Torso Killer discussion from Millwood Thread

[JeffHamm]

Interesting Jeff,

Thanks for the work you put into the geo-profiling. I am not much for it, but, I will say it so happens the two men I feel were possibly involved with these cases both lived in or near the pink zone and worked in the red zone. In fact they worked at the site of the then New Whitehall Police Building. One of the more likely travel routes for one, Frederick Wildbore, took him across Albert Bridge, past the Shelley house, past the docks where the arm was found at Pimilco and straight to the vault where he stored his tools and the torso and leg were found. The other man, Richard Lawrence (his mate) also worked at the vault, possibly took a similar route to work and also lived at one time near the Pancras Lock where some of the 1887 Rainham torso parts were found in the Regents Canal. They were carpenters and would have been skilled with a saw.

Whether they were murderers or not, I can't say. Perhaps they were only "body movers"? Both the Whitehall torso and the Pinchin torso were both predicted to be found before the discovery of the bodies. And on a small side note, I still personally feel the date of the death of the Whitehall woman was September 8th, 1888. Some see significance in that and others don't.

Hi,

It gets over hyped, certainly in the media and movies, and comes across as if the goal is to pin-point a specific address. That's used-car salesman talk. The goal is to suggest areas that have a higher probability of containing the offender than others. The probabilities are derived from emperical testing. In the simplest form, an offender could be anywhere, they may travel 100 miles every week just to commit their crimes in some specific area, or they may randomly drive in various directions. But they don't. If you have a bunch of crimes that you know are committed by the same offender, draw the smallest circle you can that rings in all the crimes. You've just done a geographical profile, and you have about 80% chance of just having drawn a circle around your offender (meaning, if you did that for the crime locations from 10 different series, Ted Bundy, Dennis Rader, Albert Desalvo, etc then you might only expect 2 of them to have escaped your net. Now, to be fair, some of those nets are still pretty big. The idea is to refine that, and try and figure out, where in my ring should I start my search. It's not fool proof, there are cases that "buck the trend" (like the 2 who don't live inside the circle we drew), but it's not about solving cases, that's what detectives and investigators do, it's about providing information with regards to probabilities, a suggested ranking of priorities - where to investigate next, until real leads and evidence get located. I guess, this is more about trying to suggest where might be a good place to find those leads and evidence. But it's cool to hear that some suspects exist in the locations highlighted.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

For possible connections with the Torso and the Ripper a lot of people write off the graffiti found next to it but I'm thinking differently about it these days. "Lipski" is a strange coincidence to be found on the wall and happens to be said by the possible killer of Liz Stride when interrupted during his assault. What do others feel about this possible link? Connected? or just random graffiti not done at the time of the body dump?

In 1887 a fellow by the name of Lipski was hanged for murder (as noted in the article). Because he was Jewish, his name was used in a derogatory way to refer to anybody who was Jewish - the name "Lipski" became an insult, and it was used fairly commonly apparently. In the Stride case, it is far more likely that broad shouldered man was yelling "Lipski" at Schwartz himself (who was described as being recognizably Jewish in appearance) and not calling out the name / code-name of a partner (pipe man). I think it was Anderson who pointed that out in 1888, and indicated that Lipski was a common insult. In that light, it makes the finding of it in Graffiti much less surprising.
- Jeff

[RedBundy13]

For possible connections with the Torso and the Ripper a lot of people write off the graffiti found next to it but I'm thinking differently about it these days. "Lipski" is a strange coincidence to be found on the wall and happens to be said by the possible killer of Liz Stride when interrupted during his assault. What do others feel about this possible link? Connected? or just random graffiti not done at the time of the body dump?

[jerryd]

Interesting Jeff,

Thanks for the work you put into the geo-profiling. I am not much for it, but, I will say it so happens the two men I feel were possibly involved with these cases both lived in or near the pink zone and worked in the red zone. In fact they worked at the site of the then New Whitehall Police Building. One of the more likely travel routes for one, Frederick Wildbore, took him across Albert Bridge, past the Shelley house, past the docks where the arm was found at Pimilco and straight to the vault where he stored his tools and the torso and leg were found. The other man, Richard Lawrence (his mate) also worked at the vault, possibly took a similar route to work and also lived at one time near the Pancras Lock where some of the 1887 Rainham torso parts were found in the Regents Canal. They were carpenters and would have been skilled with a saw.

Whether they were murderers or not, I can't say. Perhaps they were only "body movers"? Both the Whitehall torso and the Pinchin torso were both predicted to be found before the discovery of the bodies. And on a small side note, I still personally feel the date of the death of the Whitehall woman was September 8th, 1888. Some see significance in that and others don't.

[JeffHamm]

Because the crime zone is so large, the search area, even though reduced, will still be big. The more distance an offender travels, the less important small deviations will make, so the estimated areas of interest expand in size. This is not about pinpointing specific addresses, it's about trying to give a general idea of roughly where to look. It still requires good old fashioned shoe leather to solve things.

