Laura Richards knows who the ripper was

[Colin Roberts]

Could the killer have lived at 13 Millers Court off Dorset Street?
Would this be in a "hot" area?

Of course!

The original manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model (unrevised) would suggest that we should perceive a probability of just 23.32% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided in closer 'proximity'¹ to the murder-site mean-center², than did Mary Jane Kelly and Joseph Barnett, during the latter months of 1888.

13 Miller's Court, Dorset Street, Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, therefore, should be perceived as having fallen within the 76th percentile³ of the overall distribution of probability that pertains to the elusive 1888 residence of 'Jack the Ripper'.

¹ i.e. 'proximity' that is based upon elliptical deviation that is proportional to the calculated dimensions of the standard-deviation ellipse; as opposed to absolute deviation, i.e. straight-line distance.

² i.e. the southwest corner of the intersection of Wentworth Street and Osborn Street, in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel.

³ i.e. the 'hottest' 0.19 square-mile area, anywhere.

Now, would any of the decrepit old farts out there, or any of the other know-it-alls that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of geographic criminal profiling, care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I'm not sure which (or both) of these two categories I fall into, but I think it's very likely odds, Colin.

... I agree with Colin's proposition that "we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region."

Thanks, John.

I truly believe that my proposition - i.e. that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888 - is really quite reasonable.

Would anyone care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I for one most certainly challenge it and i am one of those who have no faith in any form of profiling.

You only have to look at the murder locations to see that they are all moments away from major thoroughfares quite easy for the killer to exit Whitechapel by that means

Are you familiar with the American television character Archie Bunker?

I for one most certainly challenge it ...

You only have to look at the murder locations to see that they are all moments away from major thoroughfares quite easy for the killer to exit Whitechapel by that means

Well, then just what degree of chance do you believe that we should perceive?

1-in-4?

1-in-5?

1-in-6?

1-in-7?

1-in-8?

...

Any at all?

... i am one of those who have no faith in any form of profiling.

And, I am one of those - and, I can assure you that there are many - that has no faith, whatsoever, in anything that you have ever written, with regard to the mystery of 'Jack the Ripper'.

Again, ...

... i am one of those who have no faith in any form of profiling.

So, in our quest for the identity of 'Jack the Ripper', we should consider the viability of eight-year-old Negroid females that resided in Brentford, during the latter months of 1888, to be just as great as that of twenty-eight-year-old Caucasoid males that resided in Spitalfields, during the same?

Please think for a moment, before putting your foot in your mouth, while attempting to answer that question.

We all have a natural human tendency to 'profile' the unknown, and that is plainly and simply irrefutable! Period!

Your own (original) suggestion that we should focus our attention on the 'unknown' seafarer was born of a 'profile', whether you are willing to recognize that fact, or not.

Where criminal profiling becomes a fallacy, is in those instances, in which what little information is available is 'milked' for infinitely more than it is worth.

I will be the first to accuse the likes of Kim Rossmo (Criminal Geographic Target), David Canter (Dragnet), and Ned Levine (CrimeStat), of doing just that, with each of their respective proprietary geographic-profile models.

But, should the ideals of the 'art' of criminal geographic profiling be pooh-poohed, simply because its practical realities are such that certain 'players' seem to believe that they can transform it into some sort of quasi 'science', by way of overly intricate and complex modeling?

No! It should not!

