Thread: Value of a lie
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Old 08-20-2017, 02:04 AM
Elamarna Elamarna is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2014
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post

Dear Steve, what does this mean: "certainly not" "Or indeed just one of them"?

First certain then "or" ?

Certain of "not two" but then an alternative one? Why?
My dear Pierre,
I am attempting to respond to your hypothesis on the Scam, for which there is little supporting data at present, without discussing my Hypothesis.
Overall that's extremely difficult as neither of us are at this point prepared to give supporting data.

My point which you seem to be having difficulty in understanding, or maybe which I am not explaining clearly. (Could be either or a mixture of both). Was that Neil was very clear there was no one else around when he first saw the body of Nichols and thus he could not have sent anyone to find another constable, a point I assume you accept.
This was the point I was making to Harry and Robert.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
I think this is getting less and less reliable.

It's nothing to do with my Hypothesis on the Scam, I am trying to steer away from that as far as possible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post

I hope not based on estimation of minutes as well.
Your complete aversion to timing does at times leave me bemused.

Yes of course short periods of time based on calculations are not foolproof and I will go further short periods show very little.
One cannot use them to prove anything conclusively. The longer the period the more such becomes a possibility.

However when used to see if testimony stands up to what is physically possible timings can be useful, but certainly not definitive.
A good example being Paul's statement that it took no more than 4 minutes from first seeing the body to meeting Mizen.

Timings suggest, I emphasis suggest, that this is likely to be a reasonably accurate estimate, with of course a small margin of error.

Timings while indeed mentioned in my Hypothesis are not central to it, indeed I will go as far as to say they are peripheral and have no bearing on the conclusion.

I only use timings to see what is physically possible, not what is probable.




Steve
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