- Jeff

PS: The pink area is the highest priority zone, red zones are the next best, and when offenders are located in pink or red, then the analysis has done better than randomly searching.

[JeffHamm]

Ok, this will put the cat among the pigeons

I've made a couple of assumptions about the deposit sites. I've marked the Battersea Bridge, and the location that's on land in the North East. I've also marked the bridge to the far west as the desposit location for the western most shore line find, and the bridge between Battersea and the western one that's in the south "bend".

Now, I want to point out, my routines for dump sites are not well tested, so they could be quite inaccurate (they've worked for Gary Ridgeway, Ted Bundy, and Wayne Williams, but as the analysis was based upon the Ridgeway and William cases, the only real test was Bundy, and he was in zone 13 (so, better than chance, but not what I would call instilling great confidence). So, this is for entertainment purposes only.

The main area prioritized is, not surprisingly, centred on Battersea Bridge. But, what some will find to their liking, there's a second, minor peak of interest in, Whitechapel. Just inside the blue line marking the devision of the C5, and the JtR hotspots are close to that line too.

Have fun and be nice everyone.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

From memory, I believe the Police thought that the most likely dump site for Liz Jackson's body parts was the Albert Bridge (right hand one in the dark blue oval - the left hand bridge, Battersea bridge, had been demolished and was being rebuilt), and at an early morning time to catch the outgoing tide (west to east, as is the natural flow of the river). Certainly they dredged the river on both sides of this bridge in a fruitless attempt to recover her head. As Sam said, the two body parts found on land were located somewhere near either end of Albert Bridge, and the first part found was washed ashore very near it. Although another part was found, almost at the same time, five miles downstream near Tower Bridge.

Thanks for that, much appreciated. Yes, the west->east flow of the river would reduce any incoming tide drift towards the west. The Battersea bridge makes perfect sense as the common dumping point given the predominantly easterly flow to be expected. And as you say, the parts dumped on land near the bridge also point to that conclusion, so the various lines starting running together.

that would make Battersea Bridge a good location to mark, the wash up points, however, would be otherwise uninformative to the Torso Killer's location as they reflect the behaviour of the river from the point the parts enter the water.

- Jeff

[Joshua Rogan]

if the tides were found to be predominately flowing to the east, and given the bend at Vauxhall making it quite possible to be a collection point, then one might concentrate more on the bridge area in light blue (a few things washed ashore close to it, but as the river runs fairly straight, things drift away, then collect at the first bend, some making it past a bit, a few continuing.

But, if the tides were generally in the opposite direction, one would consider the bridge in dark blue for the same reason. As the flow patterns of the river will be different for incoming and outgoing tides, which side of the river, north or south, tends to collect more debris, on incoming and outgoing tides would be good to know - even if there isn't a marked difference that's important to actually know rather than guess at.

From memory, I believe the Police thought that the most likely dump site for Liz Jackson's body parts was the Albert Bridge (right hand one in the dark blue oval - the left hand bridge, Battersea bridge, had been demolished and was being rebuilt), and at an early morning time to catch the outgoing tide (west to east, as is the natural flow of the river). Certainly they dredged the river on both sides of this bridge in a fruitless attempt to recover her head. As Sam said, the two body parts found on land were located somewhere near either end of Albert Bridge, and the first part found was washed ashore very near it. Although another part was found, almost at the same time, five miles downstream near Tower Bridge.

[Michael W Richards]

The obvious difference between leaving a body to be readily discovered, and, excluding Mary Kelly, making no attempt to prevent easy identification of the victim is the dividing line between the Torso murders and the alleged Ripper murders...and the other unsolved murders. The Torso person used the bodies for whatever purpose he had...likely just killing and dismembering, and when he was finished, he intentionally took away an easy identification of his victim. Yes, the parts would be found...not that he cared, because even today we cant be sure of any Torso id's.

The person who killed Mary Nichols and Annie Chapman demonstrated an ease with their bodies being discovered shortly after the murder, and did nothing to disfigure them to prevent an easy id. He cared only for his compulsions. The man who made Torsos, (over a number of years not months), took his victims apart and disposed of them so that they would not be found complete, so that their identifications.....and any connection he may have had with those victims would be hidden.

Not the same bloke at all.

[JeffHamm]

I'd incline more to the latter, not least because some body parts were found on land in Battersea Park and in the garden of Shelley House, both of which are to the west of Vauxhall Bridge.

Yah, I should have included it when I was circling bridges in the first place. I left it out as I was trying to roughly divide the tide in either direction since I don't know which way it was going. Tide charts would help clarify which direction the majority of parts would have drifted. It gets problematic the longer the parts were in the water, because they can drift out on the initial tide, then drift back after it changes. Of course, it depends upon the flow of the river too, some will not deposite very much until very far from the deposit site and then everything washes up in one location due to some physical feature of the watercourse, which is what the dropping items is about, to try and map out how this particular river deposits items on the shore. Knowing that could easily change the drop location. This would be an interesting problem to work on, but it requires a data gathering exercise to crack it (not the case, just the estimation of drop point, which then might help provide a solution).

