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  #21  
Old 04-13-2017, 04:50 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Default Bucks Row Project part 1 post 9

Now we reach a crucial part of this work, and indeed one of the reasons I began this project in the first place.
Some Pro-Lechmere researchers have produced an hypothesis which is often referred to as “the blood evidence” but would more accurately be called the “bleeding time evidence”.
The theory is based on a sound medical basis, supported by a medical expert Jason Payne-James, that blood from cuts will stop being under pressure or free flowing after a relatively short period of time. This is not the place to discuss that in detail as I will be raising it in part three of The Bucks Row Project.
Suffice to say the theory says that blood will not be seen to be free flowing after a few minutes, this time is not exact, but 3-7 is a good range for this.
It has been proposed that both PC’s Neil and Mizen reported free flowing blood which allows Lechmere to be placed at the murder scene at the time the killer wound is inflicted, this is hotly disputed and again it shall be addressed in the second part of the work.
Here I shall limit myself to looking at the likely time that Neil and Mizen arrived at Bucks Row and if their reported and disputed comments are viable given the science involved and if they support the hypothesis from that point of view.
There is some debate over which cuts came first, neck or abdomen and which killed, I shall discuss this in part 3 in detail. However whichever wounds were first they were probably the cause of death, and so we can use the start of the attack as a point for the killer cut.
let us look at PC Neil

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Let me give a brief commentary on this table.

Column one gives set points

1. The time that the first cut is made before Paul is seen by Lechmere.

2. The time that is taken by Paul and Lechmere walking towards each other.

3. The verbal exchange between Paul and Lechmere and the checking of Nichols body, 1.5 minutes seems a reasonable figure.

4. The time taken to walk to the bottom of Queen Ann street by Paul and Lechmere from the murder site ( possible place they passed Neil and were unseen by him).

5. Minimum time taken by Neil if he was at mid point in Queen Ann street to reach the murder site

Column 2 assumes a short attack on Nichols, and by Lechmere who moves from the body unseen by Paul in this time. (recent debate suggests that this may be too short a time given the degree of wounds).

Column 3 assumes a longer attack on Nichols, and by Lechmere who moves from the body unseen by Paul in this time.

Column 4 assumes a short attack by not Lechmere, in which case the killer has to move unseen and unheard by Lechmere, I have allowed an additional 30 seconds for this. (recent debate suggests that this may be too short a time given the degree of wounds).

column 5 assumes a longer attack by not Lechmere, in which case the killer has to move unseen and unheard by Lechmere, I have allowed an additional 30 seconds for this.

We can see that using the shortest possible option, with Lechmere as the killer, that Neil cannot arrived less than 6 minutes 55 seconds after the killer cut, be that throat or abdomen occurs. And if one goes for a longer attack this increases to 9 minutes.

While 6 minutes 55 seconds cannot be completely ruled out in allowing Neil to see free flowing blood, it is getting to the higher end of the range that Payne-James, the expert who’s views are used as the scientific basis for the hypothesis, suggests is reasonable:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman View Post

It is part of a e-mail exchange where I have asked Jason Payne-James if I could quote him, and he has given his consent. Here it is, my questions in red, his answers in blue:

Just how quickly CAN a person with the kind of damage that Nichols had bleed out, if we have nothing that hinders the bloodflow, and if the victim is flat on level ground? Can a total desanguination take place in very few minutes in such a case?

Yes

Do you know of any examples? No

Is it possible for such a person to bleed out completely and stop bleeding in three minutes? In five? In seven?I guess blood may continue to flow for up to this amount of time, but the shorter periods are more likely to be more realistic.
.
If we do hit 9 minutes, as is indeed possible, this becomes unlikely according to Payne-James.

We must also allow that if the killer was not Lechmere, and he did not see the killer, we actually have no idea how long before Lechmere arrived the attack was made.

If blood was still flowing that would help according to Payne-James, however if blood was seen flowing is a very controversial issue .

There is also some debate about what stopping bleeding means, both issues will be looked at in detail in the third part of this work.

