Your top 3 suspects?

[Chris]

SB

Just curious about your comments about Sephardic versus Ashkenazi Jews. Why do you think a Sephardic Jew would be a more likely candidate?

[Tom_Wescott]

My personal top three suspects would be as below.

1. Druitt

2. Kosminski

3. Any viable suspect that Tom Wescott comes up with. I've got a lot of faith in Tom.

Wow, that's awesome, Dylan. Thanks. I just last night typed your name into the acknowledgements of an essay I'm finishing up.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

First Choice:

- Male
- Age: 24-to-48
- Charles Booth's Socio-Economic Class*: 'C' - 'F'
- Gentile
- Resided within one 'Standard Deviation' of the murder-site 'Mean-Center' (Red)**

Second Choice:

- Male
- Age: 21-to-51
- Charles Booth's Socio-Economic Class*: 'B' - 'G'
- Gentile or Sephardic Jew
- Resided within two 'Standard Deviations' of the murder-site 'Mean-Center' (Red/Orange)**

Third Choice:

- Male
- Age: 18-to-54
- Charles Booth's Socio-Economic Class*: 'A' - 'H'
- Gentile, Sephardic Jew, or perhaps Ashkenazi Jew
- Resided within three 'Standard Deviations' of the murder-site 'Mean-Center' (Red/Orange/Yellow)**

---------

* Charles Booth's delineations of socio-economic classification …

"In Poverty":

Class 'A': "Vicious" (i.e. vice-ridden); "Semi-Criminal"
Class 'B': "Very Poor"
Class 'C': "Poor" - Irregular Income
Class 'D': "Poor" - Regular but Inadequate Income

"In Comfort":

Class 'E': "Above the 'Line of Poverty'" - Regular "Standard" Income
Class 'F': "Highly Skilled Labour"
Class 'G': "Lower Middle-Class"
Class 'H': "Upper Middle-Class"

---------

** ...


Cumulative Probability Distribution (0.00 - 3.00 Standard Deviations) (Elliptical) (Click to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

Red: 0.00 - 1.00 Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center
Semi-Major Axis (i.e. 'Long Radius'): 707.53 Yards
Semi-Minor Axis (i.e. 'Short Radius'): 501.83 Yards
Area: 0.36 Square Miles
Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 63.68% *
Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 31.84% **

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 63.68% would occur within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 1.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of the impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical area, should have been 63.68%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 31.84% probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 1.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

Red / Orange: 0.00 - 2.00 Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center
Semi-Major Axis (i.e. 'Long Radius'): 1,415.06 Yards
Semi-Minor Axis (i.e. 'Short Radius'): 1,003.67 Yards
Area: 1.44 Square Miles
Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 89.80% *
Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 57.60% **

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 89.80% would occur within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 2.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of the impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical area, should have been 89.80%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 57.60% probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 2.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

Red / Orange / Yellow: 0.00 - 3.00 Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center
Semi-Major Axis (i.e. 'Long Radius'): 2,122.58 Yards
Semi-Minor Axis (i.e. 'Short Radius'): 1,505.50 Yards
Area: 3.24 Square Miles
Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 97.00% *
Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Geographic Profile Model): 75.12% **

* Given a perception of late November 1888 that this series of murders would continue ad infinitum; the expectation should have been that 97.00% would occur within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 3.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of the impending subsequent murder occurring within this elliptical area, should have been 97.00%.

** My Geographic Profile Model would suggest a 75.12% probability that the perpetrator(s) of these crimes operated from a base that was situated within the specified elliptical area, i.e. within 3.00 Standard Deviations of the murder-site Mean-Center (green dot).

---------

Weighing-In the 'Suspects'

I am 'jumping ahead' of my own presentation, but feel that the following 'quoted' analysis is best-suited for this thread.

In a 'nutshell' ...

- Robert Mann (Whitechapel Union Infirmary): 70th Percentile

- Robert Mann (Whitechapel Union Infirmary Mortuary): 76th Percentile

- Aaron Kosminski (34 Yalford Street): 78th Percentile

- George Hutchinson & Joseph Fleming (aka 'James Evans') (Victoria Home for Working Men): 89th Percentile

- John Simmonds (60 Wentworth Street): 95th Percentile

I am still in the process of compiling my "Informal Presentation". The following analysis will therefore require some clarification/explanation. So, ask questions, folks: … I will try to answer them.


Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical Perspective) (Click to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

From the outside, in …

...

[DVV]

Toppy?

Hi Garry,

Toppy's list would be interesting.
At least, we know who is on the top!

Amitiés,
David

edit : you think the "7" is a "1", Ben ? Hmmm...

[DVV]

Hi Ben,

what about "160 years" ? Same pen ?

Amitiés,
David

[spyglass]

top three suspects

I certainly have a top three who JTR was'nt

1. Chapman

2. Ostrog

3. Cohen

[Stephen Thomas]

Or perhaps SWANSON stating "KOSMINSKI WAS THE NAME"?

Or something to that effect with a different pencil.

[Garry Wroe]

Toppy?

[Ben]

Hi David,

On the subject of Fleming's height, I admit to being somewhat troubled by the revelation that the information was committed to paper not by a registrar, as I had suspected initially, but by one of the examining doctors - Patterson or White, I can't recall which. Since the doctor in question would undoubtedly have recorded his own observations, it's difficult to see how an error could have been made, or more specifically, how a "6" could possibly have entered into the equation if Fleming's real height was only 5"7. I begin to wonder now if the entry was supposed to read 6"1.

What think ye?

Regardless, Joseph Fleming is still comfortably second on my list of three...then a long sea mile...then possibly Kosminski or Bury depending on my mood. No prizes for guessing my preference for the top spot.

All the best,
Ben

[Steve S]

1) Kosminski/Cohen
2) Bury
3)Un-named Local

For what it's worth,I think the bit often overlooked in MacNaughten is 'Any of whom would be more likely'...Bearing in mind the reason the Memorandum was written,I don't think he did much research....Probably just asked around..'Who do you think it might have been?'...And put three down........

[j.r-ahde]

Hello you all!


I will add mine;

1. A common man, unidentified to the LVP police officials and us!

And very, very far behind;

2. A wanna-be-doctor.

Even further behind;

3. A twisted police official.

However, I am open-minded to any seriously presented views to this question!

All the best
Jukka

[DYLAN]

Hi all.

My personal top three suspects would be as below.

1. Druitt

2. Kosminski

3. Any viable suspect that Tom Wescott comes up with. I've got a lot of faith in Tom.

Best regards all.

DYLAN

[Jeff Leahy]

My thoughts on the Macnaghten Three:

Kosminski- He is the best of the Macnaghten suspects, but let's face it, someone so mentally defective that he was known to wander the streets eating garbage he picked out of the gutters is not someone who could have charmed the women enough to get them to come away with him and not be afraid of him. And I really wish we had any kind of physical description of him, to see how it might match the witness descriptions of the Ripper. I remember a thread once debating how, as a Jew, he did or didn't have a beard. No one seemed to know. Early in my education as a Ripperologist I thought he was the man, but I have long since changed my mind.

Sorry, but I think the Macnaghten memoranda is wrong on all points.

Hi kensie, it has been agreed by most experts I have spoken to that Aaron was most probably suffering a form of Schizophrenia. His age in 1888 being 22, is fairly typical of the conditions progress.

Schizophrenia does not just happen, it comes in waves typically covering 12-16 week periods known as Psychotic episodes. The gap between attacks can vary a lot between individuals. But usually the psychotic episodes, if untreated, increase in severity and regularity. This can create the illusion for periods of time that the sufferer has returned to comparative normality.

In the early stages of psychotic episodes the patient is far more coherant, over a ten, fifteen year period they reach a period today refered to as 'Burn Out' where they are just cut off from reality.

So my expert advice is that it is quite possible Aaron had long periods unaffected by the illness between 1888 and 1891. It is of course impossible to be precise but the possibility, none the less, remains.

Pirate

[DVV]

2) Fisherman

Hi Dave,

don't say so. Fish is a nice person.
Hope he will soon be back with an unshakeable alibi.

Amitiés,
David

[DirectorDave]

I have no real preference as to who the whitechapel murderer was with regard to the known suspects. A couple of suspects interest me at the moment but probably because I think they were not Jack the Ripper but do think they are interesting characters (Tumblelty & Druitt).

As for type of person I think 3 of the following is possible.

1) A policeman.

2) A Sailor/Fisherman

3) Local Irish/Jewish man who worked locally with knives.