Since those locations span a number of different murders, it does suggest a common dropping point, which would indicate a common offender (making the same choice as to where to dispose of the parts). That, of course is qualified by barring the area between Vauxhall bridge and the next one to its west being a natural "collection zone" for the Thames, in which case, the clustering could result even if multiple offenders were depositing from different locations. Without knowing that, the common deposit site is just the conclusion you get to if you select one side of the assumption.

It's important to compare where you end up if you make the other choice, and if the two destinations are widely different, then it's time to stop guessing, but you know where to look for evidence.

For example, if the tides were found to be predominately flowing to the east, and given the bend at Vauxhall making it quite possible to be a collection point, then one might concentrate more on the bridge area in light blue (a few things washed ashore close to it, but as the river runs fairly straight, things drift away, then collect at the first bend, some making it past a bit, a few continuing.

But, if the tides were generally in the opposite direction, one would consider the bridge in dark blue for the same reason. As the flow patterns of the river will be different for incoming and outgoing tides, which side of the river, north or south, tends to collect more debris, on incoming and outgoing tides would be good to know - even if there isn't a marked difference that's important to actually know rather than guess at.

Unfortunately, modern day flow patterns in the Thames will be nothing like what they were in the 1880s, so all of this type of information cannot be collected now and be useful.

- Jeff

[Sam Flynn]

when my wife and I visited London a few years back we stayed at a hotel west of Hyde park and walked through it to get to Buckingham palace and then to Big Ben. didn't seem too far of a walk-20 minutes maybe?

I trust you weren't carrying large, oozing and incriminating chunks of body, Abby

especially if you have access to a cart

I'd have thought that it would have been essential. Besides, why no dump-sites out East (apart from the obvious one)? Why go to all the way from Whitechapel to Battersea/Chelsea, or vice-versa, when there were any number of dropping-off points in between?

Nah. Pinchin excepted, whoever dumped the torsos lived, hunted and killed somewhere in West London.

[Abby Normal]

Hello Jeff

A couple of years back, I made a map of where the body parts were dumped or, more frequently, had drifted; note, however, that the Rainham torso would be waaaay off to the right, so it's not shown. Here's the map again, with the blue line, as I recall, representing the boundary of the Canonical Ripper murders.

hi sam (and Ham)
thanks for posting-very interesting.
when my wife and I visited London a few years back we stayed at a hotel west of Hyde park and walked through it to get to Buckingham palace and then to Big Ben. didn't seem too far of a walk-20 minutes maybe? looking at the map-WC seems about twice that distance so not that far away, especially if you have access to a cart.

re the tide table-great idea Jeff! one could check when and which direction the tide is going, and since torsoman more than likely deposited at night(and hence the direction the tide is going at night)-that could help determine where he dumped from. But on the face of it I agree with sam, looks like he dumped around Battersea park and bridge there.

[Abby Normal]

For that to be true, we must believe that:

1. McKenzie was a Ripper victim
2. The Pinchin Street torso was deposited by the same perpetrator(s) as the West London torso dumps
3. "The" Ripper and "the" Torso Killer were one and the same person

It's all a bit circular, isn't it?

hi sam
no. just assumptions and similarities. Im assuming your 1 and 2. and 3 is just the conclusion based on the similarities.

[Sam Flynn]

So it looks like they may have been tossed in from around the area I've circled in purple, or possibly the next bridge west

I'd incline more to the latter, not least because some body parts were found on land in Battersea Park and in the garden of Shelley House, both of which are to the west of Vauxhall Bridge.

[JeffHamm]

Hello Jeff

A couple of years back, I made a map of where the body parts were dumped or, more frequently, had drifted; note, however, that the Rainham torso would be waaaay off to the right, so it's not shown. Here's the map again, with the blue line, as I recall, representing the boundary of the Canonical Ripper murders.

Thanks for that Sam. I'm assuming the locations along the Thames are for the most part, ones that have washed ashore? Given the Thames is tidal, they could drift either direction pending on incoming or outgoing tides. I would think a historic tide timetable would be useful to look around the time the parts were thought to have entered the water (if they were able to make such a determination). Anyway, on the basis that most of these have drifted from somewhere, it looks like a dispersal pattern, where locations concentrate relatively near where they were thrown in, and spread out as they've drifted further (not as many make it that far and wash ashore, before then). So it looks like they may have been tossed in from around the area I've circled in purple (or possibly the next bridge west), but this is just a guess as one needs to know the flow patterns of the specific river. The thing to do would be do dump marked items, of similar buoyancy, weight, etc, and determine how they disperse in the Thames under similar tide conditions (again, if they had a good idea of when the parts entered the water, then it's just a matter of looking up the tide around that time). Working out where the marked items end up would help narrow down where the body parts likely entered into the river. That location would be a good place to start considering where to then search for suspects.

- Jeff