JtR FINAL Victim Body to be exhumed

[packers stem]

Hi Sam
Counted 277 before i got to the point where they asked me to subscribe so you can probably add many,many more...
Suppose the last two victims had both pretended to be called Jane Smith then the odds would be shorter but the quite rare Mary Kelly???
48 in London(as a county) can we guess at there being maybe 2,3,4,5 possibly in spitalfields....

[Sam Flynn]

Thanks for the info, packers. Much appreciated.

I guess the trick is to see how often/likely "Mary Kelly" was used as a fake name. God knows how we'd find that out, though!

[Robert]

You have to make allowance for John Kelly, who may have influenced the surname albeit not the forename.

[packers stem]

That is true Robert but it shouldn't be ignored that the last two victims both used a name,whether they used it all the time or not, on the day they died they were , which in reality probably only belonged to a tiny handful of people in an area containing many thousands

[Robert]

Hi Packers

Well, I can't really assess the significance of the figures. When I did Mary Kelly, any age, county of London I got 209, IIRC. That's with a few Marys as middle names knocked off. That's higher than your figure, but that's because you limited it to ages 25 to 35. But Eddowes falls outside that age range, so you would have to widen your parameters somewhat.

I think I got about 2700 Mary Smiths of any age. The true figure will be lower because again there will be some Smiths with Mary as middle name and I was nowhere near those when I gave up clicking, so I was unable to count them.

[packers stem]

Hi Robert
The significance for me is that even if we up the age limit to 45 and estimate about 90 in london its still an extremely low number in a city of that size ....would surely be only half a dozen or so in the area relevent to the killings
Wasn't just a random 2 from 5 ....it was the last two ...
if you called over 5 people in a shopping mall ,what would be the chances of the last two to walk over having the same name....especially if it was uncommon name for the area

[GUT]

Hi Robert
The significance for me is that even if we up the age limit to 45 and estimate about 90 in london its still an extremely low number in a city of that size ....would surely be only half a dozen or so in the area relevent to the killings
Wasn't just a random 2 from 5 ....it was the last two ...
if you called over 5 people in a shopping mall ,what would be the chances of the last two to walk over having the same name....especially if it was uncommon name for the area

But they didn't have the same name.

One had a pawn ticket in that name, was it hers?

The other well who knows.

And we're they the last two, or merely two of a series?

[packers stem]

Hi Gut
Of course you are right ,they didn't have the same name but they were both using that name on the day they died and that makes it even more interesting in my view if they were both using an uncommon name as a pseudonym dont you think
And yes ,the last two in my opinion and that of the overwhelming majority

[packers stem]

Eddowes gave her name as Mary Ann Kelly and an address before she was released from custody

[Robert]

Hi Packers

So are you arguing that Kate and Mary were not chosen at random?

[packers stem]

Seems extremely unlikely to have been random to me Robert
I know that doesn't sit comfortably for most as motive appears and profiling flies out of the window but i find this impossible to ignore and pass off as coincidence personally
If it were any two out of twenty of thirty maybe but the last two from five!!
I would be interested in what a statistician would make of the likely odds against this happening by chance

[John Wheat]

I believe Bill Beadle mentioned the chances of the victims having certain names in his book 'Jack the Ripper Unmasked'.

[elmore 77]

I read somewhere that the name Kelly was commonly used as an alias for prostitutes,so probably not that unusual.

[GUT]

I read somewhere that the name Kelly was commonly used as an alias for prostitutes,so probably not that unusual.

G'day Elmore

I've heard that saud many times (on Casebook) but have no idea where it comes from, have you?

[elmore 77]

Hi Gut,
I take it to relate to the influx of Irish into London,so lots of Irish prostitutes