Time Pattern of the Killings

[Errata]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before in the forums, but has anyone ever thought about the pattern that seems to emerge with the murders? It seems like JTR prefers to kill at the beginning and end of each month starting in August through November. Now, granted. the dates don't match up exactly apart, but they are pretty darn close. For the sake of argument, we have to assume that Martha Tabram is a Ripper victim, but if we do, we see the pattern.

Murders occuring in the beginning of the month.

1. Martha Tabram-murdered 7 August 1888

2. Annie Chapman-murdered 8 September 1888

3. Mary Kelly-murdered 9 November 1888

Murders occuring at the end of the month

1. Mary Ann Nichols-murdered 31 August 1888

2. Elizabeth Stride (?)/Catherine Eddowes-30 September 1888

Now, I know what immediatedly everyone will notice. There are no murders in October; hence, no pattern. However, perhaps the killer was not in London at that time or decided to take a break because the heat was turned up by the press/police after the double homicide. And, in November, he just decided to pick up where he left off. It is interesting to note the killings that take place in the early times of the month follow a sequential order (7, 8, & 9) and the murders at the end of the month are practically exactly one month apart. Does this mean anything? If so, what? Also, does the pattern show us when his bloodlust was heightened and cooled (beginning and end of each month) Even if there is no pattern, it is still pretty interesting.

He might double up in September to make up for not being in town or something in October. And then come back to a beginning of the month schedule in November to make up for the long absence.

[Rosella]

Yes, that pattern is interesting and I've noticed it before. I've wondered whether perhaps it had to do with any relatives he was lodging with being away towards the endings of those months and the beginning of the next, giving him a clear run if he wanted to get home, deposit any souvenirs and clean up before work that morning. They might also have been away on long weekends like bank holiday times. Buying/selling outside of London perhaps?

The break in October could have had any number of reasons couldn't it? Further patrols in the wake of the double murders by police and vigilante groups, illness, the prostitutes of Whitechapel more on edge and suspicious, a lengthy foggy patch in mid month, the people at his lodgings being around all the time, anything really.

There's a page here on Casebook that gives weather and sun and moon risings etc on the dates of the murders and I don't think any of them were bright moonlit nights, not that you would get that with the amount of pollution in the London air, anyway.

[Pcdunn]

This is a random thought, but in keeping with the Jewish suspect theory-- what were the Jewish holy days in October? Anything that might have influenced the Ripper's apparent lull?

[Wickerman]

I have just been looking up memoires of my great uncle Henry Cox. I cant find the bit I was looking for but I am certain it would have been put on the Ripper Wiki by Chris Phillips. I know Henry mentioned that there could be a connection with the dates of the murders. He also seemed to think that the man they followed was widely thought (by him and his colleagues) to have been Jack.
What a pity he wasn't more explicit !
Pat......

It's likely a fair bet that there was a fraternity of officers, detectives and constables who, at one time or another, all claimed to have been "on the right track".
It's probably just as likely that all their suspects looked quite different.

[Paddy]

To Wickerman

It's likely a fair bet that there was a fraternity of officers, detectives and constables who, at one time or another, all claimed to have been "on the right track".
It's probably just as likely that all their suspects looked quite different.

How True !

Pat......

[Errata]

This is a random thought, but in keeping with the Jewish suspect theory-- what were the Jewish holy days in October? Anything that might have influenced the Ripper's apparent lull?

Simchat Torah is somewhere in October usually, but it's kind of a nothing holiday. Certainly the observance of it would require no more than a day off work for the devout. Just a small do where they roll the Torah back to the beginning.

Sukkot also sometimes falls in October, but its a harvest festival and also having no tradition that would last for a month, nor is a holiday that requires again, much more than a day off work for the devout.

[Charles Daniels]

Not terribly helpful, but I'll chip in some thoughts

Okay

Aug 7 was a Tuesday

Sept 8 was a Saturday

Oct 9th (missed date in this pattern) was a Tuesday

Nov 9th was a Friday


So maybe Tuesday October 9th just wasn't a great night and a bit inconvenient for his activities.

Or maybe he tried Tuesday before, back in August and he had a bit more spot of bother and thought "From now on I'm sticking to weekends."

I really don't know. But it gives me some question marks over Tabram

[richardnunweek]

Hi,
I started the 'Thirty nine theory '' years ago. , it was dismissed as pure numerology .
Starting with Martha Tabram's 39 stab wounds, the rest followed into the pattern, even ending with 26, Dorset street., room 13 .
But like all speculation it was dismissed.
Regards Richard.

[Charles Daniels]

Hi,
I started the 'Thirty nine theory '' years ago. , it was dismissed as pure numerology .
Starting with Martha Tabram's 39 stab wounds, the rest followed into the pattern, even ending with 26, Dorset street., room 13 .
But like all speculation it was dismissed.
Regards Richard.

Hello Richard,

I think one key reason that people become sceptical of numerology is that the source of the numbers, even within a single theory, keep changing.

For instance, if you a series of victims and each one was stabbed 39 times, I think most people would agree to a pattern.

If each of the victims lived at 39 SuchandSuch Street, again most would concede you should take extra caution if your address happened to be 39 something.

Most numerology arguments tend to go -

The first victim was stabbed 39 times, the second victim was 20 and the third victim was 19, the fourth victim lived 3.9 miles away from the other victims, and the fifth victim was £1.95 behind on their rent which is 39x5 (five for the fifth victim), the sixth victim was murdered on the 39 hours after the fifth victim...

