Geoprofile of Jack the Ripper reveals Tabram and Nichols connection.

[Sam Flynn]

Why would a perp living in Limehouse travel all the way to Whitechapel, Spitalfields, the City and STGITE when there were plenty of 'unfortunates' closer to hand?

Indeed. There were quite as many unfortunates available out Limehouse and Poplar way as there were in Whitechapel and its immediate environs, and not all of them would necessarily have had "bullies" watching their backs.

[Sam Flynn]

wasn't Chapman's connection to the West India Dock Road?

Yes, it was. He was there for some 5 months in 1888 when he worked with Mr and Mrs Radin.

[MrBarnett]

Indeed. There were quite as many unfortunates available out Limehouse and Poplar way as there were in Whitechapel and its immediate environs, and not all of them would necessarily have had "bullies" watching their backs.

You're right, Sam, they wouldn't all have had bullies or strong local ties. But there would have been far more women with no real support network in Spitalfields and Whitechapel than down by the docks. More vulnerable women there, I'd have thought.

[Observer]

I have yet to see you provide a valid criticism of this thread except to just subjectively dismiss it and talk about jam instead and try to demean me (calling me bait man). I don't think you have anything to offer as critic that already hasn't been defeated.

Are you are one of those who think Smith and Tabram aren't sexual assaults and sexual homicides? Want to try and argue that?

You can dismiss that it is linked to JtR but the Geographic profile combined with what we know about the lives of the C5 and these two others plus location, timing, chronological escalation and learning of the offender, fits like a glove.

So what's your point?

Another big coincidence claim to sell to me?

Just saw this, as it slipped past me, but will reply now.

Regarding Geographic profiling you got it in one, it's pure coincidence if this method of detection happens to yield any kind of success. I believe your "hot spot" points to the possibility that JTR lived in the vicinity of Flower and Dean Street. The trouble is Kelly lived a stones throw from this location, and I doubt that the killer would have struck that close to home. Herein lies the problem with Geo profiling, that is, trying to squeeze in a location for a potential site where the murderer in question may live. As stated above it doesn't work with the series of murders committed in Whitechapel in 1888.

I am most certainly of the opinion that Smith was not a sexually orientated murder. By her own testimony she revealed that she had been assaulted by more than one individual. You have in the past accused posters of cherry picking evidence to support their own particular theory. low and behold what do we find here from you? Smith was telling lies. In reality she was murdered by a lone assassin. And listen to this, because lies were told with regard to the Tabram murder, Smith also told lies! Get a grip man, do you realise what you are saying here? Also I've been meaning to ask what were the lies which were told with regard to the Tabram murder?

Lets talk about double standards. In your opinion Long could not have possibly missed that apron piece in Goulston Street at 2:20 a.m. He's the paragon of virtue when it comes to providing crucial evidence. However, when it comes to Smith you have no problem with disregarding the words which came from her own mouth, this to support your claim she was the victim of a lone assassin, possibly JTR.

With regard to me calling you Bait Man, the truth is I was using my mobile phone at the time, and predictive text rendered it thus. However, many a true word spoken in predictive text.

[Batman]

Ah, so the killer could have come from anywhere and killed where he did because that's where he could find his preferred type of victim?

All very interesting (no irony), but did we need geoprofiling to tell us that?

I hate to be a pedant, but you do get so many small details wrong. For instance, you give us 2 last known addresses for Polly Nichols, neither of which is the one that appeared on her death cert. You call the White House a pub and you talk about the East Indian Dock Road. It's East India, not Indian and wasn't Chapman's connection to the West India Dock Road? I may be wrong about that, I don't know much about the chap.

The original old map is not mine. I did the geographic profile over it.

The original old map has those places listed at the bottom of the map. Have a look.

So I gave the information that was on the original map.

If we correct stuff, from there on in, fine, but it doesn't change too much at all and we have expanded on it considerably with Smith.

[Observer]

Just a point here. Neither Smith or Tabram is actually part of the geographic profile formula. It is only based on the C5. They enter the picture because of the hot zone landing on them as a result of the formula derived from the other C5. Basically, C5 geographic profile gives us Smith, Tabram and Nichols.

With a geographic profile, one expects to find a zone where there is nothing happening at all. That is because the offender doesn't poop where they eat, so to speak. They radiate out from this point to avoid being identified. This means the hot zone should be able to identify them in principle but all of this is just based on probabilities and may be quite wrong... but quite right too, so we go look which is how to deal with it.

In this case, a very strange thing has happened. The hot zone, isn't devoid of interests. The hot zone, gives us...