Finally I have assumed that Neil was walking at the regulation night speed of 3mph, in a previous post I have acknowledged that some have suggest that the daytime rate of 2.5mph was used, while I have not included that in the above table it would add 24 seconds onto the times for PC Neil.

What can therefore be said about Neil and the “bleeding time “ hypothesis?

It is just possible at the bottom range of possible arrival times, that Neil may have arrived in time to see flowing blood.
However those timings, while allowing for many options, did not allow for several things, such as it has already been demonstrated in this report that the walk towards Paul by Lechmere may have taken slightly longer than 25 seconds, and the exchange and examination could have taken longer than 90 seconds.

We will need to asses Neil’s situation in detail in Part 3, looking in detail at what he claimed to see, and what effect more than one serious wound may have on the bleed time.

We can now do the same analyses for PC Mizen


On the following table the columns remain the same as in the table for PC Neil, until we arrive at walk to Mizen, this gives an estimate for the walk of Paul and Lechmere based on the figures suggested earlier in this report.

We then have a row for the exchange between Mizen and the Carmen, and his doing one final knock up, some may dispute this estimate, but it cannot in all honesty be much shorter and could be longer. At this point a running total of time is added as an additional row


We then have a series of rows allowing for different rates at which Mizen may have walked back to Bucks Row, and totals for each option. In this example I have included a speed at 2.5mph, I do not consider it even likely that he progressed at this pace but decided to include it for completeness


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We end up with a range of 9 minutes 35 seconds – 14minutes 14seconds ( I would however discount this figure and used 13 minutes 31 seconds instead, as I can see no possibility of Mizen walking at 2.5 mph)

This is somewhat longer than the range that Payne-James suggested was believable above.

However this is not the end of the story; Mizen is reported as seeing flowing blood, however at least one report says this was after he returned with the ambulance.
Has we have already seen, the fastest possible time to get the ambulance would be at least 14 minutes plus some exchange at the police station. Even if we cut this exchange to a few seconds, We end up with a range of 9 minutes 35 seconds – 14minutes 14seconds ( I would however discount this figure and used 13 minutes 31 seconds instead, as I can see no possibility of Mizen walking at 2.5 mph)

This is somewhat longer than the range that Payne-James suggested was believable above.

However this is not the end of the story; Mizen is reported as seeing flowing blood, however at least one report says this was after he returned with the ambulance.
Has we have already seen, the fastest possible time to get the ambulance would be at least 14 minutes plus some exchange at the police station. Even if we cut this exchange to a few seconds,
we are left with a combined shortest time for Mizen’s report of 9minutes 35 seconds to reach Bucks Row + 14 minutes minimum to go for and return with the ambulance that gives a total minimum time from killer cut to viewing of 23 minutes 35 seconds,

It seems clear that Mizen could not see free flowing blood, the idea is completely unviable and certainly not realistic when compared to the actual hypothesis.

He may however have seen blood run, when the body was moved and wounds may have reopened to an extent, that is a different thing which we shall look at in Part 3.

There ends PART 1
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  #22  
Old 04-13-2017, 07:19 AM
Kattrup Kattrup is offline
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Thank you for this first part.

A very thorough approach. Personally I would like a more sourcebased analysis, for instance about the claims of seeing blood flow etc. It is clear that the phrasing is far from clear.

At any rate, your work here shows how extremely difficult it is to assess timings and like details with any precision.

The main advantage of such an undertaking is therefore, in my opinion, that it shows how many assumptions must be made to reach misleading or indeed manipulative statements like "the timings really fit Lechmere" or "there's a time gap" or similar.


I hope you don't find my comment too negative - but the sheer number of assumptions that you must make in order to reach any kind of conclusion is in itself interesting, as it, as I said, shows the futility of pinpointing important and pseudoimportant details.

A few other comments: I think you do the PCs a disservice when you say they would not hurry particularly to fetch a doctor, since Nichols was already dead. Rather, they understood the importance of swift action, I believe they would have run, not walked somewhat faster then usual.

Also, wheeling a large cart along the dark and cobbled streets would surely have slowed down even a fit PC considerably. I do not think it would be unreasonable to allow for a greater delay than you have admitted.


