Patterns and Co-incidences

[NotBlamedForNothing]

From the killer's point of view, if he authored the Dear Boss letter [or knew about it], there would have been an added incentive to repeat on his last job, in Hanbury Street, as soon as possible, to give Central News the scoop he had promised. That would have made him even keener to find a second victim if he wasn't able to live up to his trade name in Dutfield's Yard, because of all the comings and goings there. Imagine his humiliation if the letter was published the next day and he'd only managed to slit his next victim's throat.

Or had he prepared for that possibility? You will soon hear of me with my funny little games.

It may have been a coincidence, but if we allow for the alternative, we have a pretty clear example here of cause and effect.

Not sure I would call a desire to live up to the trade name, cause and effect. Perhaps, free will and determination.

Same with the apron and the GSG. A serial killer will always try to blame someone or something else for his own failings. So I tend to see the message as Abby does, underlined by the apron piece, to blame local Jews for his need to kill a second woman that night, so he could mutilate this one and fulfil the Dear Boss prediction.

Dear Boss says nothing about blaming Jews - the author claims to be down on whores - so why assume a connection between it and the GSG?

"See what they made me do."

That interpretation ignores the tense of the GSG ...

The Juwes are the men that will not be blamed for nothing

"See what they made me do", would require something like this ...

The Juwes are the men that are not blamed for nothing

The real GSG is a prediction, not a statement of cause and effect.

And so it came to pass, with the confirmation arriving by way of the postcard postscript.

What did?

[Abby Normal]

Cheers Abby.

The psychology is spot on too, isn't it? Stride 'squealed a bit', as if the killer saw her as a sow, an animal to be hunted. If a hoaxer wrote this, they had a good handle on the situation, and instantly recognised the phenomenon of the double event. It would be decades before the rest of us caught up, due to known repeat offenders, including Ted Bundy, doing a Dutfield's Yard to Mitre Square of their own.

Love,

Caz
X

indeed caz. and the tone and content is so much like later confirmed serial killer communications its hard to believe a hoaxer nailed that part too.

[caz]

Cheers Abby.

The psychology is spot on too, isn't it? Stride 'squealed a bit', as if the killer saw her as a sow, an animal to be hunted. If a hoaxer wrote this, they had a good handle on the situation, and instantly recognised the phenomenon of the double event. It would be decades before the rest of us caught up, due to known repeat offenders, including Ted Bundy, doing a Dutfield's Yard to Mitre Square of their own.

Love,

Caz
X

[Abby Normal]

Hi etenguy,

From the killer's point of view, if he authored the Dear Boss letter [or knew about it], there would have been an added incentive to repeat on his last job, in Hanbury Street, as soon as possible, to give Central News the scoop he had promised. That would have made him even keener to find a second victim if he wasn't able to live up to his trade name in Dutfield's Yard, because of all the comings and goings there. Imagine his humiliation if the letter was published the next day and he'd only managed to slit his next victim's throat.

It may have been a coincidence, but if we allow for the alternative, we have a pretty clear example here of cause and effect.

Same with the apron and the GSG. A serial killer will always try to blame someone or something else for his own failings. So I tend to see the message as Abby does, underlined by the apron piece, to blame local Jews for his need to kill a second woman that night, so he could mutilate this one and fulfil the Dear Boss prediction. "See what they made me do."

And so it came to pass, with the confirmation arriving by way of the postcard postscript.

Love,

Caz
X

yes. and who but the killer would know about stride "squealed a bit" as in yelled out but not too loudly as a witness claimed? thats three things the writer of dear boss/saucy jack got right-starting again soon, cutting the ear off, and a victim squealing a bit.

.

to blame local Jews for his need to kill a second woman that night, so he could mutilate this one and fulfil the Dear Boss prediction.

succinct observation

[caz]

Indeed, Caz. And if we believe that the Dear Boss and Saucy Jack communications were not written by the murderer - there is the also the coincidence in relation to Eddowes ear lobe being cut off. As you say it almost makes you believe that the killer knew what was in those communications whether or not he was the author (so someone who knew the writer or someone who had access either from the police or the central news bureau). Or it was just a coincidence.

Hi etenguy,

From the killer's point of view, if he authored the Dear Boss letter [or knew about it], there would have been an added incentive to repeat on his last job, in Hanbury Street, as soon as possible, to give Central News the scoop he had promised. That would have made him even keener to find a second victim if he wasn't able to live up to his trade name in Dutfield's Yard, because of all the comings and goings there. Imagine his humiliation if the letter was published the next day and he'd only managed to slit his next victim's throat.

It may have been a coincidence, but if we allow for the alternative, we have a pretty clear example here of cause and effect.

Same with the apron and the GSG. A serial killer will always try to blame someone or something else for his own failings. So I tend to see the message as Abby does, underlined by the apron piece, to blame local Jews for his need to kill a second woman that night, so he could mutilate this one and fulfil the Dear Boss prediction. "See what they made me do."