And, those that do so are pooh-poohing something that they plainly and simply do not understand.

~~~

I'm sure that you will exhibit your stupidity, yet again, by challenging my next contention: That ...

---


Cumulative Probability Distribution: Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent of Possible Accumulation (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

Color-Shaded Isopleth: Accumulation of Probability Distribution, from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent of Possible Accumulation (Elliptical)
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 1.67
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,181.71 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 838.16 Yards
- Area: 1.00 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Murder-Site 'Population'): 84.42%*
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 50.00%**

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 84.42% would occur within the specified elliptical region, i.e. within 1.67 elliptical Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center.

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical region, should have been 84.42%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 50.00% perceptual probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical region, i.e. within 1.67 elliptical Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center.

The original manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model (unrevised) would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 50.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

¹ As we are dealing with a retrospective 'probability', we must refer to it as being 'perceptual', as opposed to being 'actual'.

---

(Continued, from Above)

(I'm sure that you will exhibit your stupidity, yet again, by challenging my next contention: That ...)

... we should perceive a chance of as much as 1-in-2 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 1.00 square-miles.

Yes! You will!

[Hatchett]

Hi,

Sadly the documentary did not live upto it's blurb and was, in my view, very disappointing.

Best wishes.

[Trevor Marriott]

Hi Helena
That "documentary" was almost as lame as the Mei Trow nonsense. How do these people get on the air?

Totally agree with you Abby

[Abby Normal]

I know this is a five year old story but I have only just found it.

Head of analysis for Scotland Yard's Violent Crime Command Laura Richards

Jack the Ripper's face 'revealed'
An e-fit showing what detectives believe serial killer Jack the Ripper looked like has been revealed.
Using new profiling techniques, investigators have created a picture of what they believe the 19th Century murderer would have looked like.
The man, who evaded police in the 1880s, is thought to have killed and mutilated five London prostitutes.
The Scotland Yard team describe him as "frighteningly normal" but someone capable of "extraordinary cruelty".
And investigators have admitted that police at the time were probably searching for the wrong kind of man.
Head of analysis for Scotland Yard's Violent Crime Command Laura Richards, who has studied serial killer Fred West and Soham murderer Ian Huntley, revisited the case using modern police techniques.
TV documentary
She brought together a team of experts, including pathologists, historians and a geographical profiler, to find out if the case could ever be solved.
The result has been the most accurate physical, geographical and psychological portrait of the Ripper ever put together.
It will be revealed in a documentary on the TV channel Five on Tuesday.
“ This is further than anyone else has got. It would have been enough for coppers to get out and start knocking on doors... they would have got him ”
Metropolitan Police Commander John Grieve
Ms Richards said the 118-year-old evidence shows the Ripper was between the ages of 25 and 35, between 5ft 5ins and 5ft 7ins tall. He was also of stocky build.
Investigators have even been able to pinpoint his address.
Ms Richards said: "For the first time, we are able to understand the kind of person Jack the Ripper was.
"We can name the street where he probably lived; and we can see what he looked like; and we can explain, finally, why this killer eluded justice."
Never caught
Metropolitan Police Commander John Grieve, who has worked with the team of experts, believes the killer would have been caught if officers at the time had this new information.
"This is further than anyone else has got," he said. "It would have been enough for coppers to get out and start knocking on doors... they would have got him."



Did Miss Richards ever give us the address?

Helena

Hi Helena
That "documentary" was almost as lame as the Mei Trow nonsense. How do these people get on the air?

[Fisherman]

Steven Russell:

"How come you Barnettists don't make more of a big deal about Kelly's last meal being fish and potatoes given that Barnett was connected with the fish trade?"

I think that oranges would have been more damning, Steven, given the fact that Barnett had been sacked from Billingsgate Fish Market for a good many weeks when Kelly died, instead resorting to try and hawk fruit.
Anyways, fish was not exactly a rare commodity back then.

The best,
Fisherman

[Trevor Marriott]

Anyone?



Hello?

Here's another depiction of the same probability distribution.


Cumulative Probability Distribution: Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Greatest Deviation, i.e. Mary Ann Nichols Murder-Site (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

As is the case in the first depiction, an elliptical color-shaded isopleth is covering the region, within which an accumulation of 38.18% of the overall distribution is contained.

As is not the case in the first depiction, however, the color-shading entails a blended semi-spectral progression, from red to cyan, i.e. from 0˚ to 180˚, of the isopleth's hue; ... as opposed to a desaturation progression of the isopleth's chosen color, i.e. red.

The blended semi-spectral progression of the isopleth's hue, in this instance, creates the effect of a 'cooling' progression, from red, i.e. relatively 'hot', to cyan, i.e. relatively 'cold'. This effect lends itself to the use of the term 'heat map', in describing this sort of depiction.

Each of the two images, is intended to depict a desaturation progression of the overall probability distribution's density, within a single interval of distribution accumulation, i.e. 0.00% -to- 38.18%.

In other words, each of the two images is intended to depict an elliptical isopleth that covers the smallest region, within which 38.18 percentage points of the overall distribution of probability can be accumulated; that being a region, within which the density of the accumulation is greatest at its center (red), ... and least at its periphery (cyan).

The latter of the two images, however, is probably the better depiction of that particular quality of the given accumulation of the overall distribution of probability: i.e. that the density of the accumulation is greatest at its center (red), ... and least at its periphery (cyan).