I look forward to reading your parts two and three
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  #23  
Old 04-13-2017, 07:53 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kattrup View Post
Thank you for this first part.

A very thorough approach. Personally I would like a more sourcebased analysis, for instance about the claims of seeing blood flow etc. It is clear that the phrasing is far from clear.

At any rate, your work here shows how extremely difficult it is to assess timings and like details with any precision.

The main advantage of such an undertaking is therefore, in my opinion, that it shows how many assumptions must be made to reach misleading or indeed manipulative statements like "the timings really fit Lechmere" or "there's a time gap" or similar.


I hope you don't find my comment too negative - but the sheer number of assumptions that you must make in order to reach any kind of conclusion is in itself interesting, as it, as I said, shows the futility of pinpointing important and pseudoimportant details.

A few other comments: I think you do the PCs a disservice when you say they would not hurry particularly to fetch a doctor, since Nichols was already dead. Rather, they understood the importance of swift action, I believe they would have run, not walked somewhat faster then usual.

Also, wheeling a large cart along the dark and cobbled streets would surely have slowed down even a fit PC considerably. I do not think it would be unreasonable to allow for a greater delay than you have admitted.


I look forward to reading your parts two and three


Hi Kattrup

Thanks for the comments.

Firstly the source based analysis comes in part 3.

Yes it is not possible to be pricise about much of the debate, however I do think it is possible to show probably quickest times in some instances.

For instance the issue of Paul not seeing lechmere until Bucks Row; the timings clearly demonstrate that he did not have to see Lechmere until he reached Bucks Row, which is contrary to the view take by some that he must have.

On your comment about the police running for the Doctor, that obviously is a matter of opinion and I do not rule out a faster approach by Thain, however at present I see no reason to believe he ran.

If he did indeed we have no way of judging how fast, however I do include a speed of 5mph in the table, the figures are there to see and such a pace is considered by some to be jogging; maybe another data set could be added, however i am not sure how high we would set it.

To be fair I do have him walking considerable faster than standard.

I agree with you entirely about the cart; however the exercise was undertaken purely to demonstrate the fastest possible time it could have taken.
My personal view would be closer to 20 minutes than the 14 I mention.


Do you have any other comments about any of the timing issues as the plan is to take all into account before posting conclusions.

Far from being negative I consider the comments constructive and I shall take them on board; that after all is the purpose of the exercise.


Cheers


Steve

Last edited by Elamarna : 04-13-2017 at 07:59 AM.
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  #24  
Old 04-13-2017, 10:38 AM
John G John G is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elamarna View Post
When PC Mizen arrived at Bucks Row he was asked to go and get an ambulance, Inspector Abberline tell us this was from Bethnal Green Police station.

Once again using the maps quoted earlier it is possible to look at this and decided on the two most direct routes.


Attachment 17990
* route no longer exists but speed for route 1 used
** route walked by David Barrat.

We must take into account that while Mizen may not have pushed the ambulance himself, it cannot be discounted and certainly he returned with it. This was heavy and it is likely it would not take as short a time on the return journey as that going to get it.
We must also allow for some interaction at the station, given that others returned with him, and the time to actually get the ambulance which may only have been a few seconds, but could conceivable be longer.

David Barrat who posts as David Orsam has walked the first of the two routes and did this in exactly 7mins which suggests he is walking at 5mph, the route has not changed since 1888.

So assuming that Mizen could do this in the same time we have a return time of :

7 minutes trip to station.
7 minutes trip back.
Interaction 2 minutes we have a return time of 16minutes

However it is more likely that the trip would take longer and 4 miles an hour is probably the best that could be achieved over the distance, possible much slower, this gives us a return time of over 19 minutes.