• Satchell’s lodging House, last addr. Of Martha Tabram.
• Willmott’s lodging House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
• White House, Public House, last addr. Of Mary Anne Nichols.
• Frying pan, Public House

So it gives us Tabram and Nichols. Just off from the hotzone is the murder area of Tabram. Close to this is Smith residence and her claim of place of attack.

None of these should be appearing in the hotzone.

There are two models to explain things.

Maruader model.

Commuter model.

In both of these models one doesn't expect to find anything at the hot zone.

Yet we have victim places of abode, homicides and attacks. This is a big clue. A lead.

So in the Maruader model because everything radiates out from this area, we have to conclude that all these initial attacks in this area are JtR pooping where he eats and having to start operating away from this zone to draw attention away from himself.

The JtR series appears to open close to the hotzone (Tabram/Smith).
It appears to end close to the hotzone (Kelly).

This seems like he radiated out because it was too close to home and then stopped when he got too close to home again.

The commuter model tells us that when he arrived at the hot zone he assaulted and murdered there, but then returns to this exact same spot and radiates outwards to murder away from this zone. An example would be a train station. The commuter gets off the train and kills near the train station. They still take a train to the same station but they then radiate outwards from the station rather than murder there again. That's the commuter model.

So say someone was living in... oh East Indian Dock Rd., they could be commuting to the hotzone by foot. Why the hotzone? Because that is where their clients might be inclined to point to where they live because its a place they can meet them again. It's also not as if they can't be followed home. Anyway, it appears that JtR, if commuting, knew about the hot zone and used it.

The dropping of the apron piece and the GSG suggest Marauder model.

The above post is a prime example as to why we should take Geo Profiling with a large pinch of salt

[Batman]

Doesn't the activity you found within/close to the hot zone suggest that the Smith and Tabram murders were not committed by the C5 murderer (if the theory holds). If they are implicated, should they not be included within the geoprofiling - in which case the hot zone will change?

You can do this, however, geoprofiling isn't supposed to have a hotzone land on anything like this at all.

Imagine if we had a C4 and we were uncertain about Nichols and the hotzone landed on Nichols.

That indicates Nichols was a victim and the perp likely lived nearby.

What this all indicates is that we have closed in on his first crimes. The most important ones to investigate of all.

[Batman]

Originally Posted by MrBarnett View Post
wasn't Chapman's connection to the West India Dock Road?

Yes, it was. He was there for some 5 months in 1888 when he worked with Mr and Mrs Radin.

Don't forget to mention Chapman was out partying the night Tabram was murdered on a Bank Holiday.

Smith was assaulted on a Bank Holiday.

Bank Holiday indicates prostitutes will go down to the docks on the West India Road.

[Batman]

Just saw this, as it slipped past me, but will reply now.

Regarding Geographic profiling you got it in one, it's pure coincidence if this method of detection happens to yield any kind of success.

The same formula with some modifications are used for DNA dragnets and for viral spreadings, like Ebola.

You have a choice. Pins on a map as per police procedure and GUESS or pins on a map with added mathematics to help your guess. When you have a few tens of thousands to spend on DNA dragnetting you can bet using this formula gives you a better reason to dragnet specific areas than GUESSING to spend that money. Geoprofiles take in evidence also.

I believe your "hot spot" points to the possibility that JTR lived in the vicinity of Flower and Dean Street.

Of course, it does or else you have the added coincidence of needing the claim the dropped apron piece being in line with it is just a coincidence too.

The trouble is Kelly lived a stones throw from this location, and I doubt that the killer would have struck that close to home. Herein lies the problem with Geo profiling, that is, trying to squeeze in a location for a potential site where the murderer in question may live. As stated above it doesn't work with the series of murders committed in Whitechapel in 1888.

It works with Whitechapel in 1888 because no offender is aware of geoprofiling at that time. That took 100 years later approx. The fact it is hitting on this particular hot zone is no coincidence and MJK was the 'last' major attack. We have examples of serial killers that killed close to their homes like this so your doubt can be matched against the historical evidence for it happening. Tabram's murder scene was close to the hot zone (she actually isn't directly in the red hot zone but slightly under it).

I am most certainly of the opinion that Smith was not a sexually orientated murder. By her own testimony she revealed that she had been assaulted by more than one individual.

Let's see what Corner Wynn Baxter has to say.

"barbarously murdered" and opined that it was "impossible to imagine a more brutal and dastardly assault,"

That's a homicide. It notes that Whitechapel was not this violent. It indicates it was a unique attack. He even lays down a challenge to JtR.