~~~

In any case, the original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest that we should perceive a probability of 38.18% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888; ... an inherent implication being that within the limitations of this degree of perceptual probability, i.e. 38.18%, we should consider the center of the elliptical region to have been the 'most likely' place of residence, whilst considering its periphery to have been the 'least likely'.

~~~

There are quite a few posters out there that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of criminal profiling.

I have read numerous assertions to the effect 'profiling is nonsense', as well as a multitude of proclamations to the effect 'I don't believe in profiling'.

So, again, ...

Would anyone care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I for one most certainly challenge it and i am one of those who have no faith in any form of profiling.

You only have to look at the murder locations to see that they are all moments away from major thoroughfares quite easy for the killer to exit Whitechapel by that means

[Heinrich]

Heinrich: How come you Barnettists don't make more of a big deal about Kelly's last meal being fish and potatoes given that Barnett was connected with the fish trade?

I do believe you are onto something there, Steven.

[John Bennett]

Well, what I meant was that I agree with Colin's proposition that "we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region."

[Garza]

I'm not sure which (or both) of these two categories I fall into, but I think it's very likely odds, Colin.

JB

If by "odds" you mean how likely or unlikely a given hypothesis is, then yes, but that is what statistical analysis is about and it is the backbone of the modern scientific method.

Statistical Analysis is compiling the known data and determining how likely/unlikey of a certain outcome, it cannot give us a definitive answer. But it can seperate coincidances from very likely NOT coincidances and it is the only way to determine a fact from a pile of data. It in other words it links correlation with causation.

In science the standard measure is 5%.

If for example I want to find if mice have started to eat a certain species of bird egg, if the data I collect shows that this hypothesis has less than 5% chance of being a coincidance, then I take it as statistically significant and my hypothesis is correct.

Of course it could be a coincidance and the data could be showing something that isn't there, but it is very unlikely.

Some people think statistics is all guesswork, it really isn't.

[richardnunweek]

Hi,
How about this for a twist, what if we have the wrong Barnett,?
It is true, is it not, that Joe Barnett's brother Dan still held a fish porters licence, and what's more was seen drinking with Mary on the evening of the 8TH., I therefore ask the question, was it he that supplied Kelly with the fish , if so when? it is also worth stating that he lived at the Victoria home, alongside Kelly's ex beau Fleming , and chief witness Hutchinson.
I wonder if the police interviewed Daniel Barnett?
Regards Richard.

[John Bennett]

Now, would any of the decrepit old farts out there, or any of the other know-it-alls that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of geographic criminal profiling, care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I'm not sure which (or both) of these two categories I fall into, but I think it's very likely odds, Colin.

JB

[Steven Russell]

Heinrich: How come you Barnettists don't make more of a big deal about Kelly's last meal being fish and potatoes given that Barnett was connected with the fish trade?

Best wishes,
Steve.

[Heinrich]

Could the killer have lived at 13 Millers Court off Dorset Street?
Would this be in a "hot" area?

[Colin Roberts]

My Geographic Profile Model is undergoing a great deal of revision; ...


Cumulative Probability Distribution: Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Greatest Deviation, i.e. Mary Ann Nichols Murder-Site (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

...

... but, I will continue to call upon its original manifestation, for the time being.

My model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 38.18% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the red color-shaded ellipse, during the latter months of 1888.

¹ As we dealing with a retrospective 'probability', we must refer to it as being 'perceptual', as opposed to being 'actual'.

As for actual probability; there is a 100.00% probability that 'Jack the Ripper' resided where he resided, and a 0.00% probability that he resided anywhere else.

He resided where he resided!

But, we shouldn't be at all reluctant to perceive certain degrees of probability, with regard to just where that happened to be.

~~~

Now, would any of the decrepit old farts out there, or any of the other know-it-alls that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of geographic criminal profiling, care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

Anyone?



Hello?

Here's another depiction of the same probability distribution.


Cumulative Probability Distribution: Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Greatest Deviation, i.e. Mary Ann Nichols Murder-Site (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

As is the case in the first depiction, an elliptical color-shaded isopleth is covering the region, within which an accumulation of 38.18% of the overall distribution is contained.

