Originally posted by FrankO
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So, lets make up two sets of two murders each, and see what the built in similarities and differences can tell us.
A. First, we have series with five similarities and one dissimilarity:
1. Both victims are found in the same area and at general time period.
2. Both victims have had their abdomens cut open.
3. Both victims have been shot to death.
4. Both victims have gun powder residue on their temples, showing that they have been killed execution style, at very close range.
5. Both victims are members of the same family.
6. One of the victims is male, the other female.
The difference in sex will normally be regarded as crucial, so it is a big difference. However, the many similarities are overwhelmingly clear and there can be little doubt that these two victims have been killed by the same person or persons. Although the police would always say that they leave all avenues of research open, nobody would reason in any other way than these victims having fallen prey to the same killer or killers.
B. Now, we compare to a case with five differences and only one similarity:
1. The victims are one teenage girl and one ninety year old man.
2. The girl is killed by a gunshot, and the man is poisoned.
3. The girl is killed in Canada and the man in Mongolia.
4. The girl is killed in 2022, while the man is killed in 1998.
5. The girl is killed in a city apartment in Toronto, while the man is killed out in the open Mongolian landscape, far from civilization.
6. Both the girl and the man are found with the letter combination T-D-A-O-T D written in ink on their foreheads.
In spite of the many extreme differences, these two murders must and will be regarded as at least clearly linked to each other. If the information about the letters on the forehead never reached beyond the police, we can even conclude that we are dealing with the same killer or killers in both cases.
A dissimilarity can never prove two different perps, regardless of what that dissimilarity is. It is impossible, regardless of what that dissimilarity is. Some will say that if two murders are perpetrated far apart but at the same time, then we must have two different killers. That is true, but "at the same time" is not a dissimilarity, it is a similarity.
Contrary to this, a similarity can and will often prove a single perpetrator. It of course depends on the character of the similarity, but generally speaking, the rarer it is, the more certain we may be of a single perpetrator. And the more similarities there are, the more certain we may be of a single perp. If we have a combination of many similarities, some or all of them of a very rare kind, it is a done deal that a single killer must be the working premise, unless there is something to weigh the similarities up. And that something will never be a dissimilarity, but instead something like how it can be proven that one person is guilty of a murder in the first series, but has an alibi for the murders in the second series.
True to the above, the cons Herlock mentions in his post does nothing at all to clear away the possibility of a single killer. First, we CAN connect the torsos to each other, so Herlock is wrong there. They were connected by Charles Hebbert on account of how they were in just about every part exactly the same in terms of damage to the bodies. Crucially, it has nothing to do with disabling a common Ripper and Torso killer.
His next point is that we can't prove that the torso murders were murders, but that too means nothing for whether or not the two series were connected or not, until Herlock - or anybody else - can produce conclusive proof that they were NOT murders. Finally, Herlock tells us that the differences are conclusive in telling us that the series are unconnected. Which is when I direct him to the examples above - it is never about the differences, as long as there are similarities of an exceedingly rare kind. Plus, of course, much of the reasoning about dissimilarities are about how the Torso killer was a Westender - but that point goes up in flames when we see how 25 per cent of the canonical victims is firmly linked to the East End. Moreover, it was thought that one victim of the four was carried manually to the dumping site, implicating that this victim was dumped not far from where the killer lived or had a bolthole, and that victim was the Pinchin Street victim, where sack imprints were found on the dumped torso. It is also reasoned that the cutting was different and of varying skill - a point that dissolves when we acknowledge that the deeds were very likely carried out under very different conditions in terms of light, time access and so forth. A third point is that one killer dismembered, and the other did not. But we know that there was seemingly an effort to decapitate Kelly, and that the killer failed to do so by way of knife. And we also know that Hebbert informs us that the Torso killer only advanced to being able to decapitate by way of knife in September of 1889, making this matter a similarity between the series, not a dissimilarity. Herlock then tries the angle that the killers left their victims in different locations, but that can be readily explained by how the Torso killer likely killed in a site to which he could be linked and so he MUST dispose of his bodies by dumping them away from that site, whereas the Ripper murders demanded no such thing at all. And POOF! goes that argument. Differing circumstances will very likely result in differing results.
What we are left with is therefore a simple choice: Are evisceration victims in the same town and general time and with very rare damage done to their bodies more likely to be victims of one killer or two or more killers?
That is the one question we need to answer. Nothing else.
To be frank, it is a very, very easy question. And that brings us to how Herlock claims that the pros in these cases are debatable: We don't know that the damage looked alike, he says, and every dismembered and eviscerated victim will look like the next, apparently.
As we all understand, that is plain wrong. These murders involved cuts from sternum to groin, and the cuts made in evisceration murders may be of any size - and in any place of the torso - allowing for extracting organs.
And it is of course very odd to claim that all large flaps of abdominal wall flesh removed will look alike - it is the singular fact that removing abdominal walls as such is rarer than hens teeth that matters here. And that means that even if the flaps from Kelly, Chapman and Jackson were not all of the exact same size and shape, it is not in any shape or form likely to be an indication of different killers! The mere suggestion would be senseless. The rarity stipulates that a common killer must be then presumption, and after that, it takes clear an unambiguous evidence to disprove it.
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