Lechmere validity

[FrankO]

What I have not posted here are some variations where he may reasonably have cut short certain sections of the Beat, which will all be published on Monday.

Hi Steve,

Before reading your quote above, I had just finished the alternative below. As you can see, it has short cuts where there was no private property (i.e. houses), which is primarily on the south side of Buck's Row between Baker's Row and the railway line directly east of the board school. As there was no private property to protect there, Neil wouldn't need to have come up all the way to Buck's Row when checking Wood's Buildings, Court Street and the southern part of Thomas Street.

That way the beat would be around 2217 meters (or 2424 yards), which would be covered in 30 minutes at a speed of 4.4 kph or 2,76 mph. Or in 33 minutes and 5 seconds at a speed of 2.5 mph.



Is this what you have not posted (yet)?

All the best,
Frank

[Elamarna]

I measured out the top one of the two you posted and ended up with 1.585 miles, which makes for a patrol speed of just over 3.17 mph, which is starting to get a bit fast I think. If the incursion into White's Row is removed, then that takes out about 770 feet, which shortens the route to a speed of 2.88 mph, which is more in my comfort zone given the 2.5 regulation speed. But all the same, it places PC Neil in the same general vicinity as all the other variations. I think that conclusion is showing itself to be fairly robust against variations in the proposed beat. That's nice to see for a change.

- Jeff

What I have not posted here are some variations where he may reasonably have cut short certain sections of the Beat, which will all be published on Monday.
Yes the timing are starting to stretch I agree, however we must remember it's not an exact 30-minute beat, but as close to as possible.

At 2.5 mph (4.02 km/h) the longest variation i have worked with is 38 minutes for the beat, with an average of about 32 minutes
For 3mph (4.83 km/h) those figures are 32 minutes and average of 28-29minutes.

While the 38-minute beat may be too long, the rest all seem reasonable.

I would suggest any beat between 2.5-3mph is acceptable, the closer to 2.5 the better.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

I measured out the top one of the two you posted and ended up with 1.585 miles, which makes for a patrol speed of just over 3.17 mph, which is starting to get a bit fast I think. If the incursion into White's Row is removed, then that takes out about 770 feet, which shortens the route to a speed of 2.88 mph, which is more in my comfort zone given the 2.5 regulation speed. But all the same, it places PC Neil in the same general vicinity as all the other variations. I think that conclusion is showing itself to be fairly robust against variations in the proposed beat. That's nice to see for a change.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Jeff,

how about the following to cover the gaps.
In the first is if he enters from Queen Ann. Although it shows Cross Street as a single pass, he can criss-cross, the road is narrow only some ten foot across. The section on the southern side of Bucks Row between Court Street and Woods buildings can either be checked visually from the end points of those two roads and Winthrop street, or he can do a quick walk across from the northern side and back.


The second has him entering from Thomas Street, again the Southern side of Bucks Row can be covered can as suggested above. the same is true for the section between Court Street and the southern section of Thomas Street.



The interesting point is that at least 3 of us, working independently, using the sources, have come to a rough consensus on the beat, and Neil's probable location.

Steve

Hi Steve,

Yes, those variations could work too. Again, most of the variations deal with parts of the beat that are outside the key Queen Ann Street section, so the variations tend to influence the length of the beat, and that in turn influences his estimated speed of the Patrol. So far, I've checked beats that have had a range of speeds up to about 3.1 mph and also checked the regulation speed of 2.5. That range all produces the same end result, PC Neil was up in the Queen Ann Street/Elizabeth Place section during the entire time that Cross/Lechmere and Paul are around, hence, they don't see each other. Given the regulation of 2.5 mph, I think we're starting to get into "probably not this variation" territory once the beat length gets above 1.5 mph, so I sort of question my fastest one a bit, but the conclusion is the same.

And I agree fully, it's nice to see 3 independent "studies" converging on the same conclusion. That's pretty rare in this topic!

- Jeff

[Elamarna]

Jeff,

how about the following to cover the gaps.
In the first is if he enters from Queen Ann. Although it shows Cross Street as a single pass, he can criss-cross, the road is narrow only some ten foot across. The section on the southern side of Bucks Row between Court Street and Woods buildings can either be checked visually from the end points of those two roads and Winthrop street, or he can do a quick walk across from the northern side and back.


