever written-up, and could hardly have been useful in pointing to a pig farm some 20 miles distance from the neighborhood from where the women were abducted.

If anything, these two cases show the possibility of a killer living miles away. To state that these cases were solved by geographical profiling is entirely unwarranted.

Last edited by rjpalmer : 10-19-2018 at 09:22 AM. Reason: schpelling
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  #8  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:17 AM
Scott Nelson Scott Nelson is offline
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Originally Posted by Batman View Post
Furthermore, the murder of Tabram explains the radial murders around the hot zone away from Tabram. They are going outwards away from Tabram for a reason. That reason is that Tabram somehow could be linked back to him.
Yes, possibly. Nice maps by the way.

One should also consider the possibility that the Ripper was so psychotic that he didn't follow any particular pattern, or exercise considerable caution. He may have just been extremely lucky. So his mindset may have been the same for say, two of the victims, but not the third. Or dissimilar for all.
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  #9  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:23 AM
Simon Wood Simon Wood is offline
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Hi Batman,

I have a copy of the 2005 Keppel paper.

It's interesting how this subject feeds upon itself, how these academics cite known Ripper authors and generally try to retro-fit modern criminological techniques and psychological thinking onto a [then] 117-year-old series of murders.

What does this learned paper tell us in the end?

Jack did it.

Who'da guessed?

Regards,

Simon
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  #10  
Old 10-19-2018, 09:24 AM
Abby Normal Abby Normal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batman View Post
I decided to map a modern geoprofile of JtR onto an old map of Whitechapel with markers for important events including the Canonical Five.

THE MAP
Modern Jack the Ripper Geoprofile old Whitechapel map here.

JtR could not have anticipated geoprofiling which was discovered in the 1990s, a century later.

The geoprofile is a simple mathematical model that makes two assumptions.

• That the perp will not commit crimes where they live.
• That the perp will not travel more than they need to find a target.

In order to cover their identity, serial offenders will try to hit in many directions away from their ‘base’. They accidentally reveal their ‘base’ because it is possible to triangulate this place. This is not too different from when policemen put pins on a map. It just has added mathematics.

This is a lead in the JtR case. One of the few we have.

The Hot Zone
The reason why it is so interesting is that the geoprofile reveals a hot zone which is of huge interest to researchers even before geoprofiling was done. In fact the hot zone is bang on top of well known JtR related events and places.

The area of the hot zone in the geoprofile is where Flower & Dean meets Lolesworth street. It also takes in Thrawl St. and a bit of Heneage St which means a bit of Brick Lane.

Close up of hot zone map here.

The Hot Zone Content in Relation to the Case
In the hotzone are the markers A, B, b and I on the old map of Whitechapel under the modern geoprofile.

These correspond to:

  • A – Satchell’s lodging House, last addr. Of Martha Tabram.
  • B – Willmott’s lodging House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
  • b – White House, Public House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
  • I – Frying pan, Public House


Martha Tabram is a JtR victim
Martha Tabram was murdered just below this area in George’s Yard. There is no point anymore in considering this all a big coincidence or that Tabram isn’t a JtR victim. This tells us that the C5 should be a C6 and Tabram included.

Other connections
Flower & Dean st., was also where Eddowes was supposed to be returning the night she died according to her partner Kelly. Note that Fashion St., where she gave a ‘fake’ address is slightly within the red hot zone and certainly within the green. Not far away to the top left of the area we have the murder of Mary Jane Kelly on Dorset St.

Murder series in relation to the hot zone
  • JtR “started” murdering close to where he was with Tabram.
  • JtR “finished” murdering close to where he was with Kelly.

To draw attention away from the hot zone with the murder of Tabram, JtR murdered his other victims in all directions north, south, east and west of the hot zone.

It can not be excluded that JtR met many of his victims in the hot zone.

It can not be excluded that JtR may have taken many of his victims from this area.

Even Catherine Eddowes had time to go back to Flower & Dean to get thrown out and be back in time for Mitre Sq.

We must also consider that the movement of these unfortunates may not correspond to looking for money in return for sex, but the promise of lodgings. A place to stay the night. JtR may very well have been a lodger out on the street with them or someone running lodgings and taking them elsewhere.

Focus
Pubs and Lodging houses in the hot zone, Tabram and Nichols connection with a focus on Tabram appears to be the path to revealing the identity of JtR.

What else is associated with this hot zone?
whats the hot zone supposed to represent? where the ripper lived?
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but a dream within a dream?"

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"...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

-Frederick G. Abberline
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