Expert "Discrepancies"

[Adam Went]

Thanks for posting up all of those stats, Phil, very interesting stuff.

Tom, the average life span NOW isn't even that high, what did you expect it to be in the Victorian era when medical treatments were limited and diseases and wretched conditions of living were rife? For a woman of Annie's standing to live to the age of 47 should almost be considered an achievement in itself.

I don't know how many hundreds, if not thousands of stories i've read of families where members of the family died prematurely, where the parents died and the children were forced to fend for themselves, where old people, the only surviving members of their family, were taken in as charity by kind friends and neighbours, and so on. When I was researching the Princess Alice article, there were only FOUR passengers aged 70 or over on board that boat, out of well over SIX HUNDRED on board.

Honestly, Tom, if you think the average life span was particularly high in the time Jack was around, it's back to the drawing board for you my friend.....

Cheers,
Adam.

[Phil Carter]

Hello Norma, Claire,

Indeed, both of you are of course correct. Norma I will send a pm with some of the stats I mentioned above.

best wishes

Phil

[Natalie Severn]

Hi Phil,
I think the 8.5% is for today though Phil,not for the 1960"s! I am sure two world wars affected those statistics though Claire is ofcourse correct in pointing to various other factors that affect such statistics!
Norma

[Phil Carter]

Amazing Phil given that WW2 would have been partly responsible for reducing the numbers of men and women living beyond those ages in 1948
whereas by 2010 and no recent world war,the statistics are still only 8.5%
Best
Norma

Hello Norma,

Indeed. I have some figures from the 1960's showing the percentage of causes of death in different areas.. heart disease, cancer and pnuemonia amongst others. The statistics vary of course, but the rise in some ailments being the main cause of death rises dramitically after WW2. This may explain the 8.5% you mentioned.

best wishes

Phil

[Phil Carter]

Conclusion

Hello all,

The final set of figures may help us to appreciate the actual age of living persons born in around 1841 and still alive in 1888..

In the years 1881-1890, baesd on English life tables, the following is recorded:-

At birth during these years, age expectancy:- Males 44.1, females 47.8

At age 45 in 1881-1890 males were expected to live a further 22.1
years..average age at death therefore 66.2 years of age, females a further 24.1 years..average age at death therefore 71.9 years of age.

At age 65 in 1880-1890 males were expected to live for a further 10.3 years of age..average age at death therefore 75.8 years of age, females a further 11.3 years of age...average age at death therefore 76.8 years of age.

However, it must be remembered that in the period 1881 to 1890, only a small percentage of the population actually reached these ages. Likewise, those living until their 80's in 1948 reflects this small percentage that Nats commented upon.

This seems to indicate that once past the age of 45 in 1888, the chances of living a further 20 plus years is fair. However, this does not by any means conclude that all those living age at the age of 45 in 1888 continued beyond the age of 66.
Only a very small percentage of the population did so, infact.

Source:- as previously stated above.

best wishes

Phil

[Jane Coram]

Jack the Ripper

Hi,

I always thought it was interesting that Walter Dew, who granted, didn't appear to have had the best memory ever, claimed that the name 'Jack the Ripper' was used quite early on in the series of murders in the street and was scrawled on in graffito around the area, prior to the letter first using his name.

I've never seen it anywhere else, and given Walter's track record, it's hard to put too much credence in it, but it's always intrigued me.

Hugs

Janie

xxxx

[claire]

We generally find big differences between life expectancy at birth and life expectancy as calculated later in life. Clearly (for the reasons that Supe [?] mentions), life expectancy at birth is skewed by infant mortality rates that, in 19th C London, were significantly higher than they are now (and they still have a sizeable effect). As an example, life expectancy at birth in the UK could now be stated as 70 (I've not got the figures to hand, so this is just an example--it's around that, I think). However, life expectancy at 65 is not just five more years--it's far more likely to be in the region of 15-20 years now, in the UK. The reason is simply because many of the key risk age groups have been passed through--infant mortality; suicide amongst young males et cetera.

Correspondingly, stating life expectancy at birth to be 27, or 45, or whatever is not the same as saying, most people in this group are dead by 27 or 45.

