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  • Batman: I probably think this is more of a testimony as to how profiling isn't a science but very subjective.

    It is based on statistical truths, so in that sense, it has itīs ground in science. The problem that tags along is that not all people will live by the statistical truths.

    It doesn't have much baring on a double event anyway as you can claim both are achievable by disorganized/organized.

    The whole concept of dividing killers up in an organized and a disorganized group is somewhat outdated, for that exact reason. It has itīs advantages and itīs limitations, just like profiling does.
    One issue I am having with the typology is that it lends itself very well to the assumption that the more risks a killer takes, the less organized he will be. That is simply not true. Taking risks is throwing caution to the wind, not necessarily organization, though. As I have been trying to point out, a mentally challenged killer does not kill in the open street because he has decided that the risk is worth taking. To such a killer, it is not a question of rationally weighing the risks, but instead a question of answering to completely different mechanisms than riskjudging. A not mentally challenged killer who kills in the street will be acutely aware of the risks - but wiling to take them. That tells us a lot about the character of such a man, and I for one would say that there is a near certainty that such a killer will be a psychopath.

    I am much more interested in how the timing between events, distances and trajectories make it even more of a low probability that they are different killers. That probability is somewhere down near nil.

    Iīm sorry, but you just lost me again. Are you talking about the so called double event (in which case I agree, although I do not see the probability of two different killers as being close to nil) or are you speaking of the Ripper murders versus the Torso murders (in which case I also agree, and where I find there is much more forensic reasons to identify the two as one and the same).
    Last edited by Fisherman; 03-19-2017, 11:27 PM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
      Batman: I probably think this is more of a testimony as to how profiling isn't a science but very subjective.

      It is based on statistical truths, so in that sense, it has itīs ground in science. The problem that tags along is that not all people will live by the statistical truths.

      It doesn't have much baring on a double event anyway as you can claim both are achievable by disorganized/organized.

      The whole concept of dividing killers up in an organized and a disorganized group is somewhat outdated, for that exact reason. It has itīs advantages and itīs limitations, just like profiling does.
      One issue I am having with the typology is that it lends itself very well to the assumption that the more risks a killer takes, the less organized he will be. That is simply not true. Taking risks is throwing caution to the wind, not necessarily organization, though. As I have been trying to point out, a mentally challenged killer does not kill in the open street because he has decided that the risk is worth taking. To such a killer, it is not a question of rationally weighing the risks, but instead a question of answering to completely different mechanisms than riskjudging. A not mentally challenged killer who kills in the street will be acutely aware of the risks - but wiling to take them. That tells us a lot about the character of such a man, and I for one would say that there is a near certainty that such a killer will be a psychopath.

      I am much more interested in how the timing between events, distances and trajectories make it even more of a low probability that they are different killers. That probability is somewhere down near nil.

      Iīm sorry, but you just lost me again. Are you talking about the so called double event (in which case I agree, although I do not see the probability of two different killers as being close to nil) or are you speaking of the Ripper murders versus the Torso murders (in which case I also agree, and where I find there is much more forensic reasons to identify the two as one and the same).
      Statistics isn't a science. Its not empirical. Its a tool used by scientists for quantification like any maths.

      I have only ever been talking about the double event in this thread titled Lipski.
      Bona fide canonical and then some.

      Comment


      • Ted Bundy also flip flopped from organized to disorganized. he started out more disorganized, evolved into his organized state-with complicated ruses and then changed back in the end to disorganized.

        If he was never caught for the Florida sorority attacks, then they probably would never have connected those to him as it was so totally disorganized and unlike his mature method.

        serial killers MO change due to different circumstances and can evolve as they learn how to accomplish what they want more effectively. and can also devolve due to circumstances including the killers mental state and "desperation".

        Their sig can evolve also as there fantasy progresses and the violence escalates. and yes I know sig dosnt change as much as MO can.

        Their also can be overlap between MO and sig which can confuse things.

        Bottom line you have to look at the BIG PICTURE and try to determine if there are enough similarities between what, at first blush, might appear to be differences, to consider if they are related.