As is not the case in the first depiction, however, the color-shading entails a blended semi-spectral progression, from red to cyan, i.e. from 0˚ to 180˚, of the isopleth's hue; ... as opposed to a desaturation progression of the isopleth's chosen color, i.e. red.

The blended semi-spectral progression of the isopleth's hue, in this instance, creates the effect of a 'cooling' progression, from red, i.e. relatively 'hot', to cyan, i.e. relatively 'cold'. This effect lends itself to the use of the term 'heat map', in describing this sort of depiction.

Each of the two images, is intended to depict a desaturation progression of the overall probability distribution's density, within a single interval of distribution accumulation, i.e. 0.00% -to- 38.18%.

In other words, each of the two images is intended to depict an elliptical isopleth that covers the smallest region, within which 38.18 percentage points of the overall distribution of probability can be accumulated; that being a region, within which the density of the accumulation is greatest at its center (red), ... and least at its periphery (cyan).

The latter of the two images, however, is probably the better depiction of that particular quality of the given accumulation of the overall distribution of probability: i.e. that the density of the accumulation is greatest at its center (red), ... and least at its periphery (cyan).

~~~

In any case, the original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest that we should perceive a probability of 38.18% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888; ... an inherent implication being that within the limitations of this degree of perceptual probability, i.e. 38.18%, we should consider the center of the elliptical region to have been the 'most likely' place of residence, whilst considering its periphery to have been the 'least likely'.

~~~

There are quite a few posters out there that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of criminal profiling.

I have read numerous assertions to the effect 'profiling is nonsense', as well as a multitude of proclamations to the effect 'I don't believe in profiling'.

So, again, ...

Would anyone care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

[Colin Roberts]

What color would 24 New Street, Bishopsgate be on this map, I wonder.

I thought that smart serial killers tend to live outside or at the periphery of their area of operation, not at the epicentre (Peter Sutcliffe for example). Also, am I missing something but why does Elizabeth Stride not seem to be influencing the distribution of the isopleths on this map?

Please bear in mind, the fact that this probability distribution ...


Hypothetical Probability Distribution (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

... is hypothetical.

This distribution, on the other hand, ...


Cumulative Probability Distribution: Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Greatest Deviation, i.e. Mary Ann Nichols Murder-Site (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

... - while in need of some revision - is based upon an actual statistical analysis of the manner, in which the six murder-sites under consideration are dispersed, in relation to the murder-site mean-center (green dot).

... why does Elizabeth Stride not seem to be influencing the distribution of the isopleths on this map?

The Stride murder-site has not been assigned a reduced weighting, in either instance.

It simply happens to be somewhat of an 'outlier'. As does the Nichols murder-site.

I thought that smart serial killers tend to live outside or at the periphery of their area of operation, not at the epicentre (Peter Sutcliffe for example).

It is generally believed that a serial offender is most likely to be found residing within his area of operation.

However, in the case of 'Jack the Ripper', we are dealing with an unusually small 'killing field' that was easily traversable on foot, in 1888; as it continues to be, to this day.

Contrary to a widely held misconception, within the field of 'Ripperology', this set of circumstances actually accommodates a greater possibility that 'Jack the Ripper' resided outside of the observed parameters of his killing-field, during the latter months of 1888.

~~~

An Off-Topic Note:

Forgive me if the answer to what I'm asking is already established and also if I'm posting in the wrong thread but this is my first post and there's an awful lot of material in these message boards to wade through. My question is, does anyone know for certain the exact location of the entrance to Dutfield's Yard? I have spent some time recently wandering around what was Berner Street and on the East side there is only one three storey building that looks as if it may date from the 1888 period. Although it looks quite similar to the one shown in the 1909 picture (the IWEC) and the contemporary artists impressions it clearly had another similar building standing on its left as you look at it which has now been demolished so it can't be. Also there are decorative courses of blue bricks set into the red which don't show up in the 1909 photograph. My best guess is that the IWEC must have been more or less where the North end of Basil House is now IF it was on the East side of the street. Can anyone enlighten me?

We all seem to have ignored your first Casebook post, which you made some thirty days ago.

I would have gladly answered such a simple question, had I seen the post.


Northwestern Corner of Fairclough Street / Berner Street, Parish of St. George in the East (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)