The second has him entering from Thomas Street, again the Southern side of Bucks Row can be covered can as suggested above. the same is true for the section between Court Street and the southern section of Thomas Street.



The interesting point is that at least 3 of us, working independently, using the sources, have come to a rough consensus on the beat, and Neil's probable location.

Steve

[JeffHamm]

Ok, I've measured out the beat including this wrinkle, keeping PC Neil on the side with buildings for patrolling Thomas Street, etc. This is slightly shorter than the alternative I posted above, but not much (ends up at a patrol speed of 2.9 mph rather than 3.0, but not quite down to 2.5 either). For consideration I've shown him doing Cross after entering Queen Ann, but there's no reason why that couldn't have been done when coming down Thomas. The beat would be the same length, but it does change some aspects of the critical time period, with the effect that if Cross Street is done starting from Queen Ann, it is even easier to explain how he and the carmen don't meet each other, but as it works even in the "worse case scenerio", that's a detail that doesn't change the conclusion.

But, just to continue considering such details, the disturbing bit is the big "hole" along the north side between Baker's Row and Thomas Street. If we add in that section (say from Baker's Row going up to Thomas Street and back, and staying only on the north side), that adds another 473 feet, and his patrol speed would have to be 3.1 mph for the whole thing to be completed in 30 minutes, and that's an average walking speed over the whole beat.

As I say, it's looking like these finer details are not creating problems as all of the possible solutions lead to the same conclusion, that PC Neil and the carmen didn't see each other because PC Neil was up patrolling Queen Ann street area at the time the carmen passed through Buck's Row on their way to PC Mizen, which is how PC Neil finds the body before PC Mizen has a chance to get there. All of the testimony as given creates a very understandable picture of the events, creating no contradictions, and all of that points towards the testimony being fairly accurate as given. Nice.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi,

I've not done a full beat measurement with this variation, but just trying to work out a way that PC Neil might enter Thomas from Baker's Row (north end of Thomas), and yet still cover the sections where there's something to check (buildings) on both sides of the street. This isn't aesthetically pleasing, but as Steve points out, much of Thomas only has one side that needs patrolling. It's just the short bit before Buck's Row that has buildings on both sides (The buildings on the north side of the east-west running portion of Thomas don't look like they face Thomas, so probably not many, if any doors, to check there as they look to be side walls).

Anyway, something like this sort of works, but it involves him doing both sides a bit on one pass. Looks odd in isolation, but the rest of the beat is easy and this might just be the one "annoying section" if you will. The implication, though, is that something like this would suggest he might do Cross Street after entering Queen Ann (he could do on the Thomas Street pass as well, as I've been doing before), but if he does it this way, that just adds to the time he's in the critical section we've been discussing (making it more understandable how PC Neil and the carmen miss each other).

Again, this is getting a bit focused on parts of the beat that have less and less impact on the most important time period. From the testimony we know that PC Neil finds the body between the carmen leaving and before PC Mizen arrives. My estimation of the carmen's journey time to PC Mizen is about 3 minutes, and they're walking above average speed, so PC Mizen's journey back might be a bit longer, say 3min 30 sec. Add a minute for the interaction with the carmen, and we're looking at a 7 min 30 sec time window. But, we can reduce that a bit because we know PC Neil has to have time to signal PC Thain from Brady Street, who will take a bit to get to the scene, then he has to leave to get Dr. Llewellyn, and then PC Mizen shows up. If that all takes around 2 minutes, it would suggest that PC Neil found the body at 5 min 30 seconds after the carmen left, and based upon testimony of when the meeting with PC Mizen occurred and when PC Neil found the body, suggests he found it about 4 minutes after the car men left. Now, given we're working with estimations of travel durations, distances, routes taken, non-syncronized clocks, and so forth, this is looking really good and well within expected margins of error for this kind of thing.

And, even better, it sounds like a few of us, working independently, are all coming to the same general conclusions. That is very encouraging. Thanks everyone for the feedback and suggestions and contributions.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Thanks showing now.

Have 5 variations based on the Echo account.

And two routes suggest by others. This puts him the closest to the murder.