        IMHO there definitely are between torso man and the ripper to strongly consider they are the same person. and IMHO both were highly sophisticated and organized killers who took great care to accomplish what they wanted-primarily post mortem mutilation and deconstruction of the female body without being apprehended, with a secondary desire to purposely shock the public.


        And getting back to the original point of this thread-no disorganized killer could have pulled off the double event, let alone the c-5. Yeah the ripper was lucky-but he knew what he was doing and made his own luck.
        "Is all that we see or seem
        but a dream within a dream?"

        -Edgar Allan Poe


        "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
        quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

        -Frederick G. Abberline

        Comment


        • Batman: Statistics isn't a science. Its not empirical. Its a tool used by scientists for quantification like any maths.

          Yes, science uses statistics - which is just about what I am trying to say. And profiling is based on quantification to a large degree.

          I have only ever been talking about the double event in this thread titled Lipski.

          Okidoki - what I say stands: I think that Stride belongs to the Ripper tally, but I would not say that it a certainty by any means.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Abby Normal View Post
            Ted Bundy also flip flopped from organized to disorganized. he started out more disorganized, evolved into his organized state-with complicated ruses and then changed back in the end to disorganized.

            If he was never caught for the Florida sorority attacks, then they probably would never have connected those to him as it was so totally disorganized and unlike his mature method.

            serial killers MO change due to different circumstances and can evolve as they learn how to accomplish what they want more effectively. and can also devolve due to circumstances including the killers mental state and "desperation".

            Their sig can evolve also as there fantasy progresses and the violence escalates. and yes I know sig dosnt change as much as MO can.

            Their also can be overlap between MO and sig which can confuse things.

            Bottom line you have to look at the BIG PICTURE and try to determine if there are enough similarities between what, at first blush, might appear to be differences, to consider if they are related.

            IMHO there definitely are between torso man and the ripper to strongly consider they are the same person. and IMHO both were highly sophisticated and organized killers who took great care to accomplish what they wanted-primarily post mortem mutilation and deconstruction of the female body without being apprehended, with a secondary desire to purposely shock the public.


            And getting back to the original point of this thread-no disorganized killer could have pulled off the double event, let alone the c-5. Yeah the ripper was lucky-but he knew what he was doing and made his own luck.
            I may as well give up posting here, Abby That was a very good condensation of what applies!

            Comment


            • The Torso killer dismembered his victims, the Ripper didn't.

              The Torso killer decapitated his victims, the Ripper didn't.

              The Torso killer killed his victims in private, the Ripper mainly didn't.

              The Torso killer destroyed his victim's identities, the Ripper didn't.

              The Ripper confined his murders to Whitechapel, the Torso killer didn't.

              The Torso killer was attributed anatomical skill, but the one victim the Ripper killed in private was a hatchet job.

              The Torso Murders spanned two years, the Ripper murders spanned twelve weeks.

              Comment


              • Harry D: The Torso killer dismembered his victims, the Ripper didn't.

                The torso killer had a need to transport his victims from his bolthole, the Ripper didnīt.

                The Torso killer decapitated his victims, the Ripper didn't.

                The Torso killer had a need to transport his victims from his bolthole, the Ripper didnīt.

                The Torso killer killed his victims in private, the Ripper mainly didn't.

                The Ripper did kill in private too, and many serialists have killed in- and outdoors.

                The Torso killer destroyed his victim's identities, the Ripper didn't.

                Destroying is a conscious act, and it may well be that the Torso killer simply threw the heads in the Thames with the rest - and the heads, being heavier, sunk. No conscious destruction, therefore. The destruction of Kellys face is much more of a proven destruction of an identity, by the way.

                The Ripper confined his murders to Whitechapel, the Torso killer didn't.

                You have absolutely no idea where the Torso man killed his victims - and the Ripper did not confine his victims to Whitechapel. Stride was killed in St Georges in the East, for example, and Eddowes in the City.

                The Torso killer was attributed anatomical skill, but the one victim the Ripper killed in private was a hatchet job.

                The Ripper was also attributed anatomical skill, by more than one medico.

                The Torso Murders spanned two years, the Ripper murders spanned twelve weeks.

