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Geoprofile of Jack the Ripper reveals Tabram and Nichols connection.

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  • #16
    From one fish to the rest of the school: Donīt bite.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
      From one fish to the rest of the school: Donīt bite.
      no intention of, but interesting to see the various takes on the subject

      Steve

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
        From one fish to the rest of the school: Donīt bite.
        From one Bat to a Fish, pinning JtR on a witness is probably the single most common thing new readers to cold-case crimes do. It's not too different from claiming the culprit is Colonel Mustard with the Candlestick in the Library. The same line of thinking that says the "butler did it".

        Good luck with it, but,
        Last edited by Batman; 10-19-2018, 10:33 AM.
        Bona fide canonical and then some.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by rjpalmer View Post
          Yes, I've read the claims in the flyer.

          Now show me how geographical profiling helped in the case of Robert Pickton or in the DC Sniper case as you quote.

          Profilers and their advocates have a very bad habit of claiming success in cases where they had no bearing whatsoever on the outcome. That's what makes it smell so heavily of pseudo-science.

          Seriously. I gave you the facts. Show me how a profile would have 'worked' in the DC sniper case. Malvo and Muhhamad were from a city 3,000 miles away and were entirely mobile. Picton lived 20 miles away, yet all his victims were picked up in a four-block area in downtown Vancouver. The police didn't even believe the cases were related and the murders were uncovered during a routine weapons search.
          Nobody is claiming it's a science. So it can't be a pseudo-science. It is a tool. That is all. It's no different than pinning points on a map, which is what investigators do! It adds mathematics. I'll take that over just pins of a map, thanks.

          What I have shown are the sources that support the claims I made in the thread. So it wasn't a joke. This is very much written on their own publications and documentation of the HITS system.

          As far as I am aware, Keppel and the system's use have been extensively published in forensic journals. Meaning peer-review.

          I accept there are some papers that claim geoprofiling is useless, but there are other papers demonstrating how it worked. Examples, include Richard Chase the Sac vampire and DeSavlo the Boston Strangler work. Whereas Yorkshire Ripper won't. That's why writing it off is probably not a good idea. Use it, check it, and you might make a hit, or might not. Also, this is the very same tool used during DNA dragnets that have often got the culprit. This is very important when it comes to expenses and logistics. Why you wouldn't want to use it is beyond me.

          How do you know that HITS wasn't used for other elements other than geographic profiling and how do you know how it was used in the context of the crimes? They don't specifically say geoprofiling and my reply to Trevor wasn't geoprofiling specific either but HITS specific.

          Basically, if people have problems with geoprofiling and HITS, then getting published in a peer-review journal is the way forward. Show Keppel he is wrong and get yourself published is my view.

          I am not going to be really using this thread to argue the merit and not of Keppel and geoprofiling. The fact it's landed where it has is significant enough for me to see it is working just fine here.
          Bona fide canonical and then some.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Batman View Post
            What I have shown are the sources that support the claims I made in the thread. So it wasn't a joke.
            Hi Batman. I don't want to come across as though I am needling you, but that's just it. The source you quoted is making false statements.

            I lived in the Pacific Northwest at the time of the Pickton murders and at the time of the investigation into Malvo and Muhammad. Geographical profiling had no bearing whatsoever in detecting those criminals. And in both cases the murderers were living a great distance from the scene of the crimes (or, in the latter case, had no home base whatsoever).

            Yet these cases are now being heralded as success stories?

            Clearly, undeniably, that is utterly misleading. Why doesn't it bother you?

            But, whatever. Carry on.

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            • #21
              This was done a few years back for a TV documentary.
              As I remember it,it was narrowed down to the killer living in Flower and Dean Street , and apparently this road at the time had seen a lot of police door to door activity.
              That said, I would assume any other street in the same proximity would have been just as likely, but at the end if the day surely it's all a 50/ 50 guess

              Regards

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Batman View Post
                In all geoprofile models it is the base from within which he radiates out from. In the commuter model, it is his point of arrival and he radiates out from there. In the Marauder model it is often a home. The model leans towards Marauder especially in light of Eddowes Apron.

                Geoprofiles don't generally find a murder in the hot zone at all. It is usually quite empty and nothing suspicious going on.

                This is not the case for the JtR geoprofile. Here we have a murder. Tabram. If something like was discovered with a modern serial offender unaware of geoprofiling it would probably be the most significant find of the case next to hard evidence.
                both the hot zone (or should we call it the home zone)and the direction of the apron drop after eddowes murder points to Hutchinson.
                "Is all that we see or seem
                but a dream within a dream?"

                -Edgar Allan Poe


                "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                -Frederick G. Abberline

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Sam Flynn View Post
                  Tabram's murder has significant differences compared to the Ripper murders. The fact that she was killed nearby (as Emma Smith was fatally wounded nearby) is more a reflection of how dangerous that tiny and densely-populated part of the East End was, than of any connection between Tabram's killer and the killer of Nichols, Chapman et al.
                  Hi sam
                  I disagree. I think it points more to an escalation in the crimes, especially if one takes into account the attack on millwood several months earlier.

                  theres no way the rippers MO sprung fully formed with his "first" attack on Nichols.


                  and seeing that Millwood was attacked close to where Tabram was, as these Maps exemplify, only strengthens the case that all three where ripper victims.
                  "Is all that we see or seem
                  but a dream within a dream?"

                  -Edgar Allan Poe


                  "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                  quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                  -Frederick G. Abberline

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Just in case you all have forgotten, we may actually donīt have to do any geographical mapping at all, since we actually have a man already who had a working path that took him through the killing fields on an every working day basis, and who had firm ties to the murders that occurred outside the Hanbury Street/old Montague street area. He seemingly fits every little bit of the requirements, and to boot, he was actually found standing close by a victim who was still bleeding from her wounds. And not only that, but ... well, you know.

                    Itīs party-crashing, I know - but I felt I should perhaps spare you the trouble of embarking on something that is very spurious and often leads down serious rabbit holes.

                    Now, back to the geo-mappings. Good luck, yīall!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                      Just in case you all have forgotten, we may actually donīt have to do any geographical mapping at all, since we actually have a man already who had a working path that took him through the killing fields on an every working day basis, and who had firm ties to the murders that occurred outside the Hanbury Street/old Montague street area. He seemingly fits every little bit of the requirements, and to boot, he was actually found standing close by a victim who was still bleeding from her wounds. And not only that, but ... well, you know.

                      Itīs party-crashing, I know - but I felt I should perhaps spare you the trouble of embarking on something that is very spurious and often leads down serious rabbit holes.

                      Now, back to the geo-mappings. Good luck, yīall!
                      Hi fish
                      I hear ya. I think it might have more merit in the ripper case as he was probably local, more than likely on foot and lived in the area.
                      I agree its kind of a pseudo science as is profiling in general. some of these FBI guys think they've solved every SK case (especially douglas).

                      I also agree with RJ re picton and Beltway sniper-Ilived through that one and boy did they sure jack the profile up on that one LOL! and geoprofiling dosnt work when it cases like this and picton. more useful if they know someone is local perhaps.


                      I mentioned the line batman showed on the map as being useful though because it shows more than likely the killer lived west of mitre square-which would include hutch, bury and of course-Lech.
                      "Is all that we see or seem
                      but a dream within a dream?"

                      -Edgar Allan Poe


                      "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                      quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                      -Frederick G. Abberline

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Abby Normal View Post
                        both the hot zone (or should we call it the home zone)and the direction of the apron drop after the murder points to Hutchinson.
                        So in effect Hutchison dropped the most incriminating piece of evidence a mere couple of ninutes walk from where he was apparently living at the time of the murders. Do you think this is likely?

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                        • #27
                          Geographical profiling, but it has it's limitations, particularly when more than one perpetrator is operating in the same area. Moreover, presumably the same analysis would also identify Emma Smith as a victim, ad she was assaulted close to where Tabram was murdered. Okay, I know she claimed to have been attacked by a gang, but that in itself adds weight to the theory that more than one individual was responsible for the Whitechapel murders.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by rjpalmer View Post
                            Hi Batman. I don't want to come across as though I am needling you, but that's just it. The source you quoted is making false statements.

                            I lived in the Pacific Northwest at the time of the Pickton murders and at the time of the investigation into Malvo and Muhammad. Geographical profiling had no bearing whatsoever in detecting those criminals. And in both cases the murderers were living a great distance from the scene of the crimes (or, in the latter case, had no home base whatsoever).

                            Yet these cases are now being heralded as success stories?

                            Clearly, undeniably, that is utterly misleading. Why doesn't it bother you?

                            But, whatever. Carry on.
                            https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...rticle1377538/

                            That says Rossmo was ignored which is why Pickton was ignored. It may not have to do with just geographical profiling. It may be related to Keppel's HITS which isn't just geoprofiling. Also geoprofiling takes into consideration commuting offenders as I discussed a few pages back. As for the DC Snipers, HITS may have done something else other than geographic profiling. As I said previously, my reference on Keppel was to do with HITS not just geographic profiling.

                            Geographic profiling can be hit or miss.

                            This thread is looking at it from the angle it has already landed on:
                            • A homicide.
                            • Victim's place of stay.


                            The hot zone did that. So I am certainly interested in it.
                            Bona fide canonical and then some.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Fisherman View Post
                              Just in case you all have forgotten, we may actually donīt have to do any geographical mapping at all, since we actually have a man already who had a working path that took him through the killing fields on an every working day basis, and who had firm ties to the murders that occurred outside the Hanbury Street/old Montague street area.
                              We haven't forgotten. You are currently engaged in defending that position in another thread with questions like why is he shouting to call people over if he has just murdered someone. People who testified to trying to avoid him because the area was so dark.

                              If geographic mapping pointed to the home of your Professor Plum with the lead pipe in the ballroom, you would be doing summersaults... but it obviously isn't.

                              Fitting suspects to all the evidence and not just some evidence to a suspect is how investigations move forward. This geographic profile is probably evidence and your suspect doesn't fit in. That suspect bias stuff is an automatic set of blinders when it comes to evidence. The amount that gets dismissed as coincidence is absurd.

                              It's interesting how many people who believe in coincidences now need this geographic profile to be yet another coincidence.
                              Bona fide canonical and then some.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by spyglass View Post
                                This was done a few years back for a TV documentary.
                                As I remember it,it was narrowed down to the killer living in Flower and Dean Street , and apparently this road at the time had seen a lot of police door to door activity.
                                That said, I would assume any other street in the same proximity would have been just as likely, but at the end if the day surely it's all a 50/ 50 guess

                                Regards
                                Yeah, the geographic profile is well known. It's the same Rossmo formula, so once you have the murder coordinates correct, it produces the same geographic profile. I just stuck it on a better quality map than the ones I have found. What I noticed was the old map of Whitechapel which some talented persons have brilliantly decided to annotate with JtR points of interests, has a ton of those points within the hot zone.

                                That's really interesting because you don't expect geographic profiles to do that at all.

                                Given Tabram is suspected of being JtR's 'first' victim, the hotzone being on top of her place of residence and just above where she was murdered is much more intriguing than I originally thought it was.

                                I'm going back to re-reading The Bank Holiday Murders by Tom Wescott because of this.
                                Bona fide canonical and then some.

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