This will have serious implication for the next section of the project.
Just an initial observation Steve. I walk pretty quickly, however, my average speed, as measured over a 1.2 mile, virtually straight, distance is just under 4 miles an hour. Any faster than that and I'd be running! I would therefore agree that, in this respect, your conclusions are very reasonable.
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  #25  
Old 04-13-2017, 10:58 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John G View Post
Just an initial observation Steve. I walk pretty quickly, however, my average speed, as measured over a 1.2 mile, virtually straight, distance is just under 4 miles an hour. Any faster than that and I'd be running! I would therefore agree that, in this respect, your conclusions are very reasonable.
John

That is one reason I have gone for 3.5mph as my preferred speed. It's quick but not ridiculously so. And of course I give options for speeds from 3 to 5mph on most tables.
The idea is for people to look and say what they think is reasonable with reasons for that.

I guess therefore this is a little different from most threads; But I said in October how I was going to do this.

Steve
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  #26  
Old 04-13-2017, 05:38 PM
Varqm Varqm is offline
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That's good.We can see the different possibilities.I would assume they would take the shortest routes in going to work since they have been going to it for some time.But sometimes who knows one could take a different route for a change,I don't see how it would make them late.
One thing, what did they used to state their time, for ex. Lechmere or Paul leaving their homes, and how reliable.

Last edited by Varqm : 04-13-2017 at 05:45 PM.
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  #27  
Old 04-13-2017, 09:07 PM
Robert St Devil Robert St Devil is offline
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based on the graph in post 5, 316 yards from murder site to mizen
3 to 3.5 mph is the best suggestion
didn,t paul say the whole interaction from cross to mizen happen in 4 minutes?
Subtracting a 1/2 minute to one minute allowance for the cross-paul interaction, the speed of their walk ranges between 90 to 105 ypm.

certain i,m rehashing another thread
if there was a known average for the rate at which the further extremities [beyond the elbow] lost temperature compared to the near extremities [before] ...
that could average the duration from her death
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  #28  
Old 04-14-2017, 02:23 AM
Pierre Pierre is offline
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Hi Steve,

You write:

Quote:
This information will allow us to look at what has been called “the blood Evidence” and to see if it holds up when applied against realistic timings,
There are two serious research problems here:

1. There is no valid data for the so called "blood evidence", operationalized as "blood oozing" or even "flowing", since the use of the expression in Victorian times often was resultative. "Blood oozing" was said by doctors and others to have been observed by them at times after death when blood had stopped coming out of the observed bodies.

2. Therefore, applying the non valid and non reliable hypothesis about a "blood evidence" against "realistic timings" is not generating scientific knowledge.

Best wishes, Pierre
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  #29  
Old 04-14-2017, 02:35 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Varqm View Post
That's good.We can see the different possibilities.I would assume they would take the shortest routes in going to work since they have been going to it for some time.But sometimes who knows one could take a different route for a change,I don't see how it would make them late.
One thing, what did they used to state their time, for ex. Lechmere or Paul leaving their homes, and how reliable.
Yes one does not always take the shortest route and I prefer the second shortest myself, less walking on main roads and so less probability of any delays, but honestly it could be any of those I list or even maybe one I have not considered.
That as kattrub rightly says give us slot to guess at.

The times given for leaving home are based on the statements of Paul and Lechmere.
Neither is backed by any independent source and that is why I say absolute times are all but impossible to set..

Steve
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  #30  
Old 04-14-2017, 02:42 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert St Devil View Post
based on the graph in post 5, 316 yards from murder site to mizen
3 to 3.5 mph is the best suggestion
didn,t paul say the whole interaction from cross to mizen happen in 4 minutes?
Subtracting a 1/2 minute to one minute allowance for the cross-paul interaction, the speed of their walk ranges between 90 to 105 ypm.

certain i,m rehashing another thread
if there was a known average for the rate at which the further extremities [beyond the elbow] lost temperature compared to the near extremities [before] ...
that could average the duration from her death
The issue of Paul saying it took less than 4 minutes is something I will address in part 3.

I see you allow 1 min max for exchange between Paul and Lechmere and as I said in the first post, this and the exchange with mizen and Llewellyn getting dressed are guess work and can be no more.

I allow 1minute 30 for this exchange but can accept 1 minute happily; less just does not seem likely to me. Just too much to happen in my view.


Not sure that will be of any help even if there were figures as no temperatures were taken so any observations made at the time are subjective .
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