                You have no idea about that either. The Torso murders spanned at least sixteen years, going by the signs on the bodies, and the Ripper murders may involve MacKenzie, for example. We cannot simply buy what MacNaghten told us about the C5 - he was guessing, as are we.

                Wow, Harry - that didnīt work out very well, did it?
                Last edited by Fisherman; 03-20-2017, 02:11 PM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by John G View Post
                  Of course you totally ignore the obvious anomalies. Thus, you believe you've uncovered the first serial killer in history who alternated between two ritualistic behaviours; who alternated between being organized and disorganized; who alternated between being a commuter and a marauder; whose psychology kept changing,. I.e. from a killer who clearly enjoyed spending time with his victims-the Whitehall victim's body may well have been stored for 2 months- to a killer who just left women in the street.
                  You sound like me when I discuss the root concept of this Canonical Five. Obvious anomalies.
                  Michael Richards

                  Comment


                  • Hi Harry

                    [QUOTE=Harry D;410876]
                    The Torso killer dismembered his victims, the Ripper didn't.
                    That's accurate.

                    The Torso killer decapitated his victims, the Ripper didn't.

                    Some contemporary opinion says that the killer of Annie and Polly was attempting to decapitate

                    The Torso killer killed his victims in private, the Ripper mainly didn't.

                    Id drop the "mainly",there is no evidence linking Mary Kellys death with any other so called Canonical.

                    The Torso killer destroyed his victim's identities, the Ripper didn't.

                    It could be argued that Marys killer tried to erase her identity.

                    The Ripper confined his murders to Whitechapel, the Torso killer didn't.

                    These murders require more than just geological parameters and historical timing to be linked together..though god knows thats all that puts a Liz Stride in the group.

                    The Torso killer was attributed anatomical skill, but the one victim the Ripper killed in private was a hatchet job.

                    Why I would say "mainly" killed outdoors...more like exclusively.

                    The Torso Murders spanned two years, the Ripper murders spanned twelve weeks.

                    Some claim that the Ripper was still active long after 1888.
                    Michael Richards

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post

                      there is no evidence linking Mary Kellys death with any other so called Canonical.
                      There is, Iīm afraid - both Chapman and Kelly had their abdominal walls cut away and removed in a small number of flaps. That is as clear a link as we can ever hope for.

                      Off to bed now, goodnight!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        The torso killer had a need to transport his victims from his bolthole, the Ripper didnīt.
                        But according to you he was arrogant enough to tough it out on the streets. Why the need for a bolthole in the first place?

                        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        The Ripper did kill in private too, and many serialists have killed in- and outdoors.
                        Can you name one serial killer who dismembered one series of victims in private whilst mutilating others on the street, in a matter of weeks?

                        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        Destroying is a conscious act, and it may well be that the Torso killer simply threw the heads in the Thames with the rest - and the heads, being heavier, sunk. No conscious destruction, therefore. The destruction of Kellys face is much more of a proven destruction of an identity, by the way.
                        And yet he deliberately left the torsos to be found, not the heads.

                        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        You have absolutely no idea where the Torso man killed his victims - and the Ripper did not confine his victims to Whitechapel. Stride was killed in St Georges in the East, for example, and Eddowes in the City.
                        I don't know where the Torso did his killing but his dump sites stretched across London, whereas the Ripper never ventured outside the comfort of Whitechapel or its outskirts despite other corners of London crawling with prostitutes. Why was the Pinchin Torso the only Torso victim that overlapped with the Ripper's territory?

                        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        The Ripper was also attributed anatomical skill, by more than one medico.
                        Not in the case of Kelly, the only victim killed on similar grounds to the Torso series and he made a right meal of it.

                        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        You have no idea about that either. The Torso murders spanned at least sixteen years, going by the signs on the bodies, and the Ripper murders may involve MacKenzie, for example. We cannot simply buy what MacNaghten told us about the C5 - he was guessing, as are we.
                        And you have no idea that the Torso murders spanned that long, either. For argument's sake, if the murders did span that long, and given the cooling off periods between each murder, that would suggest an organized killer with a degree of self-control, in contrast to the Ripper who struck with alarming regularity over a short period of time in high-risk locations.