This indicates we are looking at a rare type of murder, which is what Sexual Homicides are. Given we have a cluster attacker going on with this rare type of crime (Smith, Tabram) it has all the indicators of a Lust Murderer on the loose who must be stopped or else they will likely continue. If Smith was found today, this would be the #1 reason to catch her perp.

You have in the past accused posters of cherry picking evidence to support their own particular theory. low and behold what do we find here from you? Smith was telling lies. In reality she was murdered by a lone assassin. And listen to this, because lies were told with regard to the Tabram murder, Smith also told lies! Get a grip man, do you realise what you are saying here? Also I've been meaning to ask what were the lies which were told with regard to the Tabram murder? Lets talk about double standards. In your opinion Long could not have possibly missed that apron piece in Goulston Street at 2:20 a.m. He's the paragon of virtue when it comes to providing crucial evidence. However, when it comes to Smith you have no problem with disregarding the words which came from her own mouth, this to support your claim she was the victim of a lone assassin, possibly JTR.

I am sure if you read this thread you will come across what we have to say about the truthfulness of Connelly. There is no cherry picking of facts. What we have are many questions and facts that put Connelly and Smiths account in doubt. There is nothing to doubt Long. Saying Long missed it, isn't the same as pointing out that no one saw Smith or Connelly in very public places with lots of missing time, no blood was found for Smith, some investigators doubted Smith's story, including Walter Dew. Is he cherry picking too? John G outlined some matters. Very far away from the type of argument that Long missed it.

All you have ended up doing is calling the hot zone a coincidence, but then accepting it means something, just nothing to do with geographic profiling and then claim serial offenders never hit close to home and then claim that arguments for doubting the Smith and Tabram stories are the same as doubting Long.

[Batman]

https://imgur.com/sTAMmAc

This is the hotzone (in red) and the direction of Mitre square to the apron piece (white line).

They line up so well that this is why the Marauder model is favorable.

[Sam Flynn]

The above post is a prime example as to why we should take Geo Profiling with a large pinch of salt

I think it says more about how the results are interpreted, and by whom, than geoprofiling itself. Same goes for psychological profiling, criminology or psychology itself, for that matter. You could swear that all one needs to do in order to be proficient is to read a few articles or watch a documentary or two; well, it doesn't work like that.

[Batman]

I think it says more about how the results are interpreted, and by whom, than geoprofiling itself. Same goes for psychological profiling, criminology or psychology itself, for that matter. You could swear that all one needs to do in order to be proficient is to read a few articles or watch a documentary or two; well, it doesn't work like that.

The geographic profile is not my doing.

I just laid it on top of an old map of Whitechapel with some JtR events on it.

summit.sfu.ca/system/files/iritems1/6820/b17675819.pdf
by DK Rossmo - 1995 - Cited by 106 - Related articles

https://www.txstate.edu/gii/geographic-profiling/overview.html

http://www.wesleyenglish.com/geoprofile/infamous-cases/jack-the-ripper/

[Herlock Sholmes]

Call me old-fashioned but I prefer the old common sense approach. Smith was attacked by a gang. How do we know this? She said so. Is there any good reason for her to lie? Nope. Was she in any way incapable of making herself understood? Nope. Therefore we have no reason to doubt her. She had a blunt implement inserted by a member of the gang and died the next day. Does this in any way, shape or form resemble Jack the Ripper? Nope.

Therefore, she wasn’t killed by Jack The Ripper.

Simples.

[Batman]

Call me old-fashioned but I prefer the old common sense approach. Smith was attacked by a gang. How do we know this? She said so. Is there any good reason for her to lie? Nope. Was she in any way incapable of making herself understood? Nope. Therefore we have no reason to doubt her. She had a blunt implement inserted by a member of the gang and died the next day. Does this in any way, shape or form resemble Jack the Ripper? Nope.

Therefore, she wasn’t killed by Jack The Ripper.

Simples.

This is a repeat of the stuff that is back several pages ago and since then the problems with that account have been put forward. Nothing in that passage is satisfactory given some investigators at the time, who were there, doubted all of that and gave reasons why they doubted it.

[etenguy]

This is a repeat of the stuff that is back several pages ago and since then the problems with that account have been put forward. Nothing in that passage is satisfactory given some investigators at the time, who were there, doubted all of that and gave reasons why they doubted it.

The issues with Smith's account of what happened, the delay in telling the police of the attack, the lack of blood at the site of the attack identified by Smith and the missing hours all point to some economy of the truth by Smith. It doesn't follow that JtR was the attacker however. While with Tabram we have some elements of a ripper type attack, there are none with Smith. There is no knife, stabbing or slicing, no mutilations etc... And she wasn't killed during the attack, but died later. I don't think the attacker deliberately set out to kill Smith - just to hurt her.