Stats 101 lecture over Sorry.

[Tom_Wescott]

Thanks Don, and I hope Phil's post was intended to support what Don and myself were saying. So Adam and Phil's notion that Chapman should have dropped dead any day from old age at 47 is simply not true. Let us PLEASE try to prevent the spread of new myths where we can.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Natalie Severn]

Hello all,

The % that is recorded for persons in England and Wales living to between 65 and 74 years of age in 1948 was 7.2% with a further 3.3% living beyond 75 years of age.
In 1981 this had risen to 9.2% (65-74) with a further 5.8% living beyond 75 years of age.

http://www.ohe.org/page/knowledge/sc...population.cfm

Source:- Office of Health Economics, Annual Abstract of Statistics (ONS)
Population Trends (ONS)
Monitor PP2 98/1 (ONS)

best wishes

Phil

Amazing Phil given that WW2 would have been partly responsible for reducing the numbers of men and women living beyond those ages in 1948
whereas by 2010 and no recent world war,the statistics are still only 8.5%
Best
Norma

[Phil Carter]

Hello all,

The % that is recorded for persons in England and Wales living to between 65 and 74 years of age in 1948 was 7.2% with a further 3.3% living beyond 75 years of age.
In 1981 this had risen to 9.2% (65-74) with a further 5.8% living beyond 75 years of age.

http://www.ohe.org/page/knowledge/sc...population.cfm

Source:- Office of Health Economics, Annual Abstract of Statistics (ONS)
Population Trends (ONS)
Monitor PP2 98/1 (ONS)

best wishes

Phil

[Supe]

People, life expectancy tables are heavily influenced by infant mortality rates, which were high in the area at the time, and to a lesser extent by complications of pregnancy.

As an example, some might be surprised that a male in 17th C Massachusetts Bay Colony had the same life expectancy as a male in that area in 1975--once he attained the age of 20. Similarly, any woman who reached menopause in Mass. Bay actually had a slightly greater life expectancy than her modern counterparts.

Don.

[Tom_Wescott]

These stats are for people BORN IN THE EARLY 1800's, not born in the 1840's, and the stats are still incorrect as a study of the census of the times easily shows. Men were simply not dropping dead all over the place at 25. How can you allow yourself to believe this stuff? Jiminy Christmas. And things were not a 'little better' in 1888, they were much better. Aside from the men of the IWEC, how many of the characters in the case were under 25? These were all people who lived into their 60s, 70's, and 80's, including Matthew Packer, Fanny Mortimer, ad infinitum.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Phil Carter]

Hello Tom,

Thanks to Admin, on JTR forums for this post, and Howard, for the second part that follows:-

The Registrar General reported in 1841 that while mean life expectancy in Surrey was forty-five years of age, it was only thirty-seven in London and twenty-six in Liverpool. The average tradesman died in his mid-twenties, and the average age of "labourers, mechanics, and servants" at time of death was only fifteen years. Mortality figures for crowded districts like Shoreditch, Whitechapel, and Bethnal Green were typically twice as high as those for the ‘respectable’ middle-class areas of London. These life expectancies appear shockingly low because of the accelerated mortality rate of children; 62% of all deaths recorded in 1842 London were of children under 5.

Things had improved somewhat by 1888, since cholera and typhoid were no longer killing people by the thousands each year, and general sanitation had improved across the board such that infant mortality rates had declined significantly. (Admin)

http://www.ohe.org/page/knowledge/sc...expectancy.cfm

(Howard)

best wishes

Phil

[Tom_Wescott]

I may be wrong, but I believe the average life expectancy of a female born in the mid 1800's was around 42.

Phil Carter wrong? NAAAAAAAH. Couldn't be. Let's see, if women died at 42, and live longer than males, then men should have been dropping off at about 37. Use your brain, people.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Diddles]

It should be noted that the whole hatchet story is repeated in the Introduction on this very site:
"Nick Warren, a student of the crimes and a practicing surgeon, studied the second Kelly crime scene photograph that was recently recovered, and was able to establish that a hatchet was used by the Ripper to split one of his victim's legs!"