                        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                        Wow, Harry - that didnīt work out very well, did it?
                        Yeah but no one's judging you, Fish.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Abby Normal View Post
                          Ted Bundy also flip flopped from organized to disorganized. he started out more disorganized, evolved into his organized state-with complicated ruses and then changed back in the end to disorganized.

                          If he was never caught for the Florida sorority attacks, then they probably would never have connected those to him as it was so totally disorganized and unlike his mature method.

                          serial killers MO change due to different circumstances and can evolve as they learn how to accomplish what they want more effectively. and can also devolve due to circumstances including the killers mental state and "desperation".

                          Their sig can evolve also as there fantasy progresses and the violence escalates. and yes I know sig dosnt change as much as MO can.

                          Their also can be overlap between MO and sig which can confuse things.

                          Bottom line you have to look at the BIG PICTURE and try to determine if there are enough similarities between what, at first blush, might appear to be differences, to consider if they are related.

                          IMHO there definitely are between torso man and the ripper to strongly consider they are the same person. and IMHO both were highly sophisticated and organized killers who took great care to accomplish what they wanted-primarily post mortem mutilation and deconstruction of the female body without being apprehended, with a secondary desire to purposely shock the public.


                          And getting back to the original point of this thread-no disorganized killer could have pulled off the double event, let alone the c-5. Yeah the ripper was lucky-but he knew what he was doing and made his own luck.
                          Well said Abby. Just to tack on one point that I see people gloss over but is one of the strongest for me personally in tying the torsos to the Ripper Murders:

                          To say that the Ripper and the Torso Killer are two different people is to inturn infer that there were two serial killers operating in roughly the same area, at roughly the same time who both practiced vaginal mutilations. When I weigh the odds of which would be rarer, I have to imagine the odds become near infinitesimal that it were two separate individuals partaking in such behavior around the same time, around the same area.

                          Even if we expanded the radius to include all of London or even all of England the number of killers who partake in vaginal mutilations is so minuscule that two being active at the same time would be absolutely unheard of. Once you include the years active and the general location it pushes the odds to nearly impossible.

                          Atleast, that is my opinion.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Dane_F View Post
                            Well said Abby. Just to tack on one point that I see people gloss over but is one of the strongest for me personally in tying the torsos to the Ripper Murders:

                            To say that the Ripper and the Torso Killer are two different people is to inturn infer that there were two serial killers operating in roughly the same area, at roughly the same time who both practiced vaginal mutilations. When I weigh the odds of which would be rarer, I have to imagine the odds become near infinitesimal that it were two separate individuals partaking in such behavior around the same time, around the same area.

                            Even if we expanded the radius to include all of London or even all of England the number of killers who partake in vaginal mutilations is so minuscule that two being active at the same time would be absolutely unheard of. Once you include the years active and the general location it pushes the odds to nearly impossible.

                            Atleast, that is my opinion.
                            And yet we have Jane Beadmore's killer in Sept 1888, John Gill's murderer in Dec 1888, and William Bury in 1889, all of whom indulged in some degree of mutilation or dismemberment, one of them even lived in the East End during the autumn of terror. Correlation does not imply causation.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Harry D View Post
                              And yet we have Jane Beadmore's killer in Sept 1888, John Gill's murderer in Dec 1888, and William Bury in 1889, all of whom indulged in some degree of mutilation or dismemberment, one of them even lived in the East End during the autumn of terror. Correlation does not imply causation.
                              Who killed Jane Beadmore and johnny Gill?
                              Last edited by Abby Normal; 03-20-2017, 05:34 PM.
                              "Is all that we see or seem
                              but a dream within a dream?"

                              -Edgar Allan Poe


                              "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                              quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                              -Frederick G. Abberline

                              Comment


                              • If you are looking for a possible relationship between the Torso murders and JtR then a hypothesis I would look to work with is that JtR was harvesting sexual body parts freshly to replace those parts on the torsos he was using to act out his fantasy.

                                Body parts were dumped in a relative of Mary Shelly's garden for example.

                                Which would be behavior more in the direction of Ed Gein. Therefore the canonical five are merely quick fixes for his real home projects.

                                Who knows though? JtR was obviously a disturbed individual.
                                Bona fide canonical and then some.

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