Steve

Hi Steve,

Glad they're showing. This one would presumes someone else has a beat that covers Baker's Row. I have a preference for the versions that have PC Neil enter Thomas from Baker's Row but then Thomas is not covered on both sides, but it would be the only part that has that issue, so it's probably ok (as you mentioned, one side is pretty void of things to check. Most of the changes in those sections just influence the overall distance, and therefore his speed, but it looks like things are such that the carmen would miss him regardless.

One other thing, the murder could have happened pretty much anytime. We don't know JtR was there when PC Neil started this general area and/or when Cross/Lechmere entered Buck's Row. When PC Neil found her, he mentions blood "oozing" from the throat wound, but that just means the wound was fresh, as it would be even if she was killed 20 or 30 minutes earlier, just after his first patrol. Was just reading Evans and Skinner last night, and there's a description of the Pinchin Street Torso described as the neck wound looking "fresher" than the leg wounds, and blood was "oozing" too. These allow JtR to be close, but it's not necessary that he was.

- JtR

[Elamarna]

Hi Steve,

That's odd, they show up for me? If I use 2.5 mph as his patrol speed, I have him not quite at Cross Street (coming south on Queen Ann, which is just north of the bend as well. For the route as I measured it, he would be patrolling at about 3.0 mph, which is a bit fast for regulations, but I kept the 30 minute patrol time, and this version of his beat (which allows him to patrol both sides of Thomas Street) is a bit longer than when he goes up Baker's Row and enters Thomas at the top end, but that only let's him patrol one side of the street per round. I'll try posting the image again here. and see if that works.

Other versions of the beat are shorter, allowing him to patrol at a slower, more regulation pace, but the Queen Ann Street portion tends to be the same regardless, and that looks to be the critical portion. And what's nice, is that it looks like pretty much any of the versions produce the same conclusion, just the specific details vary a bit.

- Jeff

Thanks showing now.

Have 5 variations based on the Echo account.

And two routes suggest by others. This puts him the closest to the murder.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

that fits in very much with my work Jeff, pity the maps are not showing, so i am having to on your words,

my calculations have him North of the bend in Queen Ann(Bucks Row out of sight) when the Carmen pass. i then have him arriving at the body approximately 2 minutes after that. Coincidentally the Carmen are at Mizen at approximately the same time.

We may be using slightly different figures, but we are reaching the same conclusions.

Steve

Hi Steve,

That's odd, they show up for me? If I use 2.5 mph as his patrol speed, I have him not quite at Cross Street (coming south on Queen Ann, which is just north of the bend as well. For the route as I measured it, he would be patrolling at about 3.0 mph, which is a bit fast for regulations, but I kept the 30 minute patrol time, and this version of his beat (which allows him to patrol both sides of Thomas Street) is a bit longer than when he goes up Baker's Row and enters Thomas at the top end, but that only let's him patrol one side of the street per round. I'll try posting the image again here. and see if that works.

Other versions of the beat are shorter, allowing him to patrol at a slower, more regulation pace, but the Queen Ann Street portion tends to be the same regardless, and that looks to be the critical portion. And what's nice, is that it looks like pretty much any of the versions produce the same conclusion, just the specific details vary a bit.

- Jeff

[Elamarna]

Hi,

Ok, I've just done the measurements for the above beat that covers both sides of Thomas. It's come out a bit longer than the last time I did something like this one, but I think then I didn't include the east-west portion of Thomas Street. Anyway, for this beat to be completed in the testified 30 minutes requires a patrol speed of about 3 mph (266.6 feet per minute), which is starting to get a bit on the fast side as patrols were supposed to be at 2.5 mph. But, given that's what we have, I've marked the following locations in the 2nd map. First, I've placed Nichol's body at the red dot. Now, we know that the carmen leave the body and reach PC Mizen in about 4 minutes, and based upon testimony that's about the time PC Neil finds Nichols. We'll call that time T, so at time T PC Neil is at the red dot and the carmen are at PC Mizen (not marked). Ok, at T-4 minutes, that's when Cross/Lechmere and Paul view the body (for say a minute for all their stuff, then 3 minutes to get to PC Mizen).

So, where is PC Neil at T-4, based upon the beat map and his beat patrol speed of 3.0 mph? He's at the solid blue dot heading out of Elizabeth Place and about to turn left and continue north up Queen Anne, away from Buck's Row.