And so on and so on.

It becomes difficult for people to imagine a killer, or anybody, thinking of things this way and having all these facts at hand.

Even if a numerological argument is less elaborate, people tend to dismiss them much as they do conspiracy theories.

However, the existence of numerology does prove, if nothing else, that SOME people do think of numbers in this way and DO allow these numbers to guide or influence their actions.

[Fantomas]

I doubt the the nights of the killing were bright moonlit nights.

Good point.

All the dates fall on either no moon (new moon) or quarter moon-into-new-moon.

Records viewable here:

https://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/?year=1888&country=9

All these murders took place in darkness and in the opposite of bright, moonlit nights.

Now. If we go the (slightly misogynist) theory that the killer was a pre menstrual woman or man motivated by hunting out menstruating women, the lunar cycle is not insignificant.

[Michael W Richards]

Since the likelihood is that 1 killer can be linked with only 3 Canonical Murders, by the circumstantial and physical evidence, looking for patterns using 6 murders is an exercise in futility. The 3 murders I refer to are Polly Nichols....soliciting for doss money when she met her killer, double throat cut, abdominal wounds,...Annie Chapman, soliciting for doss money when she met her killer, double throat cut, abdominal wounds, and Kate Eddowes, possibly soliciting when she met her killer, double throat cut, abdominal wounds. Mary Kelly was of course at home in bed, and Liz was apparently not soliciting but in Berner Street for some other purpose, and, obviously, she is missing ALL the relevant injuries.

People have been forever grouping these victims and looking at moon phases, days and weeks of the month of the murders, the fact that they were unfortunates, mere throat cuts, as a way of establishing some pattern that might reveal what went on here.

Perhaps police work might help enlighten those people, because discovering MOTIVE is what leads to criminals. the motive for killing the 3 women I mentioned seems to have been to kill and mutilate. We have no idea why Mary was killed, nor do we have any idea why Liz was killed.

[Fisherman]

Since the likelihood is that 1 killer can be linked with only 3 Canonical Murders, by the circumstantial and physical evidence, looking for patterns using 6 murders is an exercise in futility. The 3 murders I refer to are Polly Nichols....soliciting for doss money when she met her killer, double throat cut, abdominal wounds,...Annie Chapman, soliciting for doss money when she met her killer, double throat cut, abdominal wounds, and Kate Eddowes, possibly soliciting when she met her killer, double throat cut, abdominal wounds. Mary Kelly was of course at home in bed, and Liz was apparently not soliciting but in Berner Street for some other purpose, and, obviously, she is missing ALL the relevant injuries.

People have been forever grouping these victims and looking at moon phases, days and weeks of the month of the murders, the fact that they were unfortunates, mere throat cuts, as a way of establishing some pattern that might reveal what went on here.

Perhaps police work might help enlighten those people, because discovering MOTIVE is what leads to criminals. the motive for killing the 3 women I mentioned seems to have been to kill and mutilate. We have no idea why Mary was killed, nor do we have any idea why Liz was killed.

I have an idea why Mary Kelly was killed. I also have an idea why Annie Chapman was killed.
Oddly, they both had their abdominal walls completely cut away in 3 (Kelly) and 4 (Chapman) large pieces of skin with subcutaneous tissue attaching. To me, this puts it well beyond doubt that they had the same killer.

I know that I have mentioned this before, but it very much belongs to the picture - extremely rare damage like this is exactly how we can tie victims together.

[Sam Flynn]

Perhaps police work might help enlighten those people, because discovering MOTIVE is what leads to criminals. the motive for killing the 3 women I mentioned seems to have been to kill and mutilate. We have no idea why Mary was killed, nor do we have any idea why Liz was killed.

Well, Mary was killed and mutilated after all. Liz is an entirely different matter - she died a death whose characteristics bear close comparison with several other victims in LVP Whitechapel, none of whom are now seriously ascribed to Jack the Ripper.

If there is a common pattern, it's that all the victims - whether Jack's or not - seem to have been relatively "soft targets". Of course, this tells us a lot about the victims, and precious little about the murderers themselves.

[DJA]

I have an idea why Mary Kelly was killed. I also have an idea why Annie Chapman was killed.
Oddly, they both had their abdominal walls completely cut away in 3 (Kelly) and 4 (Chapman) large pieces of skin with subcutaneous tissue attaching. To me, this puts it well beyond doubt that they had the same killer.

I know that I have mentioned this before, but it very much belongs to the picture - extremely rare damage like this is exactly how we can tie victims together.

Yep.

Liz was not cut open as her condition was hereditary and of little interest to Jack.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hereditary_hemorrhagic_telangiectasia#/media/File:Case_115.jpg

[Michael W Richards]

I have an idea why Mary Kelly was killed. I also have an idea why Annie Chapman was killed.
Oddly, they both had their abdominal walls completely cut away in 3 (Kelly) and 4 (Chapman) large pieces of skin with subcutaneous tissue attaching. To me, this puts it well beyond doubt that they had the same killer.

I know that I have mentioned this before, but it very much belongs to the picture - extremely rare damage like this is exactly how we can tie victims together.

Perhaps if there had been no Polly Nichols you might have a point Fish, but Annies murder is by far more easily connected with Annie than Marys is. Apart from the obvious differing locale, injuries and age, we know of a possible motive with Mary. there is no such evidence with Annie...she was randomly selected, just like Polly.