Now we reach a crucial part of this work, and indeed one of the reasons I began this project in the first place.
Some Pro-Lechmere researchers have produced an hypothesis which is often referred to as “the blood evidence” but would more accurately be called the “bleeding time evidence”.
The theory is based on a sound medical basis, supported by a medical expert Jason Payne-James, that blood from cuts will stop being under pressure or free flowing after a relatively short period of time. This is not the place to discuss that in detail as I will be raising it in part three of The Bucks Row Project.
Suffice to say the theory says that blood will not be seen to be free flowing after a few minutes, this time is not exact, but 3-7 is a good range for this.
It has been proposed that both PC’s Neil and Mizen reported free flowing blood which allows Lechmere to be placed at the murder scene at the time the killer wound is inflicted, this is hotly disputed and again it shall be addressed in the second part of the work.
Here I shall limit myself to looking at the likely time that Neil and Mizen arrived at Bucks Row and if their reported and disputed comments are viable given the science involved and if they support the hypothesis from that point of view.
There is some debate over which cuts came first, neck or abdomen and which killed, I shall discuss this in part 3 in detail. However whichever wounds were first they were probably the cause of death, and so we can use the start of the attack as a point for the killer cut.
let us look at PC Neil
Let me give a brief commentary on this table.
Column one gives set points
1. The time that the first cut is made before Paul is seen by Lechmere.
2. The time that is taken by Paul and Lechmere walking towards each other.
3. The verbal exchange between Paul and Lechmere and the checking of Nichols body, 1.5 minutes seems a reasonable figure.
4. The time taken to walk to the bottom of Queen Ann street by Paul and Lechmere from the murder site ( possible place they passed Neil and were unseen by him).
5. Minimum time taken by Neil if he was at mid point in Queen Ann street to reach the murder site
Column 2 assumes a short attack on Nichols, and by Lechmere who moves from the body unseen by Paul in this time. (recent debate suggests that this may be too short a time given the degree of wounds).
Column 3 assumes a longer attack on Nichols, and by Lechmere who moves from the body unseen by Paul in this time.
Column 4 assumes a short attack by not Lechmere, in which case the killer has to move unseen and unheard by Lechmere, I have allowed an additional 30 seconds for this. (recent debate suggests that this may be too short a time given the degree of wounds).
column 5 assumes a longer attack by not Lechmere, in which case the killer has to move unseen and unheard by Lechmere, I have allowed an additional 30 seconds for this.
We can see that using the shortest possible option, with Lechmere as the killer, that Neil cannot arrived less than 6 minutes 55 seconds after the killer cut, be that throat or abdomen occurs. And if one goes for a longer attack this increases to 9 minutes.
While 6 minutes 55 seconds cannot be completely ruled out in allowing Neil to see free flowing blood, it is getting to the higher end of the range that Payne-James, the expert who’s views are used as the scientific basis for the hypothesis, suggests is reasonable:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman
It is part of a e-mail exchange where I have asked Jason Payne-James if I could quote him, and he has given his consent. Here it is, my questions in red, his answers in blue:
Just how quickly CAN a person with the kind of damage that Nichols had bleed out, if we have nothing that hinders the bloodflow, and if the victim is flat on level ground? Can a total desanguination take place in very few minutes in such a case?
Yes
Do you know of any examples? No
Is it possible for such a person to bleed out completely and stop bleeding in three minutes? In five? In seven?I guess blood may continue to flow for up to this amount of time, but the shorter periods are more likely to be more realistic.
.
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If we do hit 9 minutes, as is indeed possible, this becomes unlikely according to Payne-James.
We must also allow that if the killer was not Lechmere, and he did not see the killer, we actually have no idea how long before Lechmere arrived the attack was made.
If blood was still flowing that would help according to Payne-James, however if blood was seen flowing is a very controversial issue .
There is also some debate about what stopping bleeding means, both issues will be looked at in detail in the third part of this work.
Finally I have assumed that Neil was walking at the regulation night speed of 3mph, in a previous post I have acknowledged that some have suggest that the daytime rate of 2.5mph was used, while I have not included that in the above table it would add 24 seconds onto the times for PC Neil.
What can therefore be said about Neil and the “bleeding time “ hypothesis?
It is just possible at the bottom range of possible arrival times, that Neil may have arrived in time to see flowing blood.
However those timings, while allowing for many options, did not allow for several things, such as it has already been demonstrated in this report that the walk towards Paul by Lechmere may have taken slightly longer than 25 seconds, and the exchange and examination could have taken longer than 90 seconds.
We will need to asses Neil’s situation in detail in Part 3, looking in detail at what he claimed to see, and what effect more than one serious wound may have on the bleed time.
We can now do the same analyses for PC Mizen
On the following table the columns remain the same as in the table for PC Neil, until we arrive at walk to Mizen, this gives an estimate for the walk of Paul and Lechmere based on the figures suggested earlier in this report.
We then have a row for the exchange between Mizen and the Carmen, and his doing one final knock up, some may dispute this estimate, but it cannot in all honesty be much shorter and could be longer. At this point a running total of time is added as an additional row
We then have a series of rows allowing for different rates at which Mizen may have walked back to Bucks Row, and totals for each option. In this example I have included a speed at 2.5mph, I do not consider it even likely that he progressed at this pace but decided to include it for completeness
We end up with a range of 9 minutes 35 seconds – 14minutes 14seconds ( I would however discount this figure and used 13 minutes 31 seconds instead, as I can see no possibility of Mizen walking at 2.5 mph)
This is somewhat longer than the range that Payne-James suggested was believable above.
However this is not the end of the story; Mizen is reported as seeing flowing blood, however at least one report says this was after he returned with the ambulance.
Has we have already seen, the fastest possible time to get the ambulance would be at least 14 minutes plus some exchange at the police station. Even if we cut this exchange to a few seconds, We end up with a range of 9 minutes 35 seconds – 14minutes 14seconds ( I would however discount this figure and used 13 minutes 31 seconds instead, as I can see no possibility of Mizen walking at 2.5 mph)
This is somewhat longer than the range that Payne-James suggested was believable above.
However this is not the end of the story; Mizen is reported as seeing flowing blood, however at least one report says this was after he returned with the ambulance.
Has we have already seen, the fastest possible time to get the ambulance would be at least 14 minutes plus some exchange at the police station. Even if we cut this exchange to a few seconds,
we are left with a combined shortest time for Mizen’s report of 9minutes 35 seconds to reach Bucks Row + 14 minutes minimum to go for and return with the ambulance that gives a total minimum time from killer cut to viewing of 23 minutes 35 seconds,
It seems clear that Mizen could not see free flowing blood, the idea is completely unviable and certainly not realistic when compared to the actual hypothesis.
He may however have seen blood run, when the body was moved and wounds may have reopened to an extent, that is a different thing which we shall look at in Part 3.
There ends PART 1