Based upon PC Neil's Patrol speed, when did he exit Buck's row to enter Queen Ann initially? The distance back through Elizabeth Place and then south to Buck's row is 441 feet, which would take about 1 min 36 seconds (so at T -5 m 36s he's at the blue ring with light orange centre).

Where would Cross be 1 min 36 seconds before viewing the body? Well, we've estimated his walking speed at 3.6 mph earlier, and that's 316.8 feet/min. That means the most distant he could be would if all of that time was him walking, which would be 524 feet away (at the green ring with light orange centre). However, we know he waited for Paul to catch up, they had to chat and go over to the body. I've allowed for that to be up to 36 seconds, so if 36 seconds was "waiting for Paul etc" then he would be walking for a minute. So, Cross/Lechmere should be somewhere along the orange section of the indicated travel line.

Note, as this section of his beat seems likely to be shared regardless of the variations concerning Thomas Street, etc, then if the beat is such that he can patrol at the 2.5 mph, then at T-4 he would be at the Q in Queen Ann Street (about 7 buildings from the top end) and heading north, and clearly, with a greater distance to cover to get back in time to when he entered Queen Ann, Cross just ends up even further away. It will take PC Neil 2.6 minutes to re-enter Buck's Row. The carmen are at the body for one of those minutes, and when they pass Queen Ann PC Neil still has not passed Cross Street, and when PC Neil enters Buck's row and turns left, the carmen would be passed Thomas Street and rounding the bend for the last stretch towards Baker's Row.

In other words, at the slowest and the fastest patrol speeds that seem reasonable, PC Neil and the carmen are in locations that miss each other .

- Jeff

that fits in very much with my work Jeff, pity the maps are not showing, so i am having to on your words,

my calculations have him North of the bend in Queen Ann(Bucks Row out of sight) when the Carmen pass. i then have him arriving at the body approximately 2 minutes after that. Coincidentally the Carmen are at Mizen at approximately the same time.

We may be using slightly different figures, but we are reaching the same conclusions.

Steve

[Elamarna]

Hi,

Ok, I've just done the measurements for the above beat that covers both sides of Thomas. It's come out a bit longer than the last time I did something like this one, but I think then I didn't include the east-west portion of Thomas Street. Anyway, for this beat to be completed in the testified 30 minutes requires a patrol speed of about 3 mph (266.6 feet per minute), which is starting to get a bit on the fast side as patrols were supposed to be at 2.5 mph. But, given that's what we have, I've marked the following locations in the 2nd map. First, I've placed Nichol's body at the red dot. Now, we know that the carmen leave the body and reach PC Mizen in about 4 minutes, and based upon testimony that's about the time PC Neil finds Nichols. We'll call that time T, so at time T PC Neil is at the red dot and the carmen are at PC Mizen (not marked). Ok, at T-4 minutes, that's when Cross/Lechmere and Paul view the body (for say a minute for all their stuff, then 3 minutes to get to PC Mizen).

So, where is PC Neil at T-4, based upon the beat map and his beat patrol speed of 3.0 mph? He's at the solid blue dot heading out of Elizabeth Place and about to turn left and continue north up Queen Anne, away from Buck's Row.

Based upon PC Neil's Patrol speed, when did he exit Buck's row to enter Queen Ann initially? The distance back through Elizabeth Place and then south to Buck's row is 441 feet, which would take about 1 min 36 seconds (so at T -5 m 36s he's at the blue ring with light orange centre).

Where would Cross be 1 min 36 seconds before viewing the body? Well, we've estimated his walking speed at 3.6 mph earlier, and that's 316.8 feet/min. That means the most distant he could be would if all of that time was him walking, which would be 524 feet away (at the green ring with light orange centre). However, we know he waited for Paul to catch up, they had to chat and go over to the body. I've allowed for that to be up to 36 seconds, so if 36 seconds was "waiting for Paul etc" then he would be walking for a minute. So, Cross/Lechmere should be somewhere along the orange section of the indicated travel line.

Note, as this section of his beat seems likely to be shared regardless of the variations concerning Thomas Street, etc, then if the beat is such that he can patrol at the 2.5 mph, then at T-4 he would be at the Q in Queen Ann Street (about 7 buildings from the top end) and heading north, and clearly, with a greater distance to cover to get back in time to when he entered Queen Ann, Cross just ends up even further away. It will take PC Neil 2.6 minutes to re-enter Buck's Row. The carmen are at the body for one of those minutes, and when they pass Queen Ann PC Neil still has not passed Cross Street, and when PC Neil enters Buck's row and turns left, the carmen would be passed Thomas Street and rounding the bend for the last stretch towards Baker's Row.

In other words, at the slowest and the fastest patrol speeds that seem reasonable, PC Neil and the carmen are in locations that miss each other .

- Jeff

cant see the maps Jeff

[Elamarna]

Bobbies on the beat had to cover both sides of every street, just wondering do your timings take that into account?

Yes they are meant to, but if there is nothing to check such a long brick wall or open parkland such as the recreation ground in Thomas street, they may not.

In addition, if we take the beat for Thain as given in the Echo, there is no way he could do every bit of it every beat, if he did it in approx 30 mins. Either the Echo was wrong or he left bits of it out it .
We should also note that these beats were introduced in "J" division in August, according to the Echo. it has been assumed this was due to the death of Tabram, but it needs not be so. it could simply have been to temporary staffing issues.


Steve

[drstrange169]

Good work!

I'm assuming he began his beat towards the end Brady then into Whitechapel and Buck's Row was the finish of his beat.

Based on the fact he came from the Bethnal Green Station.

[JeffHamm]

Hi,

Ok, I've just done the measurements for the above beat that covers both sides of Thomas. It's come out a bit longer than the last time I did something like this one, but I think then I didn't include the east-west portion of Thomas Street. Anyway, for this beat to be completed in the testified 30 minutes requires a patrol speed of about 3 mph (266.6 feet per minute), which is starting to get a bit on the fast side as patrols were supposed to be at 2.5 mph. But, given that's what we have, I've marked the following locations in the 2nd map. First, I've placed Nichol's body at the red dot. Now, we know that the carmen leave the body and reach PC Mizen in about 4 minutes, and based upon testimony that's about the time PC Neil finds Nichols. We'll call that time T, so at time T PC Neil is at the red dot and the carmen are at PC Mizen (not marked). Ok, at T-4 minutes, that's when Cross/Lechmere and Paul view the body (for say a minute for all their stuff, then 3 minutes to get to PC Mizen).

So, where is PC Neil at T-4, based upon the beat map and his beat patrol speed of 3.0 mph? He's at the solid blue dot heading out of Elizabeth Place and about to turn left and continue north up Queen Anne, away from Buck's Row.

Based upon PC Neil's Patrol speed, when did he exit Buck's row to enter Queen Ann initially? The distance back through Elizabeth Place and then south to Buck's row is 441 feet, which would take about 1 min 36 seconds (so at T -5 m 36s he's at the blue ring with light orange centre).

Where would Cross be 1 min 36 seconds before viewing the body? Well, we've estimated his walking speed at 3.6 mph earlier, and that's 316.8 feet/min. That means the most distant he could be would if all of that time was him walking, which would be 524 feet away (at the green ring with light orange centre). However, we know he waited for Paul to catch up, they had to chat and go over to the body. I've allowed for that to be up to 36 seconds, so if 36 seconds was "waiting for Paul etc" then he would be walking for a minute. So, Cross/Lechmere should be somewhere along the orange section of the indicated travel line.

Note, as this section of his beat seems likely to be shared regardless of the variations concerning Thomas Street, etc, then if the beat is such that he can patrol at the 2.5 mph, then at T-4 he would be at the Q in Queen Ann Street (about 7 buildings from the top end) and heading north, and clearly, with a greater distance to cover to get back in time to when he entered Queen Ann, Cross just ends up even further away. It will take PC Neil 2.6 minutes to re-enter Buck's Row. The carmen are at the body for one of those minutes, and when they pass Queen Ann PC Neil still has not passed Cross Street, and when PC Neil enters Buck's row and turns left, the carmen would be passed Thomas Street and rounding the bend for the last stretch towards Baker's Row.

In other words, at the slowest and the fastest patrol speeds that seem reasonable, PC Neil and the carmen are in locations that miss each other .

- Jeff