And so it came to pass, with the confirmation arriving by way of the postcard postscript.

Love,

Caz
X

[Abby Normal]

While we are discussing coincidences, I guess the most well known and argued about is the GSG. The apron piece was coincidently left near a piece of graffiti that was ambiguous enough that some think it refers to the JtR murders. Or perhaps it actually does.

of course it does. the gsg is a disparaging statement against jews and the ripper was disturbed/seen/interupted by jewish men that night, one who had a very jewish appearance and pissed off the ripper so much he yelled a racial slur at him. way too much of a coincidence.

[etenguy]

While we are discussing coincidences, I guess the most well known and argued about is the GSG. The apron piece was coincidently left near a piece of graffiti that was ambiguous enough that some think it refers to the JtR murders. Or perhaps it actually does.

[etenguy]

all the murders took place at beginning of month, or end of month including millwood and tabram. the only odd one out (in my c7) is mckenzie who was killed in the middle of the month. but she was the last and killed much later compared to the other murders so perhaps his work pattern had changed?

That's right, if we stick with the C5 for the sake of a reasonable level of agreement about who was a victim of JtR, it was the end and then the beginning of each month the killings took place, with October missed out for some reason. It could tie in with a work pattern or some other life pattern that we don't know about.

[etenguy]

More of a remarkable coincidence for me is that the killer struck again within a few days of the Dear Boss letter being written and sent, threatening to get to work again right away, but before it was made public. If there had been no more murders after Hanbury Street, that letter would have been the dampest of damp squibs. But the murders didn't stop, and the timing was perfect. The author was even rewarded with an explosive double event on the very next occasion, resulting in the letter and the Saucy Jacky postcard spawning hundreds of mostly pale imitations and the 'trade name' taking on a life of its own.

It's almost as if the killer knew about the promise made on his behalf, and the author knew the killer would not let him down.

Love,

Caz
X

Indeed, Caz. And if we believe that the Dear Boss and Saucy Jack communications were not written by the murderer - there is the also the coincidence in relation to Eddowes ear lobe being cut off. As you say it almost makes you believe that the killer knew what was in those communications whether or not he was the author (so someone who knew the writer or someone who had access either from the police or the central news bureau). Or it was just a coincidence.

[Abby Normal]

all the murders took place at beginning of month, or end of month including millwood and tabram. the only odd one out (in my c7) is mckenzie who was killed in the middle of the month. but she was the last and killed much later compared to the other murders so perhaps his work pattern had changed?

[caz]

Hi Darryl

Quite possibly - though when we look at the double event, he seems quite determined and if we believe the interruption theory, he finds a second victim within the hour. But that may have been sheer chance on that particular day.

More of a remarkable coincidence for me is that the killer struck again within a few days of the Dear Boss letter being written and sent, threatening to get to work again right away, but before it was made public. If there had been no more murders after Hanbury Street, that letter would have been the dampest of damp squibs. But the murders didn't stop, and the timing was perfect. The author was even rewarded with an explosive double event on the very next occasion, resulting in the letter and the Saucy Jacky postcard spawning hundreds of mostly pale imitations and the 'trade name' taking on a life of its own.

It's almost as if the killer knew about the promise made on his behalf, and the author knew the killer would not let him down.

Love,

Caz
X

[Wickerman]

Or because the killer was a merchant seaman whose travels brought him back to London at differnet times !

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

If he was a merchant seaman, he visited other ports - so where are the similar murders in those ports?

[Trevor Marriott]

Between 1st an 2nd murder - 1 week
Between 2nd and double event - 3 weeks
Between double event and 5th murder - 5 weeks

This is probably down to the murders getting more difficult to achieve. More vigilance etc
Regards Darryl

Or because the killer was a merchant seaman whose travels brought him back to London at differnet times !

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[etenguy]

Of course I don’t think harshly of you.

The plethora of coincidences in the case is what keeps things rolling.

MrBarnett

You are quite right. The problem with some coincidences is that they can seem significant when they are not, because of the unlikeness of the coincidence happening. In a world of chaos, it seems too strange that some kind of order should emerge from sheer chance and a causal explanation is sought - if only to dismiss a causal relationship. Of course, if the dates had been different, we could probably still find a different pattern.

I have to tell you, though, when I first extrapolated from the date coincidence and found the unsolved murder of a young child in a very ripper like manner occurring exactly when it would be expected to maintain the sequence, I was taken aback. I could find none within a month or so either side of the date. But that's how coincidences grab your attention I guess.

Another coincidence, nothing to do with the murders, happened where I work. I work in a team of four. Three of us have our birthdays in December. Two of us have our birthdays on the same day and we were born in the same year. Clearly this is sheer chance, but I still find it surprising.

[etenguy]

https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/brow...=t18930206-244 I think this could be the same William Bailey as the article.

Hi Astatine

The age is about right, though he has changed occupation from a French polisher to a fishmonger. Could well be the same guy. I think it is the same detective